**Incumbent Cory Mills faces a competitive Republican primary in Florida’s 7th congressional district on August 18, 2026, against Ryan Elijah and lesser-known challengers Michael Johnson and Sarah Ulrich.** Recent Victory Insights polling from early August shows Mills at 28% and Elijah at 22% among likely GOP primary voters, with substantial undecideds and low overall support for the two-term incumbent. A separate St. Pete Polls survey had Mills ahead by a wider 16 points, though still far from a majority. The August 5 debate highlighted attacks on Mills regarding ethics concerns and a reported Justice Department investigation, which Elijah has emphasized, while Mills has Trump’s endorsement and denied wrongdoing. These dynamics, combined with vote-splitting among four candidates, support trader consensus around narrow victory margins—particularly Elijah winning by less than 5 points or an “other” outcome—over larger Mills leads. The short timeline to the primary leaves limited room for major shifts absent new developments.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourMills 20–25 % 39%
Mills 15–20 % 39%
Mills 10–15 % 39%
Mills 5–10 % 39%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
18 août 2026
Mills 25 %+
31%
Mills 20–25 %
39%
Mills 15–20 %
39%
Mills 10–15 %
39%
Mills 5–10 %
39%
Mills <5%
39%
Elijah <5%
38%
Elijah 5–10 %
39%
Elijah 10–15 %
39%
Elijah 15–20 %
39%
Elijah 20–25 %
39%
Elijah 25 %+
35%
Mills 20–25 % 39%
Mills 15–20 % 39%
Mills 10–15 % 39%
Mills 5–10 % 39%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
18 août 2026
Mills 25 %+
$49 Vol.
31%
Mills 20–25 %
$0 Vol.
39%
Mills 15–20 %
$0 Vol.
39%
Mills 10–15 %
$0 Vol.
39%
Mills 5–10 %
$0 Vol.
39%
Mills <5%
$0 Vol.
39%
Elijah <5%
$0 Vol.
38%
Elijah 5–10 %
$0 Vol.
39%
Elijah 10–15 %
$0 Vol.
39%
Elijah 15–20 %
$0 Vol.
39%
Elijah 20–25 %
$0 Vol.
39%
Elijah 25 %+
$57 Vol.
35%
Primary elections in Florida are scheduled to be held on August 18, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Republican Primary for Florida's 7th Congressional District (FL-07).
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.**Incumbent Cory Mills faces a competitive Republican primary in Florida’s 7th congressional district on August 18, 2026, against Ryan Elijah and lesser-known challengers Michael Johnson and Sarah Ulrich.** Recent Victory Insights polling from early August shows Mills at 28% and Elijah at 22% among likely GOP primary voters, with substantial undecideds and low overall support for the two-term incumbent. A separate St. Pete Polls survey had Mills ahead by a wider 16 points, though still far from a majority.
The August 5 debate highlighted attacks on Mills regarding ethics concerns and a reported Justice Department investigation, which Elijah has emphasized, while Mills has Trump’s endorsement and denied wrongdoing. These dynamics, combined with vote-splitting among four candidates, support trader consensus around narrow victory margins—particularly Elijah winning by less than 5 points or an “other” outcome—over larger Mills leads. The short timeline to the primary leaves limited room for major shifts absent new developments.
Primary elections in Florida are scheduled to be held on August 18, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Republican Primary for Florida's 7th Congressional District (FL-07).
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Republican Primary for Florida's 7th Congressional District (FL-07).
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Marché ouvert : Aug 14, 2026, 5:48 PM ET
Volume
$106Date de fin
18 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 14, 2026, 5:48 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Primary elections in Florida are scheduled to be held on August 18, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Republican Primary for Florida's 7th Congressional District (FL-07).
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.**Incumbent Cory Mills faces a competitive Republican primary in Florida’s 7th congressional district on August 18, 2026, against Ryan Elijah and lesser-known challengers Michael Johnson and Sarah Ulrich.** Recent Victory Insights polling from early August shows Mills at 28% and Elijah at 22% among likely GOP primary voters, with substantial undecideds and low overall support for the two-term incumbent. A separate St. Pete Polls survey had Mills ahead by a wider 16 points, though still far from a majority.
The August 5 debate highlighted attacks on Mills regarding ethics concerns and a reported Justice Department investigation, which Elijah has emphasized, while Mills has Trump’s endorsement and denied wrongdoing. These dynamics, combined with vote-splitting among four candidates, support trader consensus around narrow victory margins—particularly Elijah winning by less than 5 points or an “other” outcome—over larger Mills leads. The short timeline to the primary leaves limited room for major shifts absent new developments.
Primary elections in Florida are scheduled to be held on August 18, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Republican Primary for Florida's 7th Congressional District (FL-07).
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Republican Primary for Florida's 7th Congressional District (FL-07).
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volume
$106Date de fin
18 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 14, 2026, 5:48 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Incumbent Cory Mills faces a competitive Republican primary in Florida’s 7th congressional district on August 18, 2026, against Ryan Elijah and lesser-known challengers Michael Johnson and Sarah Ulrich.** Recent Victory Insights polling from early August shows Mills at 28% and Elijah at 22% among likely GOP primary voters, with substantial undecideds and low overall support for the two-term incumbent. A separate St. Pete Polls survey had Mills ahead by a wider 16 points, though still far from a majority. The August 5 debate highlighted attacks on Mills regarding ethics concerns and a reported Justice Department investigation, which Elijah has emphasized, while Mills has Trump’s endorsement and denied wrongdoing. These dynamics, combined with vote-splitting among four candidates, support trader consensus around narrow victory margins—particularly Elijah winning by less than 5 points or an “other” outcome—over larger Mills leads. The short timeline to the primary leaves limited room for major shifts absent new developments.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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