**Steve Scalise's incumbency in the heavily Republican LA-01 district drives the strong trader consensus favoring an outright primary winner on November 3.** The district's R+20 partisan voting index and Scalise's 66.8% share in 2024 reflect consistent voter support that has not shown signs of erosion ahead of the jungle primary. With qualifying concluded in early August, the field remains limited to Scalise, Democrat Lauren Jewett, Republican Randall Arrington, and independent Liddy Glass. Louisiana's majority-vote rule means any candidate exceeding 50% avoids a December 12 runoff. Absent major polling shifts or late developments that fragment the Republican vote, historical margins and the absence of competitive challengers keep the implied probability elevated.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
95% chance
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
3 nov. 2026
Oui
95% chance
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
3 nov. 2026
The first round of the 2026 midterm LA-01 House election will be held on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” in the first round by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm LA-01 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the LA-01 House election.**Steve Scalise's incumbency in the heavily Republican LA-01 district drives the strong trader consensus favoring an outright primary winner on November 3.** The district's R+20 partisan voting index and Scalise's 66.8% share in 2024 reflect consistent voter support that has not shown signs of erosion ahead of the jungle primary. With qualifying concluded in early August, the field remains limited to Scalise, Democrat Lauren Jewett, Republican Randall Arrington, and independent Liddy Glass. Louisiana's majority-vote rule means any candidate exceeding 50% avoids a December 12 runoff. Absent major polling shifts or late developments that fragment the Republican vote, historical margins and the absence of competitive challengers keep the implied probability elevated.
The first round of the 2026 midterm LA-01 House election will be held on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” in the first round by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm LA-01 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the LA-01 House election.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm LA-01 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the LA-01 House election.
Marché ouvert : Aug 14, 2026, 5:26 PM ET
Volume
$1,601Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 14, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The first round of the 2026 midterm LA-01 House election will be held on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” in the first round by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm LA-01 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the LA-01 House election.**Steve Scalise's incumbency in the heavily Republican LA-01 district drives the strong trader consensus favoring an outright primary winner on November 3.** The district's R+20 partisan voting index and Scalise's 66.8% share in 2024 reflect consistent voter support that has not shown signs of erosion ahead of the jungle primary. With qualifying concluded in early August, the field remains limited to Scalise, Democrat Lauren Jewett, Republican Randall Arrington, and independent Liddy Glass. Louisiana's majority-vote rule means any candidate exceeding 50% avoids a December 12 runoff. Absent major polling shifts or late developments that fragment the Republican vote, historical margins and the absence of competitive challengers keep the implied probability elevated.
The first round of the 2026 midterm LA-01 House election will be held on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” in the first round by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm LA-01 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the LA-01 House election.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm LA-01 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the LA-01 House election.
Volume
$1,601Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 14, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Steve Scalise's incumbency in the heavily Republican LA-01 district drives the strong trader consensus favoring an outright primary winner on November 3.** The district's R+20 partisan voting index and Scalise's 66.8% share in 2024 reflect consistent voter support that has not shown signs of erosion ahead of the jungle primary. With qualifying concluded in early August, the field remains limited to Scalise, Democrat Lauren Jewett, Republican Randall Arrington, and independent Liddy Glass. Louisiana's majority-vote rule means any candidate exceeding 50% avoids a December 12 runoff. Absent major polling shifts or late developments that fragment the Republican vote, historical margins and the absence of competitive challengers keep the implied probability elevated.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes