Recent polling for Victoria’s November 28 state election shows a tight three-way primary-vote contest among Labor, the Liberal–National Coalition and One Nation, with the latter consistently recording 22–27 percent support and frequently placing just behind or level with the majors. This positioning, reinforced by leadership transitions in late July and early August, has made One Nation the clear frontrunner in the market for third place. Smaller parties such as the Greens remain anchored well below 15 percent, while residual support for other minor parties and independents is fragmented, leaving little room for any of them to overtake One Nation on primary votes. Trader pricing therefore reflects the narrow but durable gap separating One Nation from the two larger blocs in the latest Resolve, DemosAU and Roy Morgan surveys.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourÉlection parlementaire de Victoria : 3e place
Élection parlementaire de Victoria : 3e place
One Nation 81%
Labor 13%
Liberal–National 4.0%
Greens 4.0%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
28 nov. 2026
One Nation
81%
Labor
13%
Liberal–National
4%
Greens
4%
Animal Justice
4%
Legalise Cannabis
4%
Shooters, Fishers, Farmers
4%
Libertarian
4%
One Nation 81%
Labor 13%
Liberal–National 4.0%
Greens 4.0%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
28 nov. 2026
One Nation
$0 Vol.
81%
Labor
$4 Vol.
13%
Liberal–National
$0 Vol.
4%
Greens
$0 Vol.
4%
Animal Justice
$0 Vol.
4%
Legalise Cannabis
$0 Vol.
4%
Shooters, Fishers, Farmers
$0 Vol.
4%
Libertarian
$0 Vol.
4%
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the third-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).Recent polling for Victoria’s November 28 state election shows a tight three-way primary-vote contest among Labor, the Liberal–National Coalition and One Nation, with the latter consistently recording 22–27 percent support and frequently placing just behind or level with the majors. This positioning, reinforced by leadership transitions in late July and early August, has made One Nation the clear frontrunner in the market for third place. Smaller parties such as the Greens remain anchored well below 15 percent, while residual support for other minor parties and independents is fragmented, leaving little room for any of them to overtake One Nation on primary votes. Trader pricing therefore reflects the narrow but durable gap separating One Nation from the two larger blocs in the latest Resolve, DemosAU and Roy Morgan surveys.
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the third-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the third-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
Marché ouvert : Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ET
Volume
$4Date de fin
28 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the third-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).Recent polling for Victoria’s November 28 state election shows a tight three-way primary-vote contest among Labor, the Liberal–National Coalition and One Nation, with the latter consistently recording 22–27 percent support and frequently placing just behind or level with the majors. This positioning, reinforced by leadership transitions in late July and early August, has made One Nation the clear frontrunner in the market for third place. Smaller parties such as the Greens remain anchored well below 15 percent, while residual support for other minor parties and independents is fragmented, leaving little room for any of them to overtake One Nation on primary votes. Trader pricing therefore reflects the narrow but durable gap separating One Nation from the two larger blocs in the latest Resolve, DemosAU and Roy Morgan surveys.
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the third-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the third-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
Volume
$4Date de fin
28 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling for Victoria’s November 28 state election shows a tight three-way primary-vote contest among Labor, the Liberal–National Coalition and One Nation, with the latter consistently recording 22–27 percent support and frequently placing just behind or level with the majors. This positioning, reinforced by leadership transitions in late July and early August, has made One Nation the clear frontrunner in the market for third place. Smaller parties such as the Greens remain anchored well below 15 percent, while residual support for other minor parties and independents is fragmented, leaving little room for any of them to overtake One Nation on primary votes. Trader pricing therefore reflects the narrow but durable gap separating One Nation from the two larger blocs in the latest Resolve, DemosAU and Roy Morgan surveys.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourConnexes
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Will Liberal–National win the most seats in the next Victorian state election?
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Will New Zealand First Party win the third-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
54%
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