Trader consensus on Polymarket's binary markets for specific terms like "Ceasefire," "Hezbollah," "OpenAI/ChatGPT," and "Strait of Hormuz" has collapsed to near-zero implied probabilities as the April 27-May 3 window closes, with no matches in New York Times front-page headlines per print editions at nytimes.pressreader.com. Front pages instead led with the April 27 armed attack at the White House Correspondents' Dinner—"Confusion and Fright Inside the Washington Hilton Ballroom" and "Grievance Propelled Gala Attack Suspect"—amid political violence fatigue, Trump administration moves like the Comey indictment and FCC ABC probe, Supreme Court clashes on voting rights and TPS, Iran war impatience sans key phrases, and Spirit Airlines' shutdown. Resolution imminent May 3 tests strict headline criteria.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourQue diront les gros titres du New York Times cette semaine ? (27 avr - 3 mai)
$43,739 Vol.
Iran
Oui
Donald / Trump
Oui
Maduro
Non
Powell
Oui
Warsh
Non
Hegseth
Oui
Bitcoin
Non
Chine
Oui
Ukraine
Non
Russie
Non
Israël
Oui
Hezbollah
Non
Intelligence artificielle / IA
Oui
Accord
Oui
Cessez-le-feu
Non
Pétrole
Oui
S&P
Non
Stock
Oui
Elon / Musk
Non
Anthropic / Claude
Non
OpenAI / ChatGPT
Non
Ayatollah / Khamenei / Khomenei
Non
Détroit d'Ormuz / Détroit / Ormuz
Non
Zohran / Mamdani
Non
$43,739 Vol.
Iran
Oui
Donald / Trump
Oui
Maduro
Non
Powell
Oui
Warsh
Non
Hegseth
Oui
Bitcoin
Non
Chine
Oui
Ukraine
Non
Russie
Non
Israël
Oui
Hezbollah
Non
Intelligence artificielle / IA
Oui
Accord
Oui
Cessez-le-feu
Non
Pétrole
Oui
S&P
Non
Stock
Oui
Elon / Musk
Non
Anthropic / Claude
Non
OpenAI / ChatGPT
Non
Ayatollah / Khamenei / Khomenei
Non
Détroit d'Ormuz / Détroit / Ormuz
Non
Zohran / Mamdani
Non
A headline is defined as the bolded or enlarged text directly preceding each article, previewing the article’s content and typically separated from the article’s text by a black line and byline. The primary headline for each story is the headline for that story with the largest text, typically appearing in bold font and above any other headlines or text for that article.
Sub-headlines, defined as additional bolded or enlarged text not separated from the primary headline by any text, will count, whether they appear before the byline or are partially surrounded by the article text but still adjacent to the primary headline. Pull quotes, however, or any bolded text not adjacent to the primary headline, will not count.
Banner headlines, defined as front-page headlines bordered on the sides only by white space, will count.
Image captions, article text, or any other text that does not constitute a headline will not qualify.
Any plural or possessive forms of a listed term, as well as variations in capitalization, will count toward the resolution of this market, regardless of context. Other forms of the listed term will not count.
Misspellings or iterations of the listed term, including all slang forms, will not count toward a “Yes” resolution, regardless of context or intent.
If the listed term appears as part of a compound word, use of that compound word will qualify, provided the listed term remains a distinct component of the compound. This does not include suffixes, prefixes, alternative tenses, or grammatical variations that alter the root word. For example, if the listed term is “joy,” “killjoy” qualifies but “joyful” does not. If the listed term is “sun,” “sunflower” qualifies but “sunny” does not.
If the listed term is part of a hyphenated compound, use of that hyphenated compound will qualify. For example, if the listed term is “NATO,” “pro-NATO” and “anti-NATO” qualify.
If the listed term has non-standard transliterations into English, such transliterations will qualify if they are phonetically equivalent. For example, if the listed term is “Erdogan,” “Erdoğan” qualifies. If the listed term is “Zelensky,” “Zelenskiy” qualifies.
If the listed term is an abbreviation, periodized forms of that abbreviation will qualify. For example, if the listed term is “AI,” “A.I.” qualifies. However, extraneous symbols inserted into a word (e.g. r@d1cal for “radical”) will disqualify it from counting toward a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be the New York Times daily newspaper, including images of the front page posted daily at: https://nytimes.pressreader.com/the-new-york-times/.
Marché ouvert : Apr 24, 2026, 6:02 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Résultat proposé: Oui
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Oui
A headline is defined as the bolded or enlarged text directly preceding each article, previewing the article’s content and typically separated from the article’s text by a black line and byline. The primary headline for each story is the headline for that story with the largest text, typically appearing in bold font and above any other headlines or text for that article.
Sub-headlines, defined as additional bolded or enlarged text not separated from the primary headline by any text, will count, whether they appear before the byline or are partially surrounded by the article text but still adjacent to the primary headline. Pull quotes, however, or any bolded text not adjacent to the primary headline, will not count.
Banner headlines, defined as front-page headlines bordered on the sides only by white space, will count.
Image captions, article text, or any other text that does not constitute a headline will not qualify.
Any plural or possessive forms of a listed term, as well as variations in capitalization, will count toward the resolution of this market, regardless of context. Other forms of the listed term will not count.
Misspellings or iterations of the listed term, including all slang forms, will not count toward a “Yes” resolution, regardless of context or intent.
If the listed term appears as part of a compound word, use of that compound word will qualify, provided the listed term remains a distinct component of the compound. This does not include suffixes, prefixes, alternative tenses, or grammatical variations that alter the root word. For example, if the listed term is “joy,” “killjoy” qualifies but “joyful” does not. If the listed term is “sun,” “sunflower” qualifies but “sunny” does not.
If the listed term is part of a hyphenated compound, use of that hyphenated compound will qualify. For example, if the listed term is “NATO,” “pro-NATO” and “anti-NATO” qualify.
If the listed term has non-standard transliterations into English, such transliterations will qualify if they are phonetically equivalent. For example, if the listed term is “Erdogan,” “Erdoğan” qualifies. If the listed term is “Zelensky,” “Zelenskiy” qualifies.
If the listed term is an abbreviation, periodized forms of that abbreviation will qualify. For example, if the listed term is “AI,” “A.I.” qualifies. However, extraneous symbols inserted into a word (e.g. r@d1cal for “radical”) will disqualify it from counting toward a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be the New York Times daily newspaper, including images of the front page posted daily at: https://nytimes.pressreader.com/the-new-york-times/.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Résultat proposé: Oui
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Oui
Trader consensus on Polymarket's binary markets for specific terms like "Ceasefire," "Hezbollah," "OpenAI/ChatGPT," and "Strait of Hormuz" has collapsed to near-zero implied probabilities as the April 27-May 3 window closes, with no matches in New York Times front-page headlines per print editions at nytimes.pressreader.com. Front pages instead led with the April 27 armed attack at the White House Correspondents' Dinner—"Confusion and Fright Inside the Washington Hilton Ballroom" and "Grievance Propelled Gala Attack Suspect"—amid political violence fatigue, Trump administration moves like the Comey indictment and FCC ABC probe, Supreme Court clashes on voting rights and TPS, Iran war impatience sans key phrases, and Spirit Airlines' shutdown. Resolution imminent May 3 tests strict headline criteria.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour


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