Multiple candidates, including Olivier Faure and Raphaël Glucksmann as leading contenders alongside Philippe Brun, Jérôme Guedj, and others, have fragmented the closed primary electorate ahead of the October 9-10 first round. Recent internal PS consultations, candidate declarations through mid-September, and reporting on competing factions within the social-democratic pole have reinforced expectations of a split vote. Historical patterns in French party primaries and the absence of a dominant frontrunner with consolidated support further support trader consensus that a runoff on October 16-17 remains the more probable outcome.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
27% chance
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
10 oct. 2026
Oui
27% chance
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
10 oct. 2026
The Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) is holding a primary to select their nominee for the 2027 French presidential elections. The first round is scheduled to be held on October 9-10, 2026, and the second round on October 16-17, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a candidate wins the French Socialist primary outright in the first round, such that no second round is held. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A candidate wins outright if they receive more than 50% of the votes cast in the first round, or if the organizers of the primary otherwise declare them the winner of the primary without a second round being held.
If the primary is cancelled, the first round does not take place, or the results thereof are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.Multiple candidates, including Olivier Faure and Raphaël Glucksmann as leading contenders alongside Philippe Brun, Jérôme Guedj, and others, have fragmented the closed primary electorate ahead of the October 9-10 first round. Recent internal PS consultations, candidate declarations through mid-September, and reporting on competing factions within the social-democratic pole have reinforced expectations of a split vote. Historical patterns in French party primaries and the absence of a dominant frontrunner with consolidated support further support trader consensus that a runoff on October 16-17 remains the more probable outcome.
The Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) is holding a primary to select their nominee for the 2027 French presidential elections. The first round is scheduled to be held on October 9-10, 2026, and the second round on October 16-17, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a candidate wins the French Socialist primary outright in the first round, such that no second round is held. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A candidate wins outright if they receive more than 50% of the votes cast in the first round, or if the organizers of the primary otherwise declare them the winner of the primary without a second round being held.
If the primary is cancelled, the first round does not take place, or the results thereof are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a candidate wins the French Socialist primary outright in the first round, such that no second round is held. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A candidate wins outright if they receive more than 50% of the votes cast in the first round, or if the organizers of the primary otherwise declare them the winner of the primary without a second round being held.
If the primary is cancelled, the first round does not take place, or the results thereof are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.
Marché ouvert : Sep 9, 2026, 6:30 PM ET
Volume
$40Date de fin
10 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 9, 2026, 6:30 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...The Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) is holding a primary to select their nominee for the 2027 French presidential elections. The first round is scheduled to be held on October 9-10, 2026, and the second round on October 16-17, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a candidate wins the French Socialist primary outright in the first round, such that no second round is held. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A candidate wins outright if they receive more than 50% of the votes cast in the first round, or if the organizers of the primary otherwise declare them the winner of the primary without a second round being held.
If the primary is cancelled, the first round does not take place, or the results thereof are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.Multiple candidates, including Olivier Faure and Raphaël Glucksmann as leading contenders alongside Philippe Brun, Jérôme Guedj, and others, have fragmented the closed primary electorate ahead of the October 9-10 first round. Recent internal PS consultations, candidate declarations through mid-September, and reporting on competing factions within the social-democratic pole have reinforced expectations of a split vote. Historical patterns in French party primaries and the absence of a dominant frontrunner with consolidated support further support trader consensus that a runoff on October 16-17 remains the more probable outcome.
The Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) is holding a primary to select their nominee for the 2027 French presidential elections. The first round is scheduled to be held on October 9-10, 2026, and the second round on October 16-17, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a candidate wins the French Socialist primary outright in the first round, such that no second round is held. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A candidate wins outright if they receive more than 50% of the votes cast in the first round, or if the organizers of the primary otherwise declare them the winner of the primary without a second round being held.
If the primary is cancelled, the first round does not take place, or the results thereof are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a candidate wins the French Socialist primary outright in the first round, such that no second round is held. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A candidate wins outright if they receive more than 50% of the votes cast in the first round, or if the organizers of the primary otherwise declare them the winner of the primary without a second round being held.
If the primary is cancelled, the first round does not take place, or the results thereof are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.
Volume
$40Date de fin
10 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 9, 2026, 6:30 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...Multiple candidates, including Olivier Faure and Raphaël Glucksmann as leading contenders alongside Philippe Brun, Jérôme Guedj, and others, have fragmented the closed primary electorate ahead of the October 9-10 first round. Recent internal PS consultations, candidate declarations through mid-September, and reporting on competing factions within the social-democratic pole have reinforced expectations of a split vote. Historical patterns in French party primaries and the absence of a dominant frontrunner with consolidated support further support trader consensus that a runoff on October 16-17 remains the more probable outcome.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourConnexes
Raphaël Glucksmann remportera-t-il le premier tour de la primaire socialiste française ?
70%
Oui
Olivier Faure terminera-t-il deuxième au premier tour de la primaire socialiste française ?
35%
Oui
Raphaël Glucksmann remportera-t-il l'investiture du Parti socialiste pour se présenter à l'élection présidentielle française de 2027 ?
67%
Oui
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