Recent National Weather Service and local forecasts for Seattle on August 15 indicate a high near 77–81°F under mostly sunny to scattered-cloud conditions, aligning with the market’s heaviest weighting on the 76–79°F bins. Marine air advection from Puget Sound and the Pacific, modulated by weak onshore flow and limited afternoon heating, caps potential extremes, while any easterly wind component or reduced cloud cover could briefly push readings into the low 80s. Historical August averages near 75–79°F and the ongoing warmer-than-normal summer pattern provide baseline context, but short-term model variability in sea-breeze timing and boundary-layer mixing creates the observed spread across bins. Traders appear to price in this meteorological uncertainty rather than a single consensus outcome, with tail probabilities reflecting rare but possible deviations from the marine-moderated regime.