Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 78.5% implied probability of no change in the federal funds target range at the July 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting resilient economic data that has dimmed near-term rate cut expectations. March 2026 CPI surged 0.9% month-over-month to 3.3% year-over-year—driven by energy costs amid the Iran conflict—while nonfarm payrolls added 178,000 jobs and unemployment held at 4.3%, signaling a firm labor market. The Fed's March hold at 3.50%-3.75% and upwardly revised inflation forecasts in the dot plot reinforce this positioning, with modest 9.5% odds for a 25 basis point cut and negligible hike risks. Upcoming April FOMC and May CPI data loom as key catalysts.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाकोई बदलाव नहीं 79%
25 बीपीएस की कमी 10%
25 बीपीएस वृद्धि 3.6%
50+ बीपीएस की कटौती 3.1%
$3,608,762 वॉल्यूम
$3,608,762 वॉल्यूम
29 जुल, 2026
50+ बीपीएस की कटौती
3%
25 बीपीएस की कमी
10%
कोई बदलाव नहीं
79%
25 बीपीएस वृद्धि
4%
50+ बेसिस प्वाइंट वृद्धि
1%
कोई बदलाव नहीं 79%
25 बीपीएस की कमी 10%
25 बीपीएस वृद्धि 3.6%
50+ बीपीएस की कटौती 3.1%
$3,608,762 वॉल्यूम
$3,608,762 वॉल्यूम
29 जुल, 2026
50+ बीपीएस की कटौती
$159,458 वॉल्यूम
3%
25 बीपीएस की कमी
$109,193 वॉल्यूम
10%
कोई बदलाव नहीं
$161,813 वॉल्यूम
79%
25 बीपीएस वृद्धि
$3,011,406 वॉल्यूम
4%
50+ बेसिस प्वाइंट वृद्धि
$166,991 वॉल्यूम
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 78.5% implied probability of no change in the federal funds target range at the July 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting resilient economic data that has dimmed near-term rate cut expectations. March 2026 CPI surged 0.9% month-over-month to 3.3% year-over-year—driven by energy costs amid the Iran conflict—while nonfarm payrolls added 178,000 jobs and unemployment held at 4.3%, signaling a firm labor market. The Fed's March hold at 3.50%-3.75% and upwardly revised inflation forecasts in the dot plot reinforce this positioning, with modest 9.5% odds for a 25 basis point cut and negligible hike risks. Upcoming April FOMC and May CPI data loom as key catalysts.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
बाज़ार खुला: Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$3,608,762समाप्ति तिथि
29 जुल, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 78.5% implied probability of no change in the federal funds target range at the July 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting resilient economic data that has dimmed near-term rate cut expectations. March 2026 CPI surged 0.9% month-over-month to 3.3% year-over-year—driven by energy costs amid the Iran conflict—while nonfarm payrolls added 178,000 jobs and unemployment held at 4.3%, signaling a firm labor market. The Fed's March hold at 3.50%-3.75% and upwardly revised inflation forecasts in the dot plot reinforce this positioning, with modest 9.5% odds for a 25 basis point cut and negligible hike risks. Upcoming April FOMC and May CPI data loom as key catalysts.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
वॉल्यूम
$3,608,762समाप्ति तिथि
29 जुल, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 78.5% implied probability of no change in the federal funds target range at the July 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting resilient economic data that has dimmed near-term rate cut expectations. March 2026 CPI surged 0.9% month-over-month to 3.3% year-over-year—driven by energy costs amid the Iran conflict—while nonfarm payrolls added 178,000 jobs and unemployment held at 4.3%, signaling a firm labor market. The Fed's March hold at 3.50%-3.75% and upwardly revised inflation forecasts in the dot plot reinforce this positioning, with modest 9.5% odds for a 25 basis point cut and negligible hike risks. Upcoming April FOMC and May CPI data loom as key catalysts.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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