Extensive releases of millions of Epstein investigative files through early 2026 under the Epstein Files Transparency Act have produced no new U.S. indictments or arrests tied directly to the disclosures. The Justice Department has assessed that the materials lack credible, corroborative evidence extending criminal liability beyond Jeffrey Epstein and Ghislaine Maxwell, whose cases predated the recent document waves. Barriers including statutes of limitations, evidentiary gaps, and prior non-prosecution agreements have limited prosecutorial follow-through despite bipartisan congressional pressure. Traders assign over 96 percent probability to no qualifying U.S. incarceration by the December 31, 2026 resolution date. Late developments such as newly verified witness statements or successful appeals producing actionable leads could still shift outcomes before year-end.