Polymarket traders, wagering real capital, price a year-end 2026 federal funds rate near current levels at 3.5% (35.5% implied probability) or 3.75% (30.2%), reflecting closely contested sentiment amid resilient economic data. March 2026 CPI surged to 3.3% annually—the highest since May 2024—fueled by energy shocks from the Iran conflict, while nonfarm payrolls added 178,000 jobs against expectations of 59,000, edging unemployment to 4.3%. These prints align with the FOMC's March dot plot median of 3.4%, tempering rate-cut bets versus prior easing paths. Key differentiators include sticky core inflation and labor strength; upcoming April CPI (May 12 release) and May FOMC could sway the balance toward modest adjustment or steady policy.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया3.5% 36%
3.75% 30.0%
3.25% 10%
4.0% 6.0%
$6,296,719 वॉल्यूम
$6,296,719 वॉल्यूम
9 दिस, 2026
≤1.0%
1%
1.25
2%
1.5%
<1%
1.75%
1%
2.0%
1%
2.25%
1%
2.5%
1%
2.75%
2%
3.0%
4%
3.25%
10%
3.5%
36%
3.75%
30%
4.0%
6%
4.25%
1%
≥ 4.5%
3%
3.5% 36%
3.75% 30.0%
3.25% 10%
4.0% 6.0%
$6,296,719 वॉल्यूम
$6,296,719 वॉल्यूम
9 दिस, 2026
≤1.0%
$211,761 वॉल्यूम
1%
1.25
$111,883 वॉल्यूम
2%
1.5%
$124,708 वॉल्यूम
<1%
1.75%
$125,263 वॉल्यूम
1%
2.0%
$173,946 वॉल्यूम
1%
2.25%
$63,478 वॉल्यूम
1%
2.5%
$154,308 वॉल्यूम
1%
2.75%
$26,196 वॉल्यूम
2%
3.0%
$443,064 वॉल्यूम
4%
3.25%
$41,365 वॉल्यूम
10%
3.5%
$183,041 वॉल्यूम
36%
3.75%
$496,634 वॉल्यूम
30%
4.0%
$1,345,239 वॉल्यूम
6%
4.25%
$406,531 वॉल्यूम
1%
≥ 4.5%
$2,389,304 वॉल्यूम
3%
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).Polymarket traders, wagering real capital, price a year-end 2026 federal funds rate near current levels at 3.5% (35.5% implied probability) or 3.75% (30.2%), reflecting closely contested sentiment amid resilient economic data. March 2026 CPI surged to 3.3% annually—the highest since May 2024—fueled by energy shocks from the Iran conflict, while nonfarm payrolls added 178,000 jobs against expectations of 59,000, edging unemployment to 4.3%. These prints align with the FOMC's March dot plot median of 3.4%, tempering rate-cut bets versus prior easing paths. Key differentiators include sticky core inflation and labor strength; upcoming April CPI (May 12 release) and May FOMC could sway the balance toward modest adjustment or steady policy.
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
बाज़ार खुला: Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$6,296,719समाप्ति तिथि
9 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).Polymarket traders, wagering real capital, price a year-end 2026 federal funds rate near current levels at 3.5% (35.5% implied probability) or 3.75% (30.2%), reflecting closely contested sentiment amid resilient economic data. March 2026 CPI surged to 3.3% annually—the highest since May 2024—fueled by energy shocks from the Iran conflict, while nonfarm payrolls added 178,000 jobs against expectations of 59,000, edging unemployment to 4.3%. These prints align with the FOMC's March dot plot median of 3.4%, tempering rate-cut bets versus prior easing paths. Key differentiators include sticky core inflation and labor strength; upcoming April CPI (May 12 release) and May FOMC could sway the balance toward modest adjustment or steady policy.
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
वॉल्यूम
$6,296,719समाप्ति तिथि
9 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders, wagering real capital, price a year-end 2026 federal funds rate near current levels at 3.5% (35.5% implied probability) or 3.75% (30.2%), reflecting closely contested sentiment amid resilient economic data. March 2026 CPI surged to 3.3% annually—the highest since May 2024—fueled by energy shocks from the Iran conflict, while nonfarm payrolls added 178,000 jobs against expectations of 59,000, edging unemployment to 4.3%. These prints align with the FOMC's March dot plot median of 3.4%, tempering rate-cut bets versus prior easing paths. Key differentiators include sticky core inflation and labor strength; upcoming April CPI (May 12 release) and May FOMC could sway the balance toward modest adjustment or steady policy.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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