The tight contest in Florida’s 25th Congressional District Democratic primary between incumbent Jared Moskowitz and progressive challenger Oliver Larkin has kept margin-of-victory probabilities clustered around moderate leads, with traders assigning the highest weight to a 20–25 point Moskowitz win. Recent polling shows the race narrowing sharply from earlier double-digit gaps to a statistical tie, driven by high undecided shares, Larkin’s strength among voters yet to cast ballots, and Moskowitz’s edge among those who voted early. Ideological differences, outside spending, and the district’s new boundaries after redistricting continue to shape voter coalitions ahead of the August 18 primary. Late shifts in turnout among remaining voters or additional endorsements could widen or compress the final margin before polls close.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourMoskowitz 15–20 % 38%
Moskowitz 10–15 % 38%
Moskowitz 5–10 % 38%
Larkin <5 % 38%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
18 août 2026
Moskowitz 25 %+
54%
Moskowitz 20–25 %
42%
Moskowitz 15–20 %
38%
Moskowitz 10–15 %
38%
Moskowitz 5–10 %
38%
Moskowitz <5%
37%
Larkin <5 %
38%
Larkin 5–10 %
34%
Larkin 10–15 %
38%
Larkin 15–20 %
11%
Larkin 20–25 %
21%
Larkin 25 %+
-
Moskowitz 15–20 % 38%
Moskowitz 10–15 % 38%
Moskowitz 5–10 % 38%
Larkin <5 % 38%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
18 août 2026
Moskowitz 25 %+
$51 Vol.
54%
Moskowitz 20–25 %
$58 Vol.
42%
Moskowitz 15–20 %
$31 Vol.
38%
Moskowitz 10–15 %
$31 Vol.
38%
Moskowitz 5–10 %
$15 Vol.
38%
Moskowitz <5%
$31 Vol.
37%
Larkin <5 %
$31 Vol.
38%
Larkin 5–10 %
$31 Vol.
34%
Larkin 10–15 %
$31 Vol.
38%
Larkin 15–20 %
$53 Vol.
11%
Larkin 20–25 %
$31 Vol.
21%
Larkin 25 %+
$119 Vol.
-
Primary elections in Florida are scheduled to be held on August 18, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Democratic Primary for Florida's 25th Congressional District (FL-25).
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.The tight contest in Florida’s 25th Congressional District Democratic primary between incumbent Jared Moskowitz and progressive challenger Oliver Larkin has kept margin-of-victory probabilities clustered around moderate leads, with traders assigning the highest weight to a 20–25 point Moskowitz win. Recent polling shows the race narrowing sharply from earlier double-digit gaps to a statistical tie, driven by high undecided shares, Larkin’s strength among voters yet to cast ballots, and Moskowitz’s edge among those who voted early. Ideological differences, outside spending, and the district’s new boundaries after redistricting continue to shape voter coalitions ahead of the August 18 primary. Late shifts in turnout among remaining voters or additional endorsements could widen or compress the final margin before polls close.
Primary elections in Florida are scheduled to be held on August 18, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Democratic Primary for Florida's 25th Congressional District (FL-25).
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Democratic Primary for Florida's 25th Congressional District (FL-25).
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Marché ouvert : Aug 14, 2026, 5:57 PM ET
Volume
$516Date de fin
18 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 14, 2026, 5:57 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Primary elections in Florida are scheduled to be held on August 18, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Democratic Primary for Florida's 25th Congressional District (FL-25).
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.The tight contest in Florida’s 25th Congressional District Democratic primary between incumbent Jared Moskowitz and progressive challenger Oliver Larkin has kept margin-of-victory probabilities clustered around moderate leads, with traders assigning the highest weight to a 20–25 point Moskowitz win. Recent polling shows the race narrowing sharply from earlier double-digit gaps to a statistical tie, driven by high undecided shares, Larkin’s strength among voters yet to cast ballots, and Moskowitz’s edge among those who voted early. Ideological differences, outside spending, and the district’s new boundaries after redistricting continue to shape voter coalitions ahead of the August 18 primary. Late shifts in turnout among remaining voters or additional endorsements could widen or compress the final margin before polls close.
Primary elections in Florida are scheduled to be held on August 18, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Democratic Primary for Florida's 25th Congressional District (FL-25).
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Democratic Primary for Florida's 25th Congressional District (FL-25).
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volume
$516Date de fin
18 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 14, 2026, 5:57 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The tight contest in Florida’s 25th Congressional District Democratic primary between incumbent Jared Moskowitz and progressive challenger Oliver Larkin has kept margin-of-victory probabilities clustered around moderate leads, with traders assigning the highest weight to a 20–25 point Moskowitz win. Recent polling shows the race narrowing sharply from earlier double-digit gaps to a statistical tie, driven by high undecided shares, Larkin’s strength among voters yet to cast ballots, and Moskowitz’s edge among those who voted early. Ideological differences, outside spending, and the district’s new boundaries after redistricting continue to shape voter coalitions ahead of the August 18 primary. Late shifts in turnout among remaining voters or additional endorsements could widen or compress the final margin before polls close.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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