**Elevated inflation pressures and a resilient labor market have anchored trader expectations for steady policy through the June, July, and September 2026 FOMC meetings, supporting the 70.5% market-implied probability of a Pause–Pause–Pause sequence.** The May 2026 CPI print of 4.2% year-over-year—up from 3.8% in April and the highest since 2023—reflected a sharp energy component surge tied to Middle East supply disruptions, with headline PCE also running near 3.8%. Core measures remained above the Fed’s 2% target, prompting the FOMC to raise its 2026 inflation projections materially at the June meeting while keeping the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75%. Strong May employment data (+172k payrolls, 4.3% unemployment) further reduced the case for near-term easing. With the first meeting under new Chair Kevin Warsh featuring updated dots showing multiple officials open to hikes this year, futures and surveys now price limited scope for cuts before year-end. This environment leaves only modest probability on sequences involving July or September cuts, as any pivot would require clear evidence of cooling price pressures and labor-market softening that has yet to materialize.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाPause–Pause–Pause 59%
Other 20%
Pause–Cut–Pause 4.7%
Pause–Cut–Cut 2.5%
$10,217 वॉल्यूम
$10,217 वॉल्यूम
16 सित, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
59%
Pause–Pause–Cut
2%
Pause–Cut–Pause
5%
Pause–Cut–Cut
3%
Other
20%
Pause–Pause–Pause 59%
Other 20%
Pause–Cut–Pause 4.7%
Pause–Cut–Cut 2.5%
$10,217 वॉल्यूम
$10,217 वॉल्यूम
16 सित, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$1,278 वॉल्यूम
59%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$431 वॉल्यूम
2%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$230 वॉल्यूम
5%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$276 वॉल्यूम
3%
Other
$352 वॉल्यूम
20%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm**Elevated inflation pressures and a resilient labor market have anchored trader expectations for steady policy through the June, July, and September 2026 FOMC meetings, supporting the 70.5% market-implied probability of a Pause–Pause–Pause sequence.**
The May 2026 CPI print of 4.2% year-over-year—up from 3.8% in April and the highest since 2023—reflected a sharp energy component surge tied to Middle East supply disruptions, with headline PCE also running near 3.8%. Core measures remained above the Fed’s 2% target, prompting the FOMC to raise its 2026 inflation projections materially at the June meeting while keeping the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75%. Strong May employment data (+172k payrolls, 4.3% unemployment) further reduced the case for near-term easing.
With the first meeting under new Chair Kevin Warsh featuring updated dots showing multiple officials open to hikes this year, futures and surveys now price limited scope for cuts before year-end. This environment leaves only modest probability on sequences involving July or September cuts, as any pivot would require clear evidence of cooling price pressures and labor-market softening that has yet to materialize.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
बाज़ार खुला: Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$10,217समाप्ति तिथि
16 सित, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm**Elevated inflation pressures and a resilient labor market have anchored trader expectations for steady policy through the June, July, and September 2026 FOMC meetings, supporting the 70.5% market-implied probability of a Pause–Pause–Pause sequence.**
The May 2026 CPI print of 4.2% year-over-year—up from 3.8% in April and the highest since 2023—reflected a sharp energy component surge tied to Middle East supply disruptions, with headline PCE also running near 3.8%. Core measures remained above the Fed’s 2% target, prompting the FOMC to raise its 2026 inflation projections materially at the June meeting while keeping the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75%. Strong May employment data (+172k payrolls, 4.3% unemployment) further reduced the case for near-term easing.
With the first meeting under new Chair Kevin Warsh featuring updated dots showing multiple officials open to hikes this year, futures and surveys now price limited scope for cuts before year-end. This environment leaves only modest probability on sequences involving July or September cuts, as any pivot would require clear evidence of cooling price pressures and labor-market softening that has yet to materialize.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
वॉल्यूम
$10,217समाप्ति तिथि
16 सित, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Elevated inflation pressures and a resilient labor market have anchored trader expectations for steady policy through the June, July, and September 2026 FOMC meetings, supporting the 70.5% market-implied probability of a Pause–Pause–Pause sequence.** The May 2026 CPI print of 4.2% year-over-year—up from 3.8% in April and the highest since 2023—reflected a sharp energy component surge tied to Middle East supply disruptions, with headline PCE also running near 3.8%. Core measures remained above the Fed’s 2% target, prompting the FOMC to raise its 2026 inflation projections materially at the June meeting while keeping the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75%. Strong May employment data (+172k payrolls, 4.3% unemployment) further reduced the case for near-term easing. With the first meeting under new Chair Kevin Warsh featuring updated dots showing multiple officials open to hikes this year, futures and surveys now price limited scope for cuts before year-end. This environment leaves only modest probability on sequences involving July or September cuts, as any pivot would require clear evidence of cooling price pressures and labor-market softening that has yet to materialize.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
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