Recent polling across multiple firms shows the Liberal–National Coalition maintaining a consistent two-party preferred lead of roughly 54–46 to 56–44 over Labor ahead of the November 28 election, driven by sustained low primary support for Labor around 24–25 percent. The Coalition’s primary vote has held in the high 20s to low 30s while One Nation draws 22–25 percent, fragmenting the vote on the right and complicating Labor’s path to retaining seats. Leadership transitions—Ben Carroll replacing Jacinta Allan as Labor Premier in late July and Warren Pickering taking One Nation’s helm in August—have not reversed the trend, with the Coalition also ahead on preferred premier measures. These patterns, stable through September surveys, underpin trader consensus favoring a Coalition outcome while assigning lower probabilities to Labor or minor parties.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLiberal–National 71%
Labor 22%
One Nation 9.3%
Greens <1%
$14,681 Vol.
$14,681 Vol.
28 nov. 2026
Liberal–National
71%
Labor
22%
One Nation
9%
Greens
<1%
Liberal–National 71%
Labor 22%
One Nation 9.3%
Greens <1%
$14,681 Vol.
$14,681 Vol.
28 nov. 2026
Liberal–National
$6,984 Vol.
71%
Labor
$3,487 Vol.
22%
One Nation
$3,600 Vol.
9%
Greens
$611 Vol.
<1%
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).Recent polling across multiple firms shows the Liberal–National Coalition maintaining a consistent two-party preferred lead of roughly 54–46 to 56–44 over Labor ahead of the November 28 election, driven by sustained low primary support for Labor around 24–25 percent. The Coalition’s primary vote has held in the high 20s to low 30s while One Nation draws 22–25 percent, fragmenting the vote on the right and complicating Labor’s path to retaining seats. Leadership transitions—Ben Carroll replacing Jacinta Allan as Labor Premier in late July and Warren Pickering taking One Nation’s helm in August—have not reversed the trend, with the Coalition also ahead on preferred premier measures. These patterns, stable through September surveys, underpin trader consensus favoring a Coalition outcome while assigning lower probabilities to Labor or minor parties.
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
Marché ouvert : Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ET
Volume
$14,681Date de fin
28 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).Recent polling across multiple firms shows the Liberal–National Coalition maintaining a consistent two-party preferred lead of roughly 54–46 to 56–44 over Labor ahead of the November 28 election, driven by sustained low primary support for Labor around 24–25 percent. The Coalition’s primary vote has held in the high 20s to low 30s while One Nation draws 22–25 percent, fragmenting the vote on the right and complicating Labor’s path to retaining seats. Leadership transitions—Ben Carroll replacing Jacinta Allan as Labor Premier in late July and Warren Pickering taking One Nation’s helm in August—have not reversed the trend, with the Coalition also ahead on preferred premier measures. These patterns, stable through September surveys, underpin trader consensus favoring a Coalition outcome while assigning lower probabilities to Labor or minor parties.
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
Volume
$14,681Date de fin
28 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling across multiple firms shows the Liberal–National Coalition maintaining a consistent two-party preferred lead of roughly 54–46 to 56–44 over Labor ahead of the November 28 election, driven by sustained low primary support for Labor around 24–25 percent. The Coalition’s primary vote has held in the high 20s to low 30s while One Nation draws 22–25 percent, fragmenting the vote on the right and complicating Labor’s path to retaining seats. Leadership transitions—Ben Carroll replacing Jacinta Allan as Labor Premier in late July and Warren Pickering taking One Nation’s helm in August—have not reversed the trend, with the Coalition also ahead on preferred premier measures. These patterns, stable through September surveys, underpin trader consensus favoring a Coalition outcome while assigning lower probabilities to Labor or minor parties.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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