Recent opinion polls for New Zealand’s November 2026 general election show the incumbent National Party and Labour in a tight contest for first place, with National maintaining a modest aggregate lead in most surveys while both hover near 30%. This positioning makes Labour the leading contender for second, though trader consensus assigns National a higher implied probability of finishing second amid expectations of continued government support. Smaller parties such as New Zealand First, the Greens, Te Pāti Māori and ACT remain well behind, reflecting vote fragmentation and the recent surge of the Opportunity Party, which has drawn support away from established blocs in August surveys. National’s candidate list release and policy announcements on referenda and fiscal rules have provided incremental stability, while Labour’s small-business package has not yet shifted the overall balance.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourNew Zealand Election: 2nd Place
New Zealand Election: 2nd Place
National Party 53%
Labour Party 42%
New Zealand First Party <1%
Te Pāti Māori <1%
$17,846 Vol.
$17,846 Vol.
7 nov. 2026
National Party
53%
Labour Party
42%
New Zealand First Party
1%
Te Pāti Māori
1%
Green Party
<1%
ACT New Zealand
<1%
National Party 53%
Labour Party 42%
New Zealand First Party <1%
Te Pāti Māori <1%
$17,846 Vol.
$17,846 Vol.
7 nov. 2026
National Party
$8,811 Vol.
53%
Labour Party
$4,789 Vol.
42%
New Zealand First Party
$1,262 Vol.
1%
Te Pāti Māori
$1,199 Vol.
1%
Green Party
$542 Vol.
<1%
ACT New Zealand
$1,243 Vol.
<1%
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid party list votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).Recent opinion polls for New Zealand’s November 2026 general election show the incumbent National Party and Labour in a tight contest for first place, with National maintaining a modest aggregate lead in most surveys while both hover near 30%. This positioning makes Labour the leading contender for second, though trader consensus assigns National a higher implied probability of finishing second amid expectations of continued government support. Smaller parties such as New Zealand First, the Greens, Te Pāti Māori and ACT remain well behind, reflecting vote fragmentation and the recent surge of the Opportunity Party, which has drawn support away from established blocs in August surveys. National’s candidate list release and policy announcements on referenda and fiscal rules have provided incremental stability, while Labour’s small-business package has not yet shifted the overall balance.
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid party list votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid party list votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
Marché ouvert : Apr 29, 2026, 7:49 PM ET
Volume
$17,846Date de fin
7 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 29, 2026, 7:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid party list votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).Recent opinion polls for New Zealand’s November 2026 general election show the incumbent National Party and Labour in a tight contest for first place, with National maintaining a modest aggregate lead in most surveys while both hover near 30%. This positioning makes Labour the leading contender for second, though trader consensus assigns National a higher implied probability of finishing second amid expectations of continued government support. Smaller parties such as New Zealand First, the Greens, Te Pāti Māori and ACT remain well behind, reflecting vote fragmentation and the recent surge of the Opportunity Party, which has drawn support away from established blocs in August surveys. National’s candidate list release and policy announcements on referenda and fiscal rules have provided incremental stability, while Labour’s small-business package has not yet shifted the overall balance.
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid party list votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid party list votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
Volume
$17,846Date de fin
7 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 29, 2026, 7:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent opinion polls for New Zealand’s November 2026 general election show the incumbent National Party and Labour in a tight contest for first place, with National maintaining a modest aggregate lead in most surveys while both hover near 30%. This positioning makes Labour the leading contender for second, though trader consensus assigns National a higher implied probability of finishing second amid expectations of continued government support. Smaller parties such as New Zealand First, the Greens, Te Pāti Māori and ACT remain well behind, reflecting vote fragmentation and the recent surge of the Opportunity Party, which has drawn support away from established blocs in August surveys. National’s candidate list release and policy announcements on referenda and fiscal rules have provided incremental stability, while Labour’s small-business package has not yet shifted the overall balance.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourConnexes
Will New Zealand First Party win the third-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
53%
Will Labour Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
55%
NZ election: Labour v National (% of Party List Vote)
59%
Labour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes