Marine Le Pen's market price surges after court ruling and candidacy announcement

Marine Le Pen surges to 35%25%

Following the court's decision and Le Pen's confirmation to run, her market price rose sharply, reflecting renewed confidence in her candidacy despite legal challenges.

Jordan Bardella's market probability plunges after Le Pen's appeal success

Jordan Bardella plunges to 3%24%

Following the Paris court of appeal's ruling allowing Marine Le Pen to run, Jordan Bardella's market probability sharply declined as he was no longer the likely far-right candidate. This reflected the market's reassessment of the far-right candidacy dynamics.

François Hollande hints at 2027 presidential run

François Hollande drops to 4%9%

Former President François Hollande suggested he might run again, signaling a potential left-wing comeback that added uncertainty to the Socialist Party’s prospects and influenced his market price.

François Hollande hints at possible 2027 presidential candidacy

François Hollande drops to 3%10%

Former president Hollande suggested he might run again, signaling a potential comeback that added uncertainty to the left-wing field and influenced his market price downward due to low chances.

Marine Le Pen launches campaign with 'renaissance' theme after regaining eligibility

Marine Le Pen surges to 33%24%

Following the court ruling restoring her eligibility, Marine Le Pen unveiled a campaign poster themed around the 'renaissance' of France and her candidacy, boosting her market position significantly.

David Lisnard delivers speech on institutions at Bayeux, marking campaign milestone

On June 17, 2026, David Lisnard, mayor of Cannes and presidential candidate, gave a significant speech on institutional reform at Bayeux, commemorating the 80th anniversary of de Gaulle's speech, which helped maintain his market price around 2%.

François Hollande prepares candidacy and meets supporters secretly

François Hollande held a secret meeting with over 160 supporters in July 2026, signaling serious preparation for a potential 2027 presidential run and aiming to consolidate his base.

Jordan Bardella declares intention to form national unity government if RN wins in 2027

Jordan Bardella plunges to 3%23%

Jordan Bardella announced plans to form a government of national unity beyond the National Rally if elected, signaling a strategic shift and cooperation with right-wing voters, which influenced his market price downward as Marine Le Pen's candidacy was confirmed.

Jordan Bardella shifts role after Marine Le Pen's candidacy confirmed

Jordan Bardella plunges to 4%22%

After Marine Le Pen's candidacy was confirmed, Jordan Bardella's market price plummeted as he moved from potential presidential candidate to a prime ministerial role in Le Pen's campaign. He announced plans to build the program and form a government, signaling a strategic repositioning.

Poll shows Marine Le Pen leading French presidential race after court ruling

Marine Le Pen surges to 31%21%

A poll conducted after the court ruling showed Marine Le Pen extending her lead in voter preference for the 2027 election, reflecting increased market confidence in her candidacy.

Marine Le Pen launches presidential campaign despite legal challenges

Marine Le Pen rises to 31%3%

Following the court ruling, Marine Le Pen officially launched her presidential campaign on July 8, 2026, signaling her determination to run despite wearing an electronic monitor and ongoing legal scrutiny. This announcement reinforced her market position and solidified her candidacy.

French court clears Marine Le Pen to run in 2027 presidential election

Marine Le Pen surges to 32%23%

A French court ruling suspended the effect of Marine Le Pen's electoral ban while she appeals, reopening her path to the 2027 presidential election and boosting her market price.

Marine Le Pen launches 2027 presidential campaign after court ruling

Marine Le Pen launched her fourth presidential campaign following the court's decision allowing her to run. She positioned herself as the far-right candidate despite protests and legal controversies, reinforcing her market standing.

Marine Le Pen announces candidacy for 2027 presidential election despite legal constraints

Marine Le Pen dips to 29%4%

Following the court ruling, Le Pen declared her candidacy and stated she would not campaign while wearing the electronic tag, signaling a contentious and high-profile campaign ahead.

Jordan Bardella sidelined as Marine Le Pen confirmed as RN candidate

Jordan Bardella plunges to 3%23%

Following the court ruling allowing Marine Le Pen to run, Jordan Bardella, her protégé and potential substitute candidate, saw his market price collapse as Le Pen reclaimed the far-right candidacy.

Marine Le Pen announces presidential run despite conviction and electronic monitoring sentence

Marine Le Pen surges to 30%20%

Le Pen declared her candidacy on national television, emphasizing that she would campaign without an electronic bracelet, which reassured supporters and boosted her market position.

