The by-election in this inner-London seat, triggered by Keir Starmer’s early September 2026 resignation to focus on international affairs, has produced tight projections for Labour’s vote share. Camden Council leader Sagal Abdi-Wali faces Green Party leader Zack Polanski in a contest shaped by May 2026 local election results that placed the parties close together, with Labour on roughly 38% and the Greens on 29%. National polling models and by-election-specific forecasts currently place Labour between 35% and 42%, reflecting a narrowed gap from the 2024 general election amid voter priorities on housing, local services, and environmental issues. Trader consensus on the 35-45% brackets captures uncertainty over turnout and the extent of any Green surge in this urban constituency before the 8 October poll.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया40-45% 31%
35-40% 29%
45-50% 20%
30-35% 12.3%
नया
नया
8 अक्टू, 2026
30% से कम
8%
30-35%
12%
35-40%
29%
40-45%
31%
45-50%
20%
50%+
10%
40-45% 31%
35-40% 29%
45-50% 20%
30-35% 12.3%
नया
नया
8 अक्टू, 2026
30% से कम
$504 वॉल्यूम
8%
30-35%
$363 वॉल्यूम
12%
35-40%
$464 वॉल्यूम
29%
40-45%
$1,762 वॉल्यूम
31%
45-50%
$1,543 वॉल्यूम
20%
50%+
$780 वॉल्यूम
10%
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Labour Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).The by-election in this inner-London seat, triggered by Keir Starmer’s early September 2026 resignation to focus on international affairs, has produced tight projections for Labour’s vote share. Camden Council leader Sagal Abdi-Wali faces Green Party leader Zack Polanski in a contest shaped by May 2026 local election results that placed the parties close together, with Labour on roughly 38% and the Greens on 29%. National polling models and by-election-specific forecasts currently place Labour between 35% and 42%, reflecting a narrowed gap from the 2024 general election amid voter priorities on housing, local services, and environmental issues. Trader consensus on the 35-45% brackets captures uncertainty over turnout and the extent of any Green surge in this urban constituency before the 8 October poll.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Labour Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Labour Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
बाज़ार खुला: Sep 14, 2026, 6:49 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$5,416समाप्ति तिथि
8 अक्टू, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Sep 14, 2026, 6:49 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x69c47de9d...A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Labour Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).The by-election in this inner-London seat, triggered by Keir Starmer’s early September 2026 resignation to focus on international affairs, has produced tight projections for Labour’s vote share. Camden Council leader Sagal Abdi-Wali faces Green Party leader Zack Polanski in a contest shaped by May 2026 local election results that placed the parties close together, with Labour on roughly 38% and the Greens on 29%. National polling models and by-election-specific forecasts currently place Labour between 35% and 42%, reflecting a narrowed gap from the 2024 general election amid voter priorities on housing, local services, and environmental issues. Trader consensus on the 35-45% brackets captures uncertainty over turnout and the extent of any Green surge in this urban constituency before the 8 October poll.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Labour Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Labour Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
वॉल्यूम
$5,416समाप्ति तिथि
8 अक्टू, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Sep 14, 2026, 6:49 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x69c47de9d...The by-election in this inner-London seat, triggered by Keir Starmer’s early September 2026 resignation to focus on international affairs, has produced tight projections for Labour’s vote share. Camden Council leader Sagal Abdi-Wali faces Green Party leader Zack Polanski in a contest shaped by May 2026 local election results that placed the parties close together, with Labour on roughly 38% and the Greens on 29%. National polling models and by-election-specific forecasts currently place Labour between 35% and 42%, reflecting a narrowed gap from the 2024 general election amid voter priorities on housing, local services, and environmental issues. Trader consensus on the 35-45% brackets captures uncertainty over turnout and the extent of any Green surge in this urban constituency before the 8 October poll.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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