Persistent inflation above the Fed's 2% target for over five years, alongside recent stronger-than-expected CPI readings, has anchored trader sentiment toward tighter policy for the July–October 2026 meetings. The July decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% featured three dissents favoring a hike, while markets now price an 87% probability of a 25-basis-point increase at the September 15–16 FOMC meeting amid elevated energy prices and resilient labor data. This dynamic elevates "Other" sequences at 84.5% implied probability, as they encompass paths with hikes rather than the pause- or cut-only combinations listed. Hawkish communications from Chair Kevin Warsh and moderating but still above-target price pressures reinforce expectations that any easing remains distant, with the October meeting adding further uncertainty before year-end.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाOther 85%
Pause–Pause–Pause 13%
Pause–Pause–Cut 1.8%
Pause–Cut–Cut 1.0%
$761,082 वॉल्यूम
$761,082 वॉल्यूम
28 अक्टू, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
13%
Pause–Pause–Cut
2%
Pause–Cut–Pause
<1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
1%
Other
85%
Other 85%
Pause–Pause–Pause 13%
Pause–Pause–Cut 1.8%
Pause–Cut–Cut 1.0%
$761,082 वॉल्यूम
$761,082 वॉल्यूम
28 अक्टू, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$256,363 वॉल्यूम
13%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$64,078 वॉल्यूम
2%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$43,698 वॉल्यूम
<1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$29,422 वॉल्यूम
1%
Other
$324,033 वॉल्यूम
85%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPersistent inflation above the Fed's 2% target for over five years, alongside recent stronger-than-expected CPI readings, has anchored trader sentiment toward tighter policy for the July–October 2026 meetings. The July decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% featured three dissents favoring a hike, while markets now price an 87% probability of a 25-basis-point increase at the September 15–16 FOMC meeting amid elevated energy prices and resilient labor data. This dynamic elevates "Other" sequences at 84.5% implied probability, as they encompass paths with hikes rather than the pause- or cut-only combinations listed. Hawkish communications from Chair Kevin Warsh and moderating but still above-target price pressures reinforce expectations that any easing remains distant, with the October meeting adding further uncertainty before year-end.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
बाज़ार खुला: Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$761,082समाप्ति तिथि
28 अक्टू, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPersistent inflation above the Fed's 2% target for over five years, alongside recent stronger-than-expected CPI readings, has anchored trader sentiment toward tighter policy for the July–October 2026 meetings. The July decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% featured three dissents favoring a hike, while markets now price an 87% probability of a 25-basis-point increase at the September 15–16 FOMC meeting amid elevated energy prices and resilient labor data. This dynamic elevates "Other" sequences at 84.5% implied probability, as they encompass paths with hikes rather than the pause- or cut-only combinations listed. Hawkish communications from Chair Kevin Warsh and moderating but still above-target price pressures reinforce expectations that any easing remains distant, with the October meeting adding further uncertainty before year-end.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
वॉल्यूम
$761,082समाप्ति तिथि
28 अक्टू, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x69c47De9D...Persistent inflation above the Fed's 2% target for over five years, alongside recent stronger-than-expected CPI readings, has anchored trader sentiment toward tighter policy for the July–October 2026 meetings. The July decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% featured three dissents favoring a hike, while markets now price an 87% probability of a 25-basis-point increase at the September 15–16 FOMC meeting amid elevated energy prices and resilient labor data. This dynamic elevates "Other" sequences at 84.5% implied probability, as they encompass paths with hikes rather than the pause- or cut-only combinations listed. Hawkish communications from Chair Kevin Warsh and moderating but still above-target price pressures reinforce expectations that any easing remains distant, with the October meeting adding further uncertainty before year-end.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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