Recent weather model consensus from sources including the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional indicates overnight lows near 11°C for Buenos Aires on September 1, driven by mild spring transition conditions with light easterly winds and limited radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies. This aligns closely with the historical September minimum average of 9°C while falling short of stronger cold-air intrusions expected later in the week. The closely matched market-implied odds across the 6–9°C range reflect residual uncertainty from ensemble forecast spread, potential variations in local urban heat island effects, and the precise timing of any frontal passage, even as probabilities for sub-6°C readings remain elevated due to historical precedent in late-winter transitions. Updated model runs and surface observations over the next 48 hours will provide the key data shifts for resolution.