Recent forecasts from official and global models show Taipei highs on August 31 likely reaching 32–34 °C under partly cloudy skies with scattered afternoon showers. Consensus across ECMWF, GFS, and Central Weather Administration runs points to modest daytime heating limited by increasing cloud cover and precipitation chances around 40 %, preventing stronger solar-driven peaks near 35 °C or above. High humidity and light easterly winds further moderate surface temperatures compared with recent days that touched 33–34 °C. Trader emphasis on the 33–34 °C outcomes reflects this narrow range of uncertainty, with new model runs and CWA briefings over the next 48 hours the primary catalysts that could shift implied probabilities if convection timing or steering flow changes.