**Traders assign a 91.5% probability to “No” for Turkey moving on a new constitution in 2026 because preparatory statements and commissions have not produced the parliamentary votes or formal process needed for substantive action this year.** Ruling AKP and MHP allies control roughly 321 of 600 seats, well short of the 360 required for a referendum or 400 for direct passage under Article 175. Opposition parties have withheld support, citing concerns that changes could address presidential term limits ahead of 2028. Recent developments include a June 2026 statement by Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş expecting progress in 2026-2027, ongoing AKP constitutional commission work, and Justice Minister comments reaffirming the need for a civilian charter amid security and rights issues. However, the year has instead seen passage of the 12th Judicial Package in July, implementation steps in the Kurdish peace process, and a September Medium-Term Economic Plan—none of which advanced a full constitutional draft or vote. Without cross-party consensus or an unexpected parliamentary shift before December, the consensus view is that meaningful movement remains unlikely in the remaining months of 2026.