The NY-15 district in the Bronx maintains a strong Democratic partisan lean, reflected in Ritchie Torres's 76.5% general election margin in 2024 and a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+27 to D+50. Torres, the incumbent first elected in 2020, secured the Democratic nomination in the June 23, 2026 primary against challengers including Michael Blake and Jose Vega. This outcome, combined with the November 3, 2026 general election timeline and the Republican nominee's limited profile, underpins the 97.5% trader consensus for a Democratic win. The seat's structural advantages and lack of competitive primary drama limit upside for the Republican candidate. Scenarios that could narrow the margin include a major personal or ethical development involving the incumbent, unusually high Republican turnout in a national wave year, or late shifts in voter registration within key Bronx neighborhoods.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाNY -15 हाउस इलेक्शन विनर
NY -15 हाउस इलेक्शन विनर
$46,179 वॉल्यूम
$46,179 वॉल्यूम
2 नव, 2026
डेमोक्रेटिक पार्टी
98%
रिपब्लिकन पार्टी
2%
$46,179 वॉल्यूम
$46,179 वॉल्यूम
2 नव, 2026
डेमोक्रेटिक पार्टी
$26,973 वॉल्यूम
98%
रिपब्लिकन पार्टी
$19,206 वॉल्यूम
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The NY-15 district in the Bronx maintains a strong Democratic partisan lean, reflected in Ritchie Torres's 76.5% general election margin in 2024 and a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+27 to D+50. Torres, the incumbent first elected in 2020, secured the Democratic nomination in the June 23, 2026 primary against challengers including Michael Blake and Jose Vega. This outcome, combined with the November 3, 2026 general election timeline and the Republican nominee's limited profile, underpins the 97.5% trader consensus for a Democratic win. The seat's structural advantages and lack of competitive primary drama limit upside for the Republican candidate. Scenarios that could narrow the margin include a major personal or ethical development involving the incumbent, unusually high Republican turnout in a national wave year, or late shifts in voter registration within key Bronx neighborhoods.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
बाज़ार खुला: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
वॉल्यूम
$46,179समाप्ति तिथि
3 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The NY-15 district in the Bronx maintains a strong Democratic partisan lean, reflected in Ritchie Torres's 76.5% general election margin in 2024 and a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+27 to D+50. Torres, the incumbent first elected in 2020, secured the Democratic nomination in the June 23, 2026 primary against challengers including Michael Blake and Jose Vega. This outcome, combined with the November 3, 2026 general election timeline and the Republican nominee's limited profile, underpins the 97.5% trader consensus for a Democratic win. The seat's structural advantages and lack of competitive primary drama limit upside for the Republican candidate. Scenarios that could narrow the margin include a major personal or ethical development involving the incumbent, unusually high Republican turnout in a national wave year, or late shifts in voter registration within key Bronx neighborhoods.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
वॉल्यूम
$46,179समाप्ति तिथि
3 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The NY-15 district in the Bronx maintains a strong Democratic partisan lean, reflected in Ritchie Torres's 76.5% general election margin in 2024 and a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+27 to D+50. Torres, the incumbent first elected in 2020, secured the Democratic nomination in the June 23, 2026 primary against challengers including Michael Blake and Jose Vega. This outcome, combined with the November 3, 2026 general election timeline and the Republican nominee's limited profile, underpins the 97.5% trader consensus for a Democratic win. The seat's structural advantages and lack of competitive primary drama limit upside for the Republican candidate. Scenarios that could narrow the margin include a major personal or ethical development involving the incumbent, unusually high Republican turnout in a national wave year, or late shifts in voter registration within key Bronx neighborhoods.
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