Recent inflation data tied to elevated energy prices has tilted trader sentiment toward a modest December 2026 rate hike, with the 25 basis point increase outcome holding a slim edge in implied probability over no change. The Federal Reserve has maintained the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75 percent since early 2026, but July communications and the latest dot plot revealed a divided committee, with roughly half of participants projecting at least one 2026 tightening amid resilient economic growth and reaccelerating price pressures. Market-implied paths now price roughly 30 basis points of additional tightening by year-end, though persistent uncertainty over geopolitical oil shocks and upcoming September and December data releases continues to keep the two leading outcomes closely contested.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया25 bps increase 57%
कोई बदलाव नहीं 54%
50+ bps increase 16%
25 bps decrease 11%
नया
नया
9 दिस, 2026
50+ bps decrease
7%
25 bps decrease
11%
कोई बदलाव नहीं
54%
25 bps increase
57%
50+ bps increase
16%
25 bps increase 57%
कोई बदलाव नहीं 54%
50+ bps increase 16%
25 bps decrease 11%
नया
नया
9 दिस, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$0 वॉल्यूम
7%
25 bps decrease
$0 वॉल्यूम
11%
कोई बदलाव नहीं
$1 वॉल्यूम
54%
25 bps increase
$0 वॉल्यूम
57%
50+ bps increase
$0 वॉल्यूम
16%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent inflation data tied to elevated energy prices has tilted trader sentiment toward a modest December 2026 rate hike, with the 25 basis point increase outcome holding a slim edge in implied probability over no change. The Federal Reserve has maintained the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75 percent since early 2026, but July communications and the latest dot plot revealed a divided committee, with roughly half of participants projecting at least one 2026 tightening amid resilient economic growth and reaccelerating price pressures. Market-implied paths now price roughly 30 basis points of additional tightening by year-end, though persistent uncertainty over geopolitical oil shocks and upcoming September and December data releases continues to keep the two leading outcomes closely contested.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
बाज़ार खुला: Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$1समाप्ति तिथि
9 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent inflation data tied to elevated energy prices has tilted trader sentiment toward a modest December 2026 rate hike, with the 25 basis point increase outcome holding a slim edge in implied probability over no change. The Federal Reserve has maintained the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75 percent since early 2026, but July communications and the latest dot plot revealed a divided committee, with roughly half of participants projecting at least one 2026 tightening amid resilient economic growth and reaccelerating price pressures. Market-implied paths now price roughly 30 basis points of additional tightening by year-end, though persistent uncertainty over geopolitical oil shocks and upcoming September and December data releases continues to keep the two leading outcomes closely contested.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
वॉल्यूम
$1समाप्ति तिथि
9 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent inflation data tied to elevated energy prices has tilted trader sentiment toward a modest December 2026 rate hike, with the 25 basis point increase outcome holding a slim edge in implied probability over no change. The Federal Reserve has maintained the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75 percent since early 2026, but July communications and the latest dot plot revealed a divided committee, with roughly half of participants projecting at least one 2026 tightening amid resilient economic growth and reaccelerating price pressures. Market-implied paths now price roughly 30 basis points of additional tightening by year-end, though persistent uncertainty over geopolitical oil shocks and upcoming September and December data releases continues to keep the two leading outcomes closely contested.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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