Recent ensemble runs from the ECMWF and GFS models show notable spread in Milan’s minimum temperature for August 25, with solutions clustering between roughly 17–21 °C amid an approaching trough and associated frontal boundary. Persistent high pressure has maintained overnight lows near or above 20 °C through the current heat spell, but increasing cloud cover and possible northerly advection of cooler maritime air could reduce radiative cooling and lower the diurnal minimum by several degrees. Traders weigh the balance between continued warm advection versus the timing and strength of the expected weather shift, with resolution hinging on official Italian meteorological service observations of the 24-hour low. Updated model guidance and short-range high-resolution runs remain the key near-term catalysts.