Recent April 2026 CPI data showing a 3.8% year-over-year rise—driven primarily by a 17.9% jump in energy prices amid Middle East tensions—has shifted trader focus from anticipated rate cuts toward the possibility of a Fed hike. With the federal funds rate holding at the 3.50%-3.75% target range following the April FOMC meeting, officials including Vice Chair Bowman have signaled openness to tightening if inflation risks persist and expectations unanchor. Resilient labor conditions and limited core disinflation progress reinforce this stance, while futures markets now price a roughly 30% probability of a 25 basis point increase by early 2027. The June 16-17 FOMC meeting and May CPI release represent key near-term catalysts that could further adjust market-implied odds.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया$154,138 वॉल्यूम
9 दिस, 2026
जून बैठक
1%
जुलाई बैठक
6%
सितंबर बैठक
12%
अक्टूबर बैठक
25%
$154,138 वॉल्यूम
जून बैठक
$15,781 वॉल्यूम
1%
जुलाई बैठक
$1,768 वॉल्यूम
6%
सितंबर बैठक
$2,737 वॉल्यूम
12%
अक्टूबर बैठक
$2,545 वॉल्यूम
25%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent April 2026 CPI data showing a 3.8% year-over-year rise—driven primarily by a 17.9% jump in energy prices amid Middle East tensions—has shifted trader focus from anticipated rate cuts toward the possibility of a Fed hike. With the federal funds rate holding at the 3.50%-3.75% target range following the April FOMC meeting, officials including Vice Chair Bowman have signaled openness to tightening if inflation risks persist and expectations unanchor. Resilient labor conditions and limited core disinflation progress reinforce this stance, while futures markets now price a roughly 30% probability of a 25 basis point increase by early 2027. The June 16-17 FOMC meeting and May CPI release represent key near-term catalysts that could further adjust market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
बाज़ार खुला: Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$154,138समाप्ति तिथि
29 अक्टू, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent April 2026 CPI data showing a 3.8% year-over-year rise—driven primarily by a 17.9% jump in energy prices amid Middle East tensions—has shifted trader focus from anticipated rate cuts toward the possibility of a Fed hike. With the federal funds rate holding at the 3.50%-3.75% target range following the April FOMC meeting, officials including Vice Chair Bowman have signaled openness to tightening if inflation risks persist and expectations unanchor. Resilient labor conditions and limited core disinflation progress reinforce this stance, while futures markets now price a roughly 30% probability of a 25 basis point increase by early 2027. The June 16-17 FOMC meeting and May CPI release represent key near-term catalysts that could further adjust market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
वॉल्यूम
$154,138समाप्ति तिथि
29 अक्टू, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent April 2026 CPI data showing a 3.8% year-over-year rise—driven primarily by a 17.9% jump in energy prices amid Middle East tensions—has shifted trader focus from anticipated rate cuts toward the possibility of a Fed hike. With the federal funds rate holding at the 3.50%-3.75% target range following the April FOMC meeting, officials including Vice Chair Bowman have signaled openness to tightening if inflation risks persist and expectations unanchor. Resilient labor conditions and limited core disinflation progress reinforce this stance, while futures markets now price a roughly 30% probability of a 25 basis point increase by early 2027. The June 16-17 FOMC meeting and May CPI release represent key near-term catalysts that could further adjust market-implied odds.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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