Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 89.5% implied probability to no change in the Bank of Japan's policy rate at 0.75% for the April 27-28 monetary policy meeting, driven by Governor Kazuo Ueda's April 13 remarks urging vigilance amid Middle East tensions and surging oil prices that exacerbate inflation while threatening growth. A protracted Iran conflict has spiked oil +50% recently, prompting BoJ to consider upward revisions to its fiscal 2026 inflation forecast above 1.9% alongside downgraded GDP outlooks, creating a stagflation dilemma that favors caution over a hike. This follows the March hold amid modest real wage gains (1.9% YoY February) and accommodative financial conditions, with JGB 10-year yields near 2.4%; a 25 basis point increase carries just 8.5% odds pending fresh data.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाकोई बदलाव नहीं 90%
25 आधार अंकों की वृद्धि 8%
50+ बीपीएस वृद्धि <1%
दरें घटाएँ <1%
$702,438 वॉल्यूम
$702,438 वॉल्यूम
28 अप्रैल, 2026
दरें घटाएँ
<1%
कोई बदलाव नहीं
90%
25 आधार अंकों की वृद्धि
8%
50+ बीपीएस वृद्धि
<1%
कोई बदलाव नहीं 90%
25 आधार अंकों की वृद्धि 8%
50+ बीपीएस वृद्धि <1%
दरें घटाएँ <1%
$702,438 वॉल्यूम
$702,438 वॉल्यूम
28 अप्रैल, 2026
दरें घटाएँ
$160,877 वॉल्यूम
<1%
कोई बदलाव नहीं
$141,240 वॉल्यूम
90%
25 आधार अंकों की वृद्धि
$147,941 वॉल्यूम
8%
50+ बीपीएस वृद्धि
$253,048 वॉल्यूम
<1%
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for April is scheduled to be released on April 28, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's April 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 89.5% implied probability to no change in the Bank of Japan's policy rate at 0.75% for the April 27-28 monetary policy meeting, driven by Governor Kazuo Ueda's April 13 remarks urging vigilance amid Middle East tensions and surging oil prices that exacerbate inflation while threatening growth. A protracted Iran conflict has spiked oil +50% recently, prompting BoJ to consider upward revisions to its fiscal 2026 inflation forecast above 1.9% alongside downgraded GDP outlooks, creating a stagflation dilemma that favors caution over a hike. This follows the March hold amid modest real wage gains (1.9% YoY February) and accommodative financial conditions, with JGB 10-year yields near 2.4%; a 25 basis point increase carries just 8.5% odds pending fresh data.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for April is scheduled to be released on April 28, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's April 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's April 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
बाज़ार खुला: Jan 23, 2026, 6:22 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$702,438समाप्ति तिथि
28 अप्रैल, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 23, 2026, 6:22 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for April is scheduled to be released on April 28, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's April 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 89.5% implied probability to no change in the Bank of Japan's policy rate at 0.75% for the April 27-28 monetary policy meeting, driven by Governor Kazuo Ueda's April 13 remarks urging vigilance amid Middle East tensions and surging oil prices that exacerbate inflation while threatening growth. A protracted Iran conflict has spiked oil +50% recently, prompting BoJ to consider upward revisions to its fiscal 2026 inflation forecast above 1.9% alongside downgraded GDP outlooks, creating a stagflation dilemma that favors caution over a hike. This follows the March hold amid modest real wage gains (1.9% YoY February) and accommodative financial conditions, with JGB 10-year yields near 2.4%; a 25 basis point increase carries just 8.5% odds pending fresh data.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for April is scheduled to be released on April 28, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's April 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's April 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
वॉल्यूम
$702,438समाप्ति तिथि
28 अप्रैल, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 23, 2026, 6:22 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 89.5% implied probability to no change in the Bank of Japan's policy rate at 0.75% for the April 27-28 monetary policy meeting, driven by Governor Kazuo Ueda's April 13 remarks urging vigilance amid Middle East tensions and surging oil prices that exacerbate inflation while threatening growth. A protracted Iran conflict has spiked oil +50% recently, prompting BoJ to consider upward revisions to its fiscal 2026 inflation forecast above 1.9% alongside downgraded GDP outlooks, creating a stagflation dilemma that favors caution over a hike. This follows the March hold amid modest real wage gains (1.9% YoY February) and accommodative financial conditions, with JGB 10-year yields near 2.4%; a 25 basis point increase carries just 8.5% odds pending fresh data.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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