Narendra Modi’s position as India’s prime minister remains firmly entrenched midway through his third term, with the next general election not scheduled until 2029 and no signals of resignation or loss of parliamentary support. Recent state election victories, including the Bharatiya Janata Party’s takeover of West Bengal in May 2026, have expanded the ruling coalition’s regional influence and weakened opposition coordination. Surveys from early 2026 indicate sustained public preference for continuity under Modi, reflecting voter emphasis on leadership stability amid coalition governance. With the Lok Sabha term fixed absent extraordinary circumstances such as a successful no-confidence vote or health-related developments, traders assign only limited probability to an exit before the end of 2026. Late-breaking events like major scandals or sudden coalition fractures could still shift assessments, though none have materialized to date.