Recent August 2026 CPI data showing a 0.4% monthly rise and 3.4% year-over-year headline inflation, fueled by gasoline prices, alongside resilient August payrolls of 162,000 and 4.1% unemployment, has positioned a 25 basis point federal funds rate increase as the leading outcome at the December 2026 FOMC meeting with 55.5% market-implied odds. Traders interpret the resilient labor market and sticky core inflation at 2.4% year-over-year as supporting further policy tightening from the current 3.50%-3.75% target range. The 39.5% probability of no change reflects uncertainty ahead of the September FOMC decision and upcoming inflation releases, while probabilities for larger moves or cuts remain low given anchored expectations and limited downside risks in recent data.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया25 bps increase 56%
कोई बदलाव नहीं 40%
50+ bps increase 4.0%
25 bps decrease 3.4%
$687,464 वॉल्यूम
$687,464 वॉल्यूम
9 दिस, 2026
50+ bps decrease
1%
25 bps decrease
3%
कोई बदलाव नहीं
40%
25 bps increase
56%
50+ bps increase
4%
25 bps increase 56%
कोई बदलाव नहीं 40%
50+ bps increase 4.0%
25 bps decrease 3.4%
$687,464 वॉल्यूम
$687,464 वॉल्यूम
9 दिस, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$102,808 वॉल्यूम
1%
25 bps decrease
$155,944 वॉल्यूम
3%
कोई बदलाव नहीं
$136,748 वॉल्यूम
40%
25 bps increase
$187,162 वॉल्यूम
56%
50+ bps increase
$104,802 वॉल्यूम
4%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent August 2026 CPI data showing a 0.4% monthly rise and 3.4% year-over-year headline inflation, fueled by gasoline prices, alongside resilient August payrolls of 162,000 and 4.1% unemployment, has positioned a 25 basis point federal funds rate increase as the leading outcome at the December 2026 FOMC meeting with 55.5% market-implied odds. Traders interpret the resilient labor market and sticky core inflation at 2.4% year-over-year as supporting further policy tightening from the current 3.50%-3.75% target range. The 39.5% probability of no change reflects uncertainty ahead of the September FOMC decision and upcoming inflation releases, while probabilities for larger moves or cuts remain low given anchored expectations and limited downside risks in recent data.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
बाज़ार खुला: Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$687,464समाप्ति तिथि
9 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent August 2026 CPI data showing a 0.4% monthly rise and 3.4% year-over-year headline inflation, fueled by gasoline prices, alongside resilient August payrolls of 162,000 and 4.1% unemployment, has positioned a 25 basis point federal funds rate increase as the leading outcome at the December 2026 FOMC meeting with 55.5% market-implied odds. Traders interpret the resilient labor market and sticky core inflation at 2.4% year-over-year as supporting further policy tightening from the current 3.50%-3.75% target range. The 39.5% probability of no change reflects uncertainty ahead of the September FOMC decision and upcoming inflation releases, while probabilities for larger moves or cuts remain low given anchored expectations and limited downside risks in recent data.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
वॉल्यूम
$687,464समाप्ति तिथि
9 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x69c47De9D...Recent August 2026 CPI data showing a 0.4% monthly rise and 3.4% year-over-year headline inflation, fueled by gasoline prices, alongside resilient August payrolls of 162,000 and 4.1% unemployment, has positioned a 25 basis point federal funds rate increase as the leading outcome at the December 2026 FOMC meeting with 55.5% market-implied odds. Traders interpret the resilient labor market and sticky core inflation at 2.4% year-over-year as supporting further policy tightening from the current 3.50%-3.75% target range. The 39.5% probability of no change reflects uncertainty ahead of the September FOMC decision and upcoming inflation releases, while probabilities for larger moves or cuts remain low given anchored expectations and limited downside risks in recent data.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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