Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 74.5% implied probability that Max Verstappen will not retire from F1 at the end of 2026, despite his recent frustrations with the underwhelming new regulations and Red Bull's uncompetitive RB21 chassis and power unit. Sitting ninth in the drivers' standings with just 12 points after lackluster results like a DNF in China and eighth in Japan, Verstappen has voiced he's "not enjoying" the sport and is weighing his future amid race engineer Gianpiero Lambiase's confirmed 2028 departure to McLaren. Yet, his contract through 2028—with performance-tied exit clauses not yet triggered—father Jos's reassurance of continued commitment, and the driver's history of podium contention and four titles underpin the market's skepticism toward an abrupt exit.