Recent hawkish signals from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole, combined with surging oil prices and persistent inflation above the 2% target, have driven the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.78% as of September 1, 2026—its highest level since early 2025. Markets now price roughly a 60-68% chance of a 25-basis-point rate hike at the September 16 FOMC meeting, reflecting expectations of tighter monetary policy amid resilient labor conditions and elevated core PCE readings near 3.4%. Key upcoming data, including the August employment report and September 11 CPI release, will further shape rate-path expectations and the yield trajectory through year-end. These dynamics underscore how inflation momentum and policy tightening risks limit the scope for significant yield declines before 2027.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया$227,916 वॉल्यूम
30 दिस, 2026
3.9%
12%
3.8%
8%
3.7%
2%
3.6%
5%
3.5%
1%
3.0%
2%
2.0%
3%
1.0%
2%
$227,916 वॉल्यूम
3.9%
$45,421 वॉल्यूम
12%
3.8%
$42,521 वॉल्यूम
8%
3.7%
$27,425 वॉल्यूम
2%
3.6%
$5,589 वॉल्यूम
5%
3.5%
$33,136 वॉल्यूम
1%
3.0%
$932 वॉल्यूम
2%
2.0%
$564 वॉल्यूम
3%
1.0%
$40,570 वॉल्यूम
2%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).Recent hawkish signals from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole, combined with surging oil prices and persistent inflation above the 2% target, have driven the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.78% as of September 1, 2026—its highest level since early 2025. Markets now price roughly a 60-68% chance of a 25-basis-point rate hike at the September 16 FOMC meeting, reflecting expectations of tighter monetary policy amid resilient labor conditions and elevated core PCE readings near 3.4%. Key upcoming data, including the August employment report and September 11 CPI release, will further shape rate-path expectations and the yield trajectory through year-end. These dynamics underscore how inflation momentum and policy tightening risks limit the scope for significant yield declines before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
बाज़ार खुला: Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$227,916समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).Recent hawkish signals from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole, combined with surging oil prices and persistent inflation above the 2% target, have driven the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.78% as of September 1, 2026—its highest level since early 2025. Markets now price roughly a 60-68% chance of a 25-basis-point rate hike at the September 16 FOMC meeting, reflecting expectations of tighter monetary policy amid resilient labor conditions and elevated core PCE readings near 3.4%. Key upcoming data, including the August employment report and September 11 CPI release, will further shape rate-path expectations and the yield trajectory through year-end. These dynamics underscore how inflation momentum and policy tightening risks limit the scope for significant yield declines before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
वॉल्यूम
$227,916समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x65070BE91...Recent hawkish signals from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole, combined with surging oil prices and persistent inflation above the 2% target, have driven the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.78% as of September 1, 2026—its highest level since early 2025. Markets now price roughly a 60-68% chance of a 25-basis-point rate hike at the September 16 FOMC meeting, reflecting expectations of tighter monetary policy amid resilient labor conditions and elevated core PCE readings near 3.4%. Key upcoming data, including the August employment report and September 11 CPI release, will further shape rate-path expectations and the yield trajectory through year-end. These dynamics underscore how inflation momentum and policy tightening risks limit the scope for significant yield declines before 2027.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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