Recent May 2026 CPI data showing a 4.2% year-over-year increase—the highest since 2023—combined with resilient May employment gains of 172,000 and a steady 4.3% unemployment rate, have reinforced trader expectations that the Federal Reserve will hold the federal funds rate steady in the 3.50%-3.75% target range at its July 28-29 FOMC meeting. With inflation well above the 2% objective and the labor market showing no signs of meaningful softening, market-implied odds reflect a strong consensus for no policy change, consistent with the Fed’s April decision and recent minutes signaling limited near-term adjustments. This positioning aligns with forward-looking indicators pointing to a prolonged pause through year-end. The primary risk to this view would be substantially softer June CPI or employment figures released in early July that shift the inflation or growth trajectory.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाकोई बदलाव नहीं 94%
25 बीपीएस वृद्धि 2.9%
25 बीपीएस की कमी 2.7%
50+ बीपीएस की कटौती 1.7%
$10,075,213 वॉल्यूम
$10,075,213 वॉल्यूम
29 जुल, 2026
50+ बीपीएस की कटौती
2%
25 बीपीएस की कमी
3%
कोई बदलाव नहीं
94%
25 बीपीएस वृद्धि
3%
50+ बेसिस प्वाइंट वृद्धि
<1%
कोई बदलाव नहीं 94%
25 बीपीएस वृद्धि 2.9%
25 बीपीएस की कमी 2.7%
50+ बीपीएस की कटौती 1.7%
$10,075,213 वॉल्यूम
$10,075,213 वॉल्यूम
29 जुल, 2026
50+ बीपीएस की कटौती
$1,504,716 वॉल्यूम
2%
25 बीपीएस की कमी
$1,128,944 वॉल्यूम
3%
कोई बदलाव नहीं
$1,698,744 वॉल्यूम
94%
25 बीपीएस वृद्धि
$4,161,611 वॉल्यूम
3%
50+ बेसिस प्वाइंट वृद्धि
$1,585,026 वॉल्यूम
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent May 2026 CPI data showing a 4.2% year-over-year increase—the highest since 2023—combined with resilient May employment gains of 172,000 and a steady 4.3% unemployment rate, have reinforced trader expectations that the Federal Reserve will hold the federal funds rate steady in the 3.50%-3.75% target range at its July 28-29 FOMC meeting. With inflation well above the 2% objective and the labor market showing no signs of meaningful softening, market-implied odds reflect a strong consensus for no policy change, consistent with the Fed’s April decision and recent minutes signaling limited near-term adjustments. This positioning aligns with forward-looking indicators pointing to a prolonged pause through year-end. The primary risk to this view would be substantially softer June CPI or employment figures released in early July that shift the inflation or growth trajectory.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
बाज़ार खुला: Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$10,075,213समाप्ति तिथि
29 जुल, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent May 2026 CPI data showing a 4.2% year-over-year increase—the highest since 2023—combined with resilient May employment gains of 172,000 and a steady 4.3% unemployment rate, have reinforced trader expectations that the Federal Reserve will hold the federal funds rate steady in the 3.50%-3.75% target range at its July 28-29 FOMC meeting. With inflation well above the 2% objective and the labor market showing no signs of meaningful softening, market-implied odds reflect a strong consensus for no policy change, consistent with the Fed’s April decision and recent minutes signaling limited near-term adjustments. This positioning aligns with forward-looking indicators pointing to a prolonged pause through year-end. The primary risk to this view would be substantially softer June CPI or employment figures released in early July that shift the inflation or growth trajectory.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
वॉल्यूम
$10,075,213समाप्ति तिथि
29 जुल, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent May 2026 CPI data showing a 4.2% year-over-year increase—the highest since 2023—combined with resilient May employment gains of 172,000 and a steady 4.3% unemployment rate, have reinforced trader expectations that the Federal Reserve will hold the federal funds rate steady in the 3.50%-3.75% target range at its July 28-29 FOMC meeting. With inflation well above the 2% objective and the labor market showing no signs of meaningful softening, market-implied odds reflect a strong consensus for no policy change, consistent with the Fed’s April decision and recent minutes signaling limited near-term adjustments. This positioning aligns with forward-looking indicators pointing to a prolonged pause through year-end. The primary risk to this view would be substantially softer June CPI or employment figures released in early July that shift the inflation or growth trajectory.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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