Progressive Bulgaria (PB), led by former President Rumen Radev, commands a consistent polling lead over GERB-SDS in the April 19 snap parliamentary election, with recent surveys like CAR (April 3-14) showing a 13-point margin (32% vs. 19%) and Sova Harris (April 2-6) a 15-point gap (34% vs. 19%), driving trader consensus toward PB's 10-15% victory margin at 48.5% implied probability and 5-10% at 31%. Earlier April polls, such as Gallup's 5-point lead, reflect some tightening uncertainty, but PB's surge amid Bulgaria's eighth election since 2021 and fragmented opposition—Democratic Bulgaria at 11-12%, DPS at 10-11%—bolsters expectations of a clear PB plurality under proportional representation, though no outright majority is projected, complicating coalition negotiations. GERB-SDS victory odds remain negligible at 0.4% given trailing vote intentions.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाBulgaria Parliamentary Election: Margin of Victory
Bulgaria Parliamentary Election: Margin of Victory
PB 10-15% 52%
PB 5-10% 26%
PB 15-20% 18%
PB 20%+ 6.7%
$44,760 वॉल्यूम
$44,760 वॉल्यूम
19 अप्रैल, 2026
PB 20%+
7%
PB 15-20%
18%
PB 10-15%
49%
PB 5-10%
31%
PB <5%
5%
GERB-SDS Victory
<1%
Other
<1%
PB 10-15% 52%
PB 5-10% 26%
PB 15-20% 18%
PB 20%+ 6.7%
$44,760 वॉल्यूम
$44,760 वॉल्यूम
19 अप्रैल, 2026
PB 20%+
$2,792 वॉल्यूम
7%
PB 15-20%
$15,312 वॉल्यूम
18%
PB 10-15%
$14,360 वॉल्यूम
49%
PB 5-10%
$7,142 वॉल्यूम
31%
PB <5%
$2,376 वॉल्यूम
5%
GERB-SDS Victory
$1,609 वॉल्यूम
<1%
Other
$1,169 वॉल्यूम
<1%
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Bulgaria on April 19, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of valid votes in this election.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the political party that wins the most valid votes nationwide and the political party that wins the second-most valid votes nationwide. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If two or more parties tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between the two parties listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed party and an unlisted party, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed party. If the tie is between two or more unlisted parties, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted party wins the most valid votes in this election, or the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).Progressive Bulgaria (PB), led by former President Rumen Radev, commands a consistent polling lead over GERB-SDS in the April 19 snap parliamentary election, with recent surveys like CAR (April 3-14) showing a 13-point margin (32% vs. 19%) and Sova Harris (April 2-6) a 15-point gap (34% vs. 19%), driving trader consensus toward PB's 10-15% victory margin at 48.5% implied probability and 5-10% at 31%. Earlier April polls, such as Gallup's 5-point lead, reflect some tightening uncertainty, but PB's surge amid Bulgaria's eighth election since 2021 and fragmented opposition—Democratic Bulgaria at 11-12%, DPS at 10-11%—bolsters expectations of a clear PB plurality under proportional representation, though no outright majority is projected, complicating coalition negotiations. GERB-SDS victory odds remain negligible at 0.4% given trailing vote intentions.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Bulgaria on April 19, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of valid votes in this election.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the political party that wins the most valid votes nationwide and the political party that wins the second-most valid votes nationwide. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If two or more parties tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between the two parties listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed party and an unlisted party, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed party. If the tie is between two or more unlisted parties, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted party wins the most valid votes in this election, or the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of valid votes in this election.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the political party that wins the most valid votes nationwide and the political party that wins the second-most valid votes nationwide. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If two or more parties tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between the two parties listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed party and an unlisted party, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed party. If the tie is between two or more unlisted parties, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted party wins the most valid votes in this election, or the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).
बाज़ार खुला: Mar 27, 2026, 2:02 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$44,760समाप्ति तिथि
19 अप्रैल, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Mar 27, 2026, 2:02 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Bulgaria on April 19, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of valid votes in this election.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the political party that wins the most valid votes nationwide and the political party that wins the second-most valid votes nationwide. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If two or more parties tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between the two parties listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed party and an unlisted party, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed party. If the tie is between two or more unlisted parties, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted party wins the most valid votes in this election, or the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).Progressive Bulgaria (PB), led by former President Rumen Radev, commands a consistent polling lead over GERB-SDS in the April 19 snap parliamentary election, with recent surveys like CAR (April 3-14) showing a 13-point margin (32% vs. 19%) and Sova Harris (April 2-6) a 15-point gap (34% vs. 19%), driving trader consensus toward PB's 10-15% victory margin at 48.5% implied probability and 5-10% at 31%. Earlier April polls, such as Gallup's 5-point lead, reflect some tightening uncertainty, but PB's surge amid Bulgaria's eighth election since 2021 and fragmented opposition—Democratic Bulgaria at 11-12%, DPS at 10-11%—bolsters expectations of a clear PB plurality under proportional representation, though no outright majority is projected, complicating coalition negotiations. GERB-SDS victory odds remain negligible at 0.4% given trailing vote intentions.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Bulgaria on April 19, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of valid votes in this election.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the political party that wins the most valid votes nationwide and the political party that wins the second-most valid votes nationwide. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If two or more parties tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between the two parties listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed party and an unlisted party, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed party. If the tie is between two or more unlisted parties, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted party wins the most valid votes in this election, or the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of valid votes in this election.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the political party that wins the most valid votes nationwide and the political party that wins the second-most valid votes nationwide. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If two or more parties tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between the two parties listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed party and an unlisted party, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed party. If the tie is between two or more unlisted parties, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted party wins the most valid votes in this election, or the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).
वॉल्यूम
$44,760समाप्ति तिथि
19 अप्रैल, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Mar 27, 2026, 2:02 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Progressive Bulgaria (PB), led by former President Rumen Radev, commands a consistent polling lead over GERB-SDS in the April 19 snap parliamentary election, with recent surveys like CAR (April 3-14) showing a 13-point margin (32% vs. 19%) and Sova Harris (April 2-6) a 15-point gap (34% vs. 19%), driving trader consensus toward PB's 10-15% victory margin at 48.5% implied probability and 5-10% at 31%. Earlier April polls, such as Gallup's 5-point lead, reflect some tightening uncertainty, but PB's surge amid Bulgaria's eighth election since 2021 and fragmented opposition—Democratic Bulgaria at 11-12%, DPS at 10-11%—bolsters expectations of a clear PB plurality under proportional representation, though no outright majority is projected, complicating coalition negotiations. GERB-SDS victory odds remain negligible at 0.4% given trailing vote intentions.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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