Polymarket traders price a 39.1% implied probability of zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, with 26.5% odds for one 25 basis point reduction, reflecting hawkish repricing after March CPI surged 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4% amid energy shocks tied to the Iran conflict. This aligns with the March 18 FOMC dot plot's median end-2026 federal funds rate projection of 3.4%, implying just one cut from the current 3.50%-3.75% target range held steady for the second meeting. Strong March nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs and FOMC minutes released April 8 underscore persistent inflation risks and labor resilience, dimming multi-cut prospects. Traders eye the April 28-29 FOMC for further guidance amid elevated Treasury yields.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया0 (0 बीपीएस) 39.0%
1 (25 बीपीएस) 27%
2 (50 बीपीएस) 16%
3 (75 बीपीएस) 9%
$19,242,601 वॉल्यूम
$19,242,601 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
0 (0 बीपीएस)
39%
1 (25 बीपीएस)
27%
2 (50 बीपीएस)
16%
3 (75 बीपीएस)
9%
4 (100 बीपीएस)
4%
5 (125 बीपीएस)
1%
6 (150 बीपीएस)
1%
7 (175 बीपीएस)
<1%
8 (200 बेसिस प्वाइंट्स)
<1%
9 (225 बीपीएस)
<1%
10 (250 बेसिस प्वाइंट्स)
<1%
11 (275 बीपीएस)
<1%
12+ (300+ बीपीएस)
1%
0 (0 बीपीएस) 39.0%
1 (25 बीपीएस) 27%
2 (50 बीपीएस) 16%
3 (75 बीपीएस) 9%
$19,242,601 वॉल्यूम
$19,242,601 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
0 (0 बीपीएस)
$3,199,350 वॉल्यूम
39%
1 (25 बीपीएस)
$1,039,683 वॉल्यूम
27%
2 (50 बीपीएस)
$1,011,482 वॉल्यूम
16%
3 (75 बीपीएस)
$934,716 वॉल्यूम
9%
4 (100 बीपीएस)
$966,252 वॉल्यूम
4%
5 (125 बीपीएस)
$1,062,071 वॉल्यूम
1%
6 (150 बीपीएस)
$2,098,329 वॉल्यूम
1%
7 (175 बीपीएस)
$947,372 वॉल्यूम
<1%
8 (200 बेसिस प्वाइंट्स)
$1,221,744 वॉल्यूम
<1%
9 (225 बीपीएस)
$1,214,648 वॉल्यूम
<1%
10 (250 बेसिस प्वाइंट्स)
$1,700,740 वॉल्यूम
<1%
11 (275 बीपीएस)
$2,020,599 वॉल्यूम
<1%
12+ (300+ बीपीएस)
$1,834,734 वॉल्यूम
1%
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Polymarket traders price a 39.1% implied probability of zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, with 26.5% odds for one 25 basis point reduction, reflecting hawkish repricing after March CPI surged 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4% amid energy shocks tied to the Iran conflict. This aligns with the March 18 FOMC dot plot's median end-2026 federal funds rate projection of 3.4%, implying just one cut from the current 3.50%-3.75% target range held steady for the second meeting. Strong March nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs and FOMC minutes released April 8 underscore persistent inflation risks and labor resilience, dimming multi-cut prospects. Traders eye the April 28-29 FOMC for further guidance amid elevated Treasury yields.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
बाज़ार खुला: Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$19,242,601समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Polymarket traders price a 39.1% implied probability of zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, with 26.5% odds for one 25 basis point reduction, reflecting hawkish repricing after March CPI surged 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4% amid energy shocks tied to the Iran conflict. This aligns with the March 18 FOMC dot plot's median end-2026 federal funds rate projection of 3.4%, implying just one cut from the current 3.50%-3.75% target range held steady for the second meeting. Strong March nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs and FOMC minutes released April 8 underscore persistent inflation risks and labor resilience, dimming multi-cut prospects. Traders eye the April 28-29 FOMC for further guidance amid elevated Treasury yields.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
वॉल्यूम
$19,242,601समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders price a 39.1% implied probability of zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, with 26.5% odds for one 25 basis point reduction, reflecting hawkish repricing after March CPI surged 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4% amid energy shocks tied to the Iran conflict. This aligns with the March 18 FOMC dot plot's median end-2026 federal funds rate projection of 3.4%, implying just one cut from the current 3.50%-3.75% target range held steady for the second meeting. Strong March nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs and FOMC minutes released April 8 underscore persistent inflation risks and labor resilience, dimming multi-cut prospects. Traders eye the April 28-29 FOMC for further guidance amid elevated Treasury yields.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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