Persistent inflation pressures, highlighted by April 2026 CPI rising to 3.8% year-over-year amid energy price spikes, combined with a resilient labor market showing unemployment near 4.3%, have kept the federal funds target range anchored at 3.50%-3.75% since January. Futures markets and trader positioning reflect near-certain expectations of no change at the June 16-17 FOMC meeting, where updated economic projections and the dot plot will provide fresh signals on the policy path. Subsequent meetings through year-end offer limited scope for easing under current data trends, with any shift dependent on clearer disinflation or labor market softening.