A recent Washington Post-Schar School poll conducted March 26-31 shows 52% of likely Virginia voters supporting the constitutional amendment allowing mid-decade congressional redistricting, versus 47% opposed—a slim five-point edge that aligns with trader consensus pricing tight margins like Pass 15%+ at 45.5% and others clustered near 40%, reflecting uncertainty in this low-turnout special election on April 21. Stronger early voting turnout in Republican-leaning areas since March 6 signals GOP motivation against the Democratic-backed measure, aimed at countering GOP gerrymanders elsewhere, while partisan divides and uneven fundraising intensify the contest. Final Election Day mobilization or late polls could tip the balance toward wider separation in victory margins.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourVirginia Redistricting Referendum: Margin of Victory
Virginia Redistricting Referendum: Margin of Victory
Pass 15%+ 45%
Pass 6-9% 44%
Pass 3-6% 41%
Pass <3% 40%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
21 avr. 2026
Pass 15%+
45%
Pass 12-15%
34%
Pass 9-12%
33%
Pass 6-9%
44%
Pass 3-6%
41%
Pass <3%
40%
No Pass
33%
Pass 15%+ 45%
Pass 6-9% 44%
Pass 3-6% 41%
Pass <3% 40%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
21 avr. 2026
Pass 15%+
$10 Vol.
45%
Pass 12-15%
$0 Vol.
34%
Pass 9-12%
$0 Vol.
33%
Pass 6-9%
$5 Vol.
44%
Pass 3-6%
$0 Vol.
41%
Pass <3%
$0 Vol.
40%
No Pass
$0 Vol.
33%
Pending legal challenges, Virginia is scheduled to vote in a special election on April 21, 2026, over a referendum to amend the state constitution, allowing the Virginia General Assembly to redraw its congressional districts (see: https://www.elections.virginia.gov/election-law/proposed-amendment-for-april-2026-special-election/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes cast in this referendum.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the “Yes” option and the “No” option in this referendum. Percentages of valid votes for each option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid “Yes” or “No” votes by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the number of valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes is exactly equal, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason, the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is definitively canceled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No Pass”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote, according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).A recent Washington Post-Schar School poll conducted March 26-31 shows 52% of likely Virginia voters supporting the constitutional amendment allowing mid-decade congressional redistricting, versus 47% opposed—a slim five-point edge that aligns with trader consensus pricing tight margins like Pass 15%+ at 45.5% and others clustered near 40%, reflecting uncertainty in this low-turnout special election on April 21. Stronger early voting turnout in Republican-leaning areas since March 6 signals GOP motivation against the Democratic-backed measure, aimed at countering GOP gerrymanders elsewhere, while partisan divides and uneven fundraising intensify the contest. Final Election Day mobilization or late polls could tip the balance toward wider separation in victory margins.
Pending legal challenges, Virginia is scheduled to vote in a special election on April 21, 2026, over a referendum to amend the state constitution, allowing the Virginia General Assembly to redraw its congressional districts (see: https://www.elections.virginia.gov/election-law/proposed-amendment-for-april-2026-special-election/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes cast in this referendum.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the “Yes” option and the “No” option in this referendum. Percentages of valid votes for each option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid “Yes” or “No” votes by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the number of valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes is exactly equal, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason, the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is definitively canceled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No Pass”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote, according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes cast in this referendum.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the “Yes” option and the “No” option in this referendum. Percentages of valid votes for each option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid “Yes” or “No” votes by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the number of valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes is exactly equal, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason, the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is definitively canceled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No Pass”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote, according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Apr 7, 2026, 6:29 PM ET
Volume
$15Date de fin
21 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 7, 2026, 6:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Pending legal challenges, Virginia is scheduled to vote in a special election on April 21, 2026, over a referendum to amend the state constitution, allowing the Virginia General Assembly to redraw its congressional districts (see: https://www.elections.virginia.gov/election-law/proposed-amendment-for-april-2026-special-election/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes cast in this referendum.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the “Yes” option and the “No” option in this referendum. Percentages of valid votes for each option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid “Yes” or “No” votes by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the number of valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes is exactly equal, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason, the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is definitively canceled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No Pass”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote, according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).A recent Washington Post-Schar School poll conducted March 26-31 shows 52% of likely Virginia voters supporting the constitutional amendment allowing mid-decade congressional redistricting, versus 47% opposed—a slim five-point edge that aligns with trader consensus pricing tight margins like Pass 15%+ at 45.5% and others clustered near 40%, reflecting uncertainty in this low-turnout special election on April 21. Stronger early voting turnout in Republican-leaning areas since March 6 signals GOP motivation against the Democratic-backed measure, aimed at countering GOP gerrymanders elsewhere, while partisan divides and uneven fundraising intensify the contest. Final Election Day mobilization or late polls could tip the balance toward wider separation in victory margins.
Pending legal challenges, Virginia is scheduled to vote in a special election on April 21, 2026, over a referendum to amend the state constitution, allowing the Virginia General Assembly to redraw its congressional districts (see: https://www.elections.virginia.gov/election-law/proposed-amendment-for-april-2026-special-election/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes cast in this referendum.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the “Yes” option and the “No” option in this referendum. Percentages of valid votes for each option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid “Yes” or “No” votes by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the number of valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes is exactly equal, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason, the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is definitively canceled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No Pass”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote, according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes cast in this referendum.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the “Yes” option and the “No” option in this referendum. Percentages of valid votes for each option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid “Yes” or “No” votes by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the number of valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes is exactly equal, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason, the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is definitively canceled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No Pass”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote, according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).
Volume
$15Date de fin
21 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 7, 2026, 6:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A recent Washington Post-Schar School poll conducted March 26-31 shows 52% of likely Virginia voters supporting the constitutional amendment allowing mid-decade congressional redistricting, versus 47% opposed—a slim five-point edge that aligns with trader consensus pricing tight margins like Pass 15%+ at 45.5% and others clustered near 40%, reflecting uncertainty in this low-turnout special election on April 21. Stronger early voting turnout in Republican-leaning areas since March 6 signals GOP motivation against the Democratic-backed measure, aimed at countering GOP gerrymanders elsewhere, while partisan divides and uneven fundraising intensify the contest. Final Election Day mobilization or late polls could tip the balance toward wider separation in victory margins.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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