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icon for Prochain Premier ministre de Victoria
Politique·Australie

Prochain Premier ministre de Victoria

icon for Prochain Premier ministre de Victoria
Politique·Australie

Prochain Premier ministre de Victoria

Jess Wilson 64%

Ben Carroll 21%

Warren Pickering 14%

David Southwick 9.7%

Polymarket

$10,677 Vol.

Jess Wilson 64%

Ben Carroll 21%

Warren Pickering 14%

David Southwick 9.7%

Polymarket

$10,677 Vol.

icon for Jess Wilson

Jess Wilson

$1,017 Vol.

64%

icon for Ben Carroll

Ben Carroll

$643 Vol.

21%

icon for Warren Pickering

Warren Pickering

$978 Vol.

14%

icon for David Southwick

David Southwick

$50 Vol.

10%

icon for Gabrielle Williams

Gabrielle Williams

$50 Vol.

8%

icon for Emma Kealy

Emma Kealy

$1,028 Vol.

5%

icon for Jacinta Allan

Jacinta Allan

$192 Vol.

4%

icon for Sonya Kilkenny

Sonya Kilkenny

$100 Vol.

8%

icon for Steve Dimopoulos

Steve Dimopoulos

$100 Vol.

7%

icon for James Newbury

James Newbury

$1,066 Vol.

<1%

icon for Brad Battin

Brad Battin

$1,028 Vol.

<1%

icon for Danny O'Brien

Danny O'Brien

$1,303 Vol.

<1%

icon for Ellen Sandell

Ellen Sandell

$1,028 Vol.

<1%

icon for Jaclyn Symes

Jaclyn Symes

$1,028 Vol.

<1%

icon for Sam Groth

Sam Groth

$1,066 Vol.

<1%

The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria. This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Premier of Victoria as a result of the specified elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn-in as Premier following the specified elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Premier is appointed by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Victoria; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Jess Wilson leads the Victorian Liberal Party as opposition leader since a November 2025 spill and holds a 64% implied probability in the market ahead of the November 28, 2026 state election. Recent DemosAU and Resolve polling shows the Coalition ahead on a 55-45 two-party preferred basis, with Wilson ahead of Labor Premier Ben Carroll on preferred premier measures. Carroll assumed the premiership in late July 2026 after Jacinta Allan resigned amid caucus pressure, but Labor’s primary vote has remained in the mid-20s while One Nation support near 22-24% fragments the vote without shifting the projected outcome. Wilson’s policy releases on bail reform, policing, housing supply, and a first-100-days agenda have sustained momentum, aligning trader consensus with consistent Coalition polling leads and structural challenges for the incumbent government. Lower probabilities for Carroll, Warren Pickering, and other Labor figures reflect these trends.

The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.

This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Premier of Victoria as a result of the specified elections.

To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn-in as Premier following the specified elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Premier is appointed by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Victoria; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$10,677
Date de fin
28 nov. 2026
Marché ouvert
Aug 27, 2026, 8:24 AM ET

Source de résolution

https://www.vic.gov.au/premier

Résolveur

0x69c47De9D...
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria. This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Premier of Victoria as a result of the specified elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn-in as Premier following the specified elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Premier is appointed by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Victoria; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria. This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Premier of Victoria as a result of the specified elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn-in as Premier following the specified elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Premier is appointed by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Victoria; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Jess Wilson leads the Victorian Liberal Party as opposition leader since a November 2025 spill and holds a 64% implied probability in the market ahead of the November 28, 2026 state election. Recent DemosAU and Resolve polling shows the Coalition ahead on a 55-45 two-party preferred basis, with Wilson ahead of Labor Premier Ben Carroll on preferred premier measures. Carroll assumed the premiership in late July 2026 after Jacinta Allan resigned amid caucus pressure, but Labor’s primary vote has remained in the mid-20s while One Nation support near 22-24% fragments the vote without shifting the projected outcome. Wilson’s policy releases on bail reform, policing, housing supply, and a first-100-days agenda have sustained momentum, aligning trader consensus with consistent Coalition polling leads and structural challenges for the incumbent government. Lower probabilities for Carroll, Warren Pickering, and other Labor figures reflect these trends.

The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.

This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Premier of Victoria as a result of the specified elections.

To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn-in as Premier following the specified elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Premier is appointed by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Victoria; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$10,677
Date de fin
28 nov. 2026
Marché ouvert
Aug 27, 2026, 8:24 AM ET

Source de résolution

https://www.vic.gov.au/premier

Résolveur

0x69c47De9D...
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria. This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Premier of Victoria as a result of the specified elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn-in as Premier following the specified elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Premier is appointed by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Victoria; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Connexes

icon for Will Liberal–National win the most seats in the next Victorian state election?

Will Liberal–National win the most seats in the next Victorian state election?

78%
icon for Marianne Alto remportera-t-elle l'élection municipale de Victoria en 2026 ?

Marianne Alto remportera-t-elle l'élection municipale de Victoria en 2026 ?

91%
Oui
icon for Will Labor win the second-most seats in the next Victorian state election?

Will Labor win the second-most seats in the next Victorian state election?

81%

Méfiez-vous des liens externes.

Questions fréquentes

« Prochain Premier ministre de Victoria » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 15 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « Jess Wilson » à 64%, suivi de « Ben Carroll » à 21%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 64¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 64% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « Prochain Premier ministre de Victoria » a généré $10.7K en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Aug 27, 2026. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « Prochain Premier ministre de Victoria », parcourez les 15 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Prochain Premier ministre de Victoria » est « Jess Wilson » à 64%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 64% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « Ben Carroll » à 21%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Prochain Premier ministre de Victoria » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.