Progressive Bulgaria (PB), led by former President Rumen Radev, commands a strong lead in opinion polls ahead of the April 19 snap parliamentary election, the eighth since 2021 under proportional representation for 240 seats. Recent surveys, including Sova Harris (April 2-6: PB 34%, GERB-SDS 19%) and CAR (April 3-14: PB 32%, GERB-SDS 19%), show PB ahead by 13-15 points, with Gallup (early April) at a narrower 5 points, aligning trader consensus on a 10-15% margin victory at 48% implied probability and 5-10% at 30.5%. Stable polling amid voter fatigue and no major campaign shocks has solidified PB's frontrunner status, though high undecideds and turnout could narrow the gap before polls close. GERB-SDS trails distant at under 1% for outright win.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाBulgaria Parliamentary Election: Margin of Victory
Bulgaria Parliamentary Election: Margin of Victory
PB 10-15% 52%
PB 5-10% 31%
PB 15-20% 18%
PB 20%+ 6.7%
$44,760 वॉल्यूम
$44,760 वॉल्यूम
19 अप्रैल, 2026
PB 20%+
7%
PB 15-20%
18%
PB 10-15%
49%
PB 5-10%
31%
PB <5%
5%
GERB-SDS Victory
<1%
Other
<1%
PB 10-15% 52%
PB 5-10% 31%
PB 15-20% 18%
PB 20%+ 6.7%
$44,760 वॉल्यूम
$44,760 वॉल्यूम
19 अप्रैल, 2026
PB 20%+
$2,792 वॉल्यूम
7%
PB 15-20%
$15,312 वॉल्यूम
18%
PB 10-15%
$14,360 वॉल्यूम
49%
PB 5-10%
$7,142 वॉल्यूम
31%
PB <5%
$2,376 वॉल्यूम
5%
GERB-SDS Victory
$1,609 वॉल्यूम
<1%
Other
$1,169 वॉल्यूम
<1%
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Bulgaria on April 19, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of valid votes in this election.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the political party that wins the most valid votes nationwide and the political party that wins the second-most valid votes nationwide. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If two or more parties tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between the two parties listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed party and an unlisted party, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed party. If the tie is between two or more unlisted parties, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted party wins the most valid votes in this election, or the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).Progressive Bulgaria (PB), led by former President Rumen Radev, commands a strong lead in opinion polls ahead of the April 19 snap parliamentary election, the eighth since 2021 under proportional representation for 240 seats. Recent surveys, including Sova Harris (April 2-6: PB 34%, GERB-SDS 19%) and CAR (April 3-14: PB 32%, GERB-SDS 19%), show PB ahead by 13-15 points, with Gallup (early April) at a narrower 5 points, aligning trader consensus on a 10-15% margin victory at 48% implied probability and 5-10% at 30.5%. Stable polling amid voter fatigue and no major campaign shocks has solidified PB's frontrunner status, though high undecideds and turnout could narrow the gap before polls close. GERB-SDS trails distant at under 1% for outright win.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Bulgaria on April 19, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of valid votes in this election.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the political party that wins the most valid votes nationwide and the political party that wins the second-most valid votes nationwide. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If two or more parties tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between the two parties listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed party and an unlisted party, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed party. If the tie is between two or more unlisted parties, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted party wins the most valid votes in this election, or the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of valid votes in this election.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the political party that wins the most valid votes nationwide and the political party that wins the second-most valid votes nationwide. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If two or more parties tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between the two parties listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed party and an unlisted party, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed party. If the tie is between two or more unlisted parties, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted party wins the most valid votes in this election, or the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).
बाज़ार खुला: Mar 27, 2026, 2:02 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$44,760समाप्ति तिथि
19 अप्रैल, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Mar 27, 2026, 2:02 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Bulgaria on April 19, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of valid votes in this election.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the political party that wins the most valid votes nationwide and the political party that wins the second-most valid votes nationwide. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If two or more parties tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between the two parties listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed party and an unlisted party, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed party. If the tie is between two or more unlisted parties, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted party wins the most valid votes in this election, or the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).Progressive Bulgaria (PB), led by former President Rumen Radev, commands a strong lead in opinion polls ahead of the April 19 snap parliamentary election, the eighth since 2021 under proportional representation for 240 seats. Recent surveys, including Sova Harris (April 2-6: PB 34%, GERB-SDS 19%) and CAR (April 3-14: PB 32%, GERB-SDS 19%), show PB ahead by 13-15 points, with Gallup (early April) at a narrower 5 points, aligning trader consensus on a 10-15% margin victory at 48% implied probability and 5-10% at 30.5%. Stable polling amid voter fatigue and no major campaign shocks has solidified PB's frontrunner status, though high undecideds and turnout could narrow the gap before polls close. GERB-SDS trails distant at under 1% for outright win.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Bulgaria on April 19, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of valid votes in this election.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the political party that wins the most valid votes nationwide and the political party that wins the second-most valid votes nationwide. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If two or more parties tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between the two parties listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed party and an unlisted party, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed party. If the tie is between two or more unlisted parties, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted party wins the most valid votes in this election, or the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of valid votes in this election.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the political party that wins the most valid votes nationwide and the political party that wins the second-most valid votes nationwide. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If two or more parties tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between the two parties listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed party and an unlisted party, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed party. If the tie is between two or more unlisted parties, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted party wins the most valid votes in this election, or the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).
वॉल्यूम
$44,760समाप्ति तिथि
19 अप्रैल, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Mar 27, 2026, 2:02 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Progressive Bulgaria (PB), led by former President Rumen Radev, commands a strong lead in opinion polls ahead of the April 19 snap parliamentary election, the eighth since 2021 under proportional representation for 240 seats. Recent surveys, including Sova Harris (April 2-6: PB 34%, GERB-SDS 19%) and CAR (April 3-14: PB 32%, GERB-SDS 19%), show PB ahead by 13-15 points, with Gallup (early April) at a narrower 5 points, aligning trader consensus on a 10-15% margin victory at 48% implied probability and 5-10% at 30.5%. Stable polling amid voter fatigue and no major campaign shocks has solidified PB's frontrunner status, though high undecideds and turnout could narrow the gap before polls close. GERB-SDS trails distant at under 1% for outright win.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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