Trader sentiment on the peak US unemployment rate in 2026 hinges on the labor market's recent resilience amid cooling job growth, as evidenced by March 2026's Bureau of Labor Statistics report showing nonfarm payrolls rising 178,000—well above the 59,000 consensus—and the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3%. Federal Reserve March projections point to a modest uptick to 4.4% by year-end, reflecting balanced risks from moderating inflation and steady Fed funds rate expectations around 4.25-4.50%. Private forecasts like the Philadelphia Fed's Q1 survey anticipate 4.5% by Q4, with some eyeing a 4.7-4.8% peak if growth slows further. Key catalysts include the April jobs report due early May and the FOMC meeting April 28-29, where updated dot plots could recalibrate policy paths influencing hiring dynamics.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया$358,268 वॉल्यूम
10 जन, 2026
5.0%
44%
5.5%
29%
6.0%
18%
7.0%
13%
10.0%
5%
$358,268 वॉल्यूम
5.0%
$87,864 वॉल्यूम
44%
5.5%
$180,133 वॉल्यूम
29%
6.0%
$50,157 वॉल्यूम
18%
7.0%
$17,534 वॉल्यूम
13%
10.0%
$22,580 वॉल्यूम
5%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Trader sentiment on the peak US unemployment rate in 2026 hinges on the labor market's recent resilience amid cooling job growth, as evidenced by March 2026's Bureau of Labor Statistics report showing nonfarm payrolls rising 178,000—well above the 59,000 consensus—and the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3%. Federal Reserve March projections point to a modest uptick to 4.4% by year-end, reflecting balanced risks from moderating inflation and steady Fed funds rate expectations around 4.25-4.50%. Private forecasts like the Philadelphia Fed's Q1 survey anticipate 4.5% by Q4, with some eyeing a 4.7-4.8% peak if growth slows further. Key catalysts include the April jobs report due early May and the FOMC meeting April 28-29, where updated dot plots could recalibrate policy paths influencing hiring dynamics.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
बाज़ार खुला: Jan 2, 2026, 1:53 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$358,268समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 2, 2026, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Trader sentiment on the peak US unemployment rate in 2026 hinges on the labor market's recent resilience amid cooling job growth, as evidenced by March 2026's Bureau of Labor Statistics report showing nonfarm payrolls rising 178,000—well above the 59,000 consensus—and the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3%. Federal Reserve March projections point to a modest uptick to 4.4% by year-end, reflecting balanced risks from moderating inflation and steady Fed funds rate expectations around 4.25-4.50%. Private forecasts like the Philadelphia Fed's Q1 survey anticipate 4.5% by Q4, with some eyeing a 4.7-4.8% peak if growth slows further. Key catalysts include the April jobs report due early May and the FOMC meeting April 28-29, where updated dot plots could recalibrate policy paths influencing hiring dynamics.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
वॉल्यूम
$358,268समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 2, 2026, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader sentiment on the peak US unemployment rate in 2026 hinges on the labor market's recent resilience amid cooling job growth, as evidenced by March 2026's Bureau of Labor Statistics report showing nonfarm payrolls rising 178,000—well above the 59,000 consensus—and the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3%. Federal Reserve March projections point to a modest uptick to 4.4% by year-end, reflecting balanced risks from moderating inflation and steady Fed funds rate expectations around 4.25-4.50%. Private forecasts like the Philadelphia Fed's Q1 survey anticipate 4.5% by Q4, with some eyeing a 4.7-4.8% peak if growth slows further. Key catalysts include the April jobs report due early May and the FOMC meeting April 28-29, where updated dot plots could recalibrate policy paths influencing hiring dynamics.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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