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icon for Vainqueur de l'élection partielle de Tongatapu 2
Monde·Tonga

Vainqueur de l'élection partielle de Tongatapu 2

icon for Vainqueur de l'élection partielle de Tongatapu 2
Monde·Tonga

Vainqueur de l'élection partielle de Tongatapu 2

Lei Paasi 34%

Samiuela Vea 30%

Mele Teusivi 'Amanaki 30%

Alvin Lafu Sika 27%

Polymarket
NOUVEAU

Lei Paasi 34%

Samiuela Vea 30%

Mele Teusivi 'Amanaki 30%

Alvin Lafu Sika 27%

Polymarket
NOUVEAU

Lei Paasi

$29 Vol.

34%

Samiuela Vea

$29 Vol.

30%

Mele Teusivi 'Amanaki

$29 Vol.

30%

Alvin Lafu Sika

$29 Vol.

27%

Sione Harvard Tupouniua

$29 Vol.

27%

'Olioni Manoa

$29 Vol.

24%

'Ilaisa Lepolo Taunisila

$29 Vol.

24%

Malakai Matafonuafo'ou 'Ofa ki Wakawaka Koloamatangi

$29 Vol.

21%

Mounu Uaisele

$349 Vol.

10%

A by-election in the Tongan constituency of Tongatapu 2 is scheduled to take place on October 8, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Tongatapu 2 by-election to the Legislative Assembly of Tonga. If the result of this election isn’t known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Tonga Electoral Commission (https://elections.gov.to/; https://www.facebook.com/KomisoniFili).The Tongatapu 2 by-election, triggered by the court-ordered unseating of the 2025 winner on bribery charges, features nine candidates in a first-past-the-post contest scheduled for 8 October. Fragmented support among independents, including Mounu Uaisele, Malakai Koloamatangi, ‘Olioni Manoa, Samiuela Vea, Mele ‘Amanaki, Alvin Lafu Sika, and others, has produced closely matched implied probabilities, as no single contender has consolidated a clear plurality. Withdrawals by some aspirants to back others have narrowed the field modestly but not enough to establish a decisive leader ahead of final voter registration. Historical patterns of local alliances and village-level mobilization in this constituency continue to shape the contest, leaving outcome probabilities sensitive to late shifts in endorsements or turnout.

A by-election in the Tongan constituency of Tongatapu 2 is scheduled to take place on October 8, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Tongatapu 2 by-election to the Legislative Assembly of Tonga.

If the result of this election isn’t known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Tonga Electoral Commission (https://elections.gov.to/; https://www.facebook.com/KomisoniFili).A by-election in the Tongan constituency of Tongatapu 2 is scheduled to take place on October 8, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Tongatapu 2 by-election to the Legislative Assembly of Tonga. If the result of this election isn’t known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Tonga Electoral Commission (https://elections.gov.to/; https://www.facebook.com/KomisoniFili).
Volume
$582
Date de fin
8 oct. 2026
Marché ouvert
Sep 9, 2026, 5:47 PM ET

Résolveur

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election in the Tongan constituency of Tongatapu 2 is scheduled to take place on October 8, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Tongatapu 2 by-election to the Legislative Assembly of Tonga. If the result of this election isn’t known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Tonga Electoral Commission (https://elections.gov.to/; https://www.facebook.com/KomisoniFili).The Tongatapu 2 by-election, triggered by the court-ordered unseating of the 2025 winner on bribery charges, features nine candidates in a first-past-the-post contest scheduled for 8 October. Fragmented support among independents, including Mounu Uaisele, Malakai Koloamatangi, ‘Olioni Manoa, Samiuela Vea, Mele ‘Amanaki, Alvin Lafu Sika, and others, has produced closely matched implied probabilities, as no single contender has consolidated a clear plurality. Withdrawals by some aspirants to back others have narrowed the field modestly but not enough to establish a decisive leader ahead of final voter registration. Historical patterns of local alliances and village-level mobilization in this constituency continue to shape the contest, leaving outcome probabilities sensitive to late shifts in endorsements or turnout.

A by-election in the Tongan constituency of Tongatapu 2 is scheduled to take place on October 8, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Tongatapu 2 by-election to the Legislative Assembly of Tonga.

If the result of this election isn’t known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Tonga Electoral Commission (https://elections.gov.to/; https://www.facebook.com/KomisoniFili).A by-election in the Tongan constituency of Tongatapu 2 is scheduled to take place on October 8, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Tongatapu 2 by-election to the Legislative Assembly of Tonga. If the result of this election isn’t known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Tonga Electoral Commission (https://elections.gov.to/; https://www.facebook.com/KomisoniFili).
Volume
$582
Date de fin
8 oct. 2026
Marché ouvert
Sep 9, 2026, 5:47 PM ET

Résolveur

0x69c47De9D...

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Méfiez-vous des liens externes.

Questions fréquentes

« Vainqueur de l'élection partielle de Tongatapu 2 » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 9 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « Lei Paasi » à 34%, suivi de « Samiuela Vea » à 30%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 34¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 34% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

« Vainqueur de l'élection partielle de Tongatapu 2 » est un marché nouvellement créé sur Polymarket, lancé le Sep 9, 2026. En tant que marché récent, c'est votre opportunité d'être parmi les premiers traders à définir les cotes et établir les premiers signaux de prix du marché. Vous pouvez également ajouter cette page à vos favoris pour suivre le volume et l'activité de trading au fil du temps.

Pour trader sur « Vainqueur de l'élection partielle de Tongatapu 2 », parcourez les 9 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Vainqueur de l'élection partielle de Tongatapu 2 » est « Lei Paasi » à 34%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 34% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « Samiuela Vea » à 30%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Vainqueur de l'élection partielle de Tongatapu 2 » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.