Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects profound uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Lagos' highest temperature on April 19, with implied probabilities tightly split between extremes like 37°C or higher (25.5%) and 27°C or below (25.0%), driven by divergent global model outputs from GFS and ECMWF amid the seasonal transition to the early rainy season. NiMet's February 2026 outlook predicts above-normal temperatures nationwide but warns of early thunderstorms and dry spells, introducing variability through cloud cover that reduces daytime insolation and strengthens cooling sea breezes from the Atlantic. Historical April highs average 32°C, rarely exceeding 36°C, yet recent early-month swings—including a 35°C peak on April 10—fuel bets on outliers; key differentiators include ITCZ positioning and morning humidity trapping heat versus convective activity capping peaks. New 00Z model runs and NiMet bulletins expected within 24 hours could sharpen odds.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाHighest temperature in Lagos on April 19?
Highest temperature in Lagos on April 19?
37°C or higher 27%
33°C 22%
31°C 22%
32°C 22%
नया
नया
19 अप्रैल, 2026
27°C or below
3%
28°C
4%
29°C
15%
30°C
18%
31°C
22%
32°C
22%
33°C
22%
34°C
22%
35°C
22%
36°C
20%
37°C or higher
27%
37°C or higher 27%
33°C 22%
31°C 22%
32°C 22%
नया
नया
19 अप्रैल, 2026
27°C or below
$35 वॉल्यूम
3%
28°C
$0 वॉल्यूम
4%
29°C
$0 वॉल्यूम
15%
30°C
$0 वॉल्यूम
18%
31°C
$0 वॉल्यूम
22%
32°C
$0 वॉल्यूम
22%
33°C
$0 वॉल्यूम
22%
34°C
$0 वॉल्यूम
22%
35°C
$0 वॉल्यूम
22%
36°C
$0 वॉल्यूम
20%
37°C or higher
$0 वॉल्यूम
27%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects profound uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Lagos' highest temperature on April 19, with implied probabilities tightly split between extremes like 37°C or higher (25.5%) and 27°C or below (25.0%), driven by divergent global model outputs from GFS and ECMWF amid the seasonal transition to the early rainy season. NiMet's February 2026 outlook predicts above-normal temperatures nationwide but warns of early thunderstorms and dry spells, introducing variability through cloud cover that reduces daytime insolation and strengthens cooling sea breezes from the Atlantic. Historical April highs average 32°C, rarely exceeding 36°C, yet recent early-month swings—including a 35°C peak on April 10—fuel bets on outliers; key differentiators include ITCZ positioning and morning humidity trapping heat versus convective activity capping peaks. New 00Z model runs and NiMet bulletins expected within 24 hours could sharpen odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
बाज़ार खुला: Apr 17, 2026, 12:50 AM ET
वॉल्यूम
$0समाप्ति तिथि
19 अप्रैल, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Apr 17, 2026, 12:50 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects profound uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Lagos' highest temperature on April 19, with implied probabilities tightly split between extremes like 37°C or higher (25.5%) and 27°C or below (25.0%), driven by divergent global model outputs from GFS and ECMWF amid the seasonal transition to the early rainy season. NiMet's February 2026 outlook predicts above-normal temperatures nationwide but warns of early thunderstorms and dry spells, introducing variability through cloud cover that reduces daytime insolation and strengthens cooling sea breezes from the Atlantic. Historical April highs average 32°C, rarely exceeding 36°C, yet recent early-month swings—including a 35°C peak on April 10—fuel bets on outliers; key differentiators include ITCZ positioning and morning humidity trapping heat versus convective activity capping peaks. New 00Z model runs and NiMet bulletins expected within 24 hours could sharpen odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
वॉल्यूम
$0समाप्ति तिथि
19 अप्रैल, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Apr 17, 2026, 12:50 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects profound uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Lagos' highest temperature on April 19, with implied probabilities tightly split between extremes like 37°C or higher (25.5%) and 27°C or below (25.0%), driven by divergent global model outputs from GFS and ECMWF amid the seasonal transition to the early rainy season. NiMet's February 2026 outlook predicts above-normal temperatures nationwide but warns of early thunderstorms and dry spells, introducing variability through cloud cover that reduces daytime insolation and strengthens cooling sea breezes from the Atlantic. Historical April highs average 32°C, rarely exceeding 36°C, yet recent early-month swings—including a 35°C peak on April 10—fuel bets on outliers; key differentiators include ITCZ positioning and morning humidity trapping heat versus convective activity capping peaks. New 00Z model runs and NiMet bulletins expected within 24 hours could sharpen odds.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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