Recent May CPI data showing a 4.2% annual rise—its highest since 2023 and fueled by energy prices up 23.5%—combined with the June FOMC’s hawkish dot plot revision to a 3.8% median federal funds rate by year-end, have anchored trader expectations for no change at the July 28-29 meeting. With the policy rate steady at 3.50-3.75% following Chair Kevin Warsh’s first gathering, market-implied odds reflect firm labor market conditions and upside inflation risks that outweigh calls for immediate easing. The 76.5% probability of holding rates steady contrasts with the 20.6% chance of a 25 basis point hike, as participants await the July 14 CPI release and any fresh signals on monetary policy trajectory before the next decision.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाकोई बदलाव नहीं 77%
25 बीपीएस वृद्धि 18.4%
25 बीपीएस की कमी 2.1%
50+ बेसिस प्वाइंट वृद्धि 1.4%
$11,623,903 वॉल्यूम
$11,623,903 वॉल्यूम
29 जुल, 2026
50+ बीपीएस की कटौती
1%
25 बीपीएस की कमी
2%
कोई बदलाव नहीं
77%
25 बीपीएस वृद्धि
18%
50+ बेसिस प्वाइंट वृद्धि
1%
कोई बदलाव नहीं 77%
25 बीपीएस वृद्धि 18.4%
25 बीपीएस की कमी 2.1%
50+ बेसिस प्वाइंट वृद्धि 1.4%
$11,623,903 वॉल्यूम
$11,623,903 वॉल्यूम
29 जुल, 2026
50+ बीपीएस की कटौती
$1,650,567 वॉल्यूम
1%
25 बीपीएस की कमी
$1,376,538 वॉल्यूम
2%
कोई बदलाव नहीं
$2,143,337 वॉल्यूम
77%
25 बीपीएस वृद्धि
$4,438,794 वॉल्यूम
18%
50+ बेसिस प्वाइंट वृद्धि
$2,016,353 वॉल्यूम
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent May CPI data showing a 4.2% annual rise—its highest since 2023 and fueled by energy prices up 23.5%—combined with the June FOMC’s hawkish dot plot revision to a 3.8% median federal funds rate by year-end, have anchored trader expectations for no change at the July 28-29 meeting. With the policy rate steady at 3.50-3.75% following Chair Kevin Warsh’s first gathering, market-implied odds reflect firm labor market conditions and upside inflation risks that outweigh calls for immediate easing. The 76.5% probability of holding rates steady contrasts with the 20.6% chance of a 25 basis point hike, as participants await the July 14 CPI release and any fresh signals on monetary policy trajectory before the next decision.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
बाज़ार खुला: Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$11,623,903समाप्ति तिथि
29 जुल, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent May CPI data showing a 4.2% annual rise—its highest since 2023 and fueled by energy prices up 23.5%—combined with the June FOMC’s hawkish dot plot revision to a 3.8% median federal funds rate by year-end, have anchored trader expectations for no change at the July 28-29 meeting. With the policy rate steady at 3.50-3.75% following Chair Kevin Warsh’s first gathering, market-implied odds reflect firm labor market conditions and upside inflation risks that outweigh calls for immediate easing. The 76.5% probability of holding rates steady contrasts with the 20.6% chance of a 25 basis point hike, as participants await the July 14 CPI release and any fresh signals on monetary policy trajectory before the next decision.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
वॉल्यूम
$11,623,903समाप्ति तिथि
29 जुल, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent May CPI data showing a 4.2% annual rise—its highest since 2023 and fueled by energy prices up 23.5%—combined with the June FOMC’s hawkish dot plot revision to a 3.8% median federal funds rate by year-end, have anchored trader expectations for no change at the July 28-29 meeting. With the policy rate steady at 3.50-3.75% following Chair Kevin Warsh’s first gathering, market-implied odds reflect firm labor market conditions and upside inflation risks that outweigh calls for immediate easing. The 76.5% probability of holding rates steady contrasts with the 20.6% chance of a 25 basis point hike, as participants await the July 14 CPI release and any fresh signals on monetary policy trajectory before the next decision.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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