Zohran Mamdani, born in Uganda and naturalized as a U.S. citizen in 2018 after arriving as a child, won the 2025 New York City mayoral election. Trader consensus at 98.7% against revocation before 2027 stems from the high legal threshold for denaturalization, which requires documented material misrepresentation during the naturalization process—none substantiated in public records or investigations. Post-election Republican calls for probes produced no formal charges or proceedings, and courts have historically limited such actions absent clear fraud. While campaign-era statements raised the issue, institutional safeguards, due process requirements, and the absence of new evidence sustain the low probability. Rare shifts could occur only through verified DOJ findings of ineligibility or unprecedented executive action, both facing substantial procedural and judicial hurdles by the 2027 deadline.