Elevated May 2026 CPI data showing 4.2% year-over-year headline inflation—the highest in three years—driven by energy shocks and resilient core readings near 2.9%, combined with strong nonfarm payrolls and unemployment around 4.3%, have anchored trader consensus around no change at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting. With the federal funds rate already steady at 3.50%-3.75% all year amid a “higher for longer” stance from incoming communications, the 93.5% implied probability for unchanged policy reflects skin-in-the-game positioning that further easing remains unlikely until inflation trajectories improve. A sharp downside surprise in June CPI or labor-market softening ahead of the meeting could still introduce modest volatility in those odds.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाकोई बदलाव नहीं 94%
50+ बीपीएस की कटौती 2.3%
25 बीपीएस वृद्धि 2.3%
25 बीपीएस की कमी 2.1%
$10,060,805 वॉल्यूम
$10,060,805 वॉल्यूम
29 जुल, 2026
50+ बीपीएस की कटौती
2%
25 बीपीएस की कमी
2%
कोई बदलाव नहीं
94%
25 बीपीएस वृद्धि
2%
50+ बेसिस प्वाइंट वृद्धि
<1%
कोई बदलाव नहीं 94%
50+ बीपीएस की कटौती 2.3%
25 बीपीएस वृद्धि 2.3%
25 बीपीएस की कमी 2.1%
$10,060,805 वॉल्यूम
$10,060,805 वॉल्यूम
29 जुल, 2026
50+ बीपीएस की कटौती
$1,504,276 वॉल्यूम
2%
25 बीपीएस की कमी
$1,122,428 वॉल्यूम
2%
कोई बदलाव नहीं
$1,697,834 वॉल्यूम
94%
25 बीपीएस वृद्धि
$4,153,254 वॉल्यूम
2%
50+ बेसिस प्वाइंट वृद्धि
$1,584,599 वॉल्यूम
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Elevated May 2026 CPI data showing 4.2% year-over-year headline inflation—the highest in three years—driven by energy shocks and resilient core readings near 2.9%, combined with strong nonfarm payrolls and unemployment around 4.3%, have anchored trader consensus around no change at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting. With the federal funds rate already steady at 3.50%-3.75% all year amid a “higher for longer” stance from incoming communications, the 93.5% implied probability for unchanged policy reflects skin-in-the-game positioning that further easing remains unlikely until inflation trajectories improve. A sharp downside surprise in June CPI or labor-market softening ahead of the meeting could still introduce modest volatility in those odds.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
बाज़ार खुला: Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$10,060,805समाप्ति तिथि
29 जुल, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Elevated May 2026 CPI data showing 4.2% year-over-year headline inflation—the highest in three years—driven by energy shocks and resilient core readings near 2.9%, combined with strong nonfarm payrolls and unemployment around 4.3%, have anchored trader consensus around no change at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting. With the federal funds rate already steady at 3.50%-3.75% all year amid a “higher for longer” stance from incoming communications, the 93.5% implied probability for unchanged policy reflects skin-in-the-game positioning that further easing remains unlikely until inflation trajectories improve. A sharp downside surprise in June CPI or labor-market softening ahead of the meeting could still introduce modest volatility in those odds.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
वॉल्यूम
$10,060,805समाप्ति तिथि
29 जुल, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elevated May 2026 CPI data showing 4.2% year-over-year headline inflation—the highest in three years—driven by energy shocks and resilient core readings near 2.9%, combined with strong nonfarm payrolls and unemployment around 4.3%, have anchored trader consensus around no change at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting. With the federal funds rate already steady at 3.50%-3.75% all year amid a “higher for longer” stance from incoming communications, the 93.5% implied probability for unchanged policy reflects skin-in-the-game positioning that further easing remains unlikely until inflation trajectories improve. A sharp downside surprise in June CPI or labor-market softening ahead of the meeting could still introduce modest volatility in those odds.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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