Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 85.5% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, anchored by the FOMC's March 18 dot plot projecting a median federal funds rate of 3.4% by year-end—down slightly from the current 3.5%-3.75% target range—reflecting expectations of gradual easing amid resilient growth and cooling core inflation. Recent March CPI data, released April 10, showed headline inflation accelerating to 3.3% year-over-year due to an oil price surge from the Iran conflict, prompting some officials in April 8 minutes to voice openness to hikes; however, CME Fed funds futures imply average rates near 3.6% mid-year, signaling limited upside risk. Key catalysts ahead include the April 28-29 FOMC meeting and May 12 April CPI release.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाहाँ
$887,710 वॉल्यूम
$887,710 वॉल्यूम
9 दिस, 2026
हाँ
$887,710 वॉल्यूम
$887,710 वॉल्यूम
9 दिस, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 85.5% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, anchored by the FOMC's March 18 dot plot projecting a median federal funds rate of 3.4% by year-end—down slightly from the current 3.5%-3.75% target range—reflecting expectations of gradual easing amid resilient growth and cooling core inflation. Recent March CPI data, released April 10, showed headline inflation accelerating to 3.3% year-over-year due to an oil price surge from the Iran conflict, prompting some officials in April 8 minutes to voice openness to hikes; however, CME Fed funds futures imply average rates near 3.6% mid-year, signaling limited upside risk. Key catalysts ahead include the April 28-29 FOMC meeting and May 12 April CPI release.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
बाज़ार खुला: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$887,710समाप्ति तिथि
9 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 85.5% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, anchored by the FOMC's March 18 dot plot projecting a median federal funds rate of 3.4% by year-end—down slightly from the current 3.5%-3.75% target range—reflecting expectations of gradual easing amid resilient growth and cooling core inflation. Recent March CPI data, released April 10, showed headline inflation accelerating to 3.3% year-over-year due to an oil price surge from the Iran conflict, prompting some officials in April 8 minutes to voice openness to hikes; however, CME Fed funds futures imply average rates near 3.6% mid-year, signaling limited upside risk. Key catalysts ahead include the April 28-29 FOMC meeting and May 12 April CPI release.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
वॉल्यूम
$887,726समाप्ति तिथि
9 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 85.5% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, anchored by the FOMC's March 18 dot plot projecting a median federal funds rate of 3.4% by year-end—down slightly from the current 3.5%-3.75% target range—reflecting expectations of gradual easing amid resilient growth and cooling core inflation. Recent March CPI data, released April 10, showed headline inflation accelerating to 3.3% year-over-year due to an oil price surge from the Iran conflict, prompting some officials in April 8 minutes to voice openness to hikes; however, CME Fed funds futures imply average rates near 3.6% mid-year, signaling limited upside risk. Key catalysts ahead include the April 28-29 FOMC meeting and May 12 April CPI release.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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