The closure of the Department of Justice criminal investigation into Jerome Powell's handling of Federal Reserve headquarters renovations on April 24, 2026, without charges underpins the 98.3% market-implied probability that he avoids jail before 2027. Traders price in the absence of any ongoing federal probes, congressional referrals, or inspector general findings that could trigger indictments, reinforced by Powell's transition to a board role after his chair term ended in May. With no new prosecutorial activity reported since the probe's referral to internal review, real-money consensus reflects the low base rate for such outcomes against senior central bankers absent extraordinary evidence. Tail risks remain narrow, limited to unforeseen developments such as revived allegations or unrelated matters surfacing before year-end 2026.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया2% संभावना
नया
नया
31 दिस, 2026
2% संभावना
नया
नया
31 दिस, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The closure of the Department of Justice criminal investigation into Jerome Powell's handling of Federal Reserve headquarters renovations on April 24, 2026, without charges underpins the 98.3% market-implied probability that he avoids jail before 2027. Traders price in the absence of any ongoing federal probes, congressional referrals, or inspector general findings that could trigger indictments, reinforced by Powell's transition to a board role after his chair term ended in May. With no new prosecutorial activity reported since the probe's referral to internal review, real-money consensus reflects the low base rate for such outcomes against senior central bankers absent extraordinary evidence. Tail risks remain narrow, limited to unforeseen developments such as revived allegations or unrelated matters surfacing before year-end 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
बाज़ार खुला: Jan 12, 2026, 11:43 AM ET
वॉल्यूम
$5,637समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 12, 2026, 11:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The closure of the Department of Justice criminal investigation into Jerome Powell's handling of Federal Reserve headquarters renovations on April 24, 2026, without charges underpins the 98.3% market-implied probability that he avoids jail before 2027. Traders price in the absence of any ongoing federal probes, congressional referrals, or inspector general findings that could trigger indictments, reinforced by Powell's transition to a board role after his chair term ended in May. With no new prosecutorial activity reported since the probe's referral to internal review, real-money consensus reflects the low base rate for such outcomes against senior central bankers absent extraordinary evidence. Tail risks remain narrow, limited to unforeseen developments such as revived allegations or unrelated matters surfacing before year-end 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
वॉल्यूम
$5,637समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 12, 2026, 11:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The closure of the Department of Justice criminal investigation into Jerome Powell's handling of Federal Reserve headquarters renovations on April 24, 2026, without charges underpins the 98.3% market-implied probability that he avoids jail before 2027. Traders price in the absence of any ongoing federal probes, congressional referrals, or inspector general findings that could trigger indictments, reinforced by Powell's transition to a board role after his chair term ended in May. With no new prosecutorial activity reported since the probe's referral to internal review, real-money consensus reflects the low base rate for such outcomes against senior central bankers absent extraordinary evidence. Tail risks remain narrow, limited to unforeseen developments such as revived allegations or unrelated matters surfacing before year-end 2026.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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