Trader consensus heavily favors no federal charges against Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell by June 30, reflecting judicial roadblocks hobbling the DOJ's ongoing criminal probe into his June 2025 congressional testimony on headquarters renovation costs. A federal judge quashed key grand jury subpoenas on March 13, with the DOJ appealing but facing criticism for lacking specific evidence of misconduct, as noted in recent April 15 reports on U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro's stalled efforts, including unannounced visits to Fed headquarters. Despite President Trump's renewed threats to fire Powell post-chair term expiration on May 15, no indictment has materialized after four months, underscoring perceived political motivations over prosecutorial merit. Odds could shift via successful appeal yielding new evidence or grand jury action before deadline.