Marine Le Pen officially declares candidacy for 2027 presidential election

Marine Le Pen surges to 32%22%

Following the court ruling, Marine Le Pen declared her candidacy for the 2027 presidential election, reaffirming her campaign despite legal challenges and promising to run without an electronic tag.

Marine Le Pen officially launches 2027 presidential campaign after appeal court ruling

Marine Le Pen dips to 30%2%

Following the court decision, Marine Le Pen announced her candidacy on French TV, stating she would campaign without the electronic tag pending further appeal. This solidified her market position and confirmed her as a leading far-right candidate.

Marine Le Pen announces 2027 presidential candidacy despite conviction

Marine Le Pen surges to 30%20%

Following the court ruling, Le Pen declared her candidacy and intention to appeal, asserting she would campaign without an electronic bracelet, which boosted her market standing significantly.

Marine Le Pen officially announces candidacy for 2027 presidential election after court ruling

Marine Le Pen surges to 31%21%

Following the court ruling, Marine Le Pen declared her candidacy on television, reinforcing her position as the National Rally's candidate and boosting her market price.

French court suspends Marine Le Pen's electoral ban, clearing path for 2027 run

Marine Le Pen surges to 33%24%

A court ruling suspended Le Pen's ban while she appeals, allowing her to run in the 2027 election and boosting her market odds significantly.

Jordan Bardella remains far-right National Rally candidate amid Le Pen's legal issues

Jordan Bardella plunges to 3%24%

With Le Pen's eligibility confirmed but uncertain, Bardella stayed the likely far-right candidate, causing his market price to plunge as the party's focus consolidated.

Marine Le Pen announces presidential candidacy and appeal against conviction

Marine Le Pen surges to 28%22%

Following the court ruling, Marine Le Pen declared her candidacy for the 2027 presidential election and announced she would appeal her conviction to the Court of Cassation, allowing her to campaign without wearing an electronic tag for now, which positively impacted her market price.

Jordan Bardella faces legal uncertainty as Marine Le Pen's appeal proceeds

Jordan Bardella plunges to 5%21%

With Marine Le Pen's eligibility uncertain due to her conviction appeal, Jordan Bardella's market price plummeted as his potential candidacy became less certain, reflecting the party's internal uncertainty.

Paris Court of Appeal upholds Marine Le Pen's conviction but clears her to run for president

Marine Le Pen surges to 33%24%

The Paris Court of Appeal upheld Marine Le Pen's embezzlement conviction but reduced her ban from public office, allowing her to run in the 2027 presidential election under conditions she rejects, impacting her and Jordan Bardella's candidacies.

Marine Le Pen officially announces presidential candidacy after court ruling

Marine Le Pen surges to 27%18%

Following the court decision, Marine Le Pen publicly confirmed her candidacy for the presidency, ending uncertainty and boosting her market price significantly.

Court ruling allows Marine Le Pen to run for president despite conviction

Marine Le Pen surges to 25%16%

A court ruling on Le Pen's appeal allowed her to run in the 2027 election despite her conviction and sentence to wear an electronic tag, reviving her candidacy and impacting market dynamics.

Court of Appeal shortens Marine Le Pen's ban, allowing 2027 presidential run

Marine Le Pen surges to 29%20%

The Paris Court of Appeal upheld Marine Le Pen's conviction but reduced her ineligibility period, enabling her to run in the 2027 presidential election, causing a sharp rise in her market price and a collapse for Jordan Bardella.

Jordan Bardella's presidential prospects collapse after Le Pen court ruling

Jordan Bardella plunges to 5%22%

Jordan Bardella's market price plummeted after the court ruling allowed Marine Le Pen to run, ending Bardella's chances as the National Rally's candidate. Bardella returned to a secondary role within the party.

Marine Le Pen confirms candidacy for 2027 presidential election

Marine Le Pen publicly confirmed her candidacy for the 2027 presidential election, stating she would not campaign while wearing the electronic tag, which she is required to wear due to her sentence, adding clarity to her campaign status.

Paris Court of Appeals rules Marine Le Pen eligible to run in 2027 presidential election

Marine Le Pen surges to 32%23%

On July 7, 2026, the Paris Court of Appeals reduced Marine Le Pen's sentence and suspended her electoral ban pending appeal, clearing her path to run in the 2027 presidential election and causing a sharp rise in her market price.

Paris Court of Appeal rules on Marine Le Pen's eligibility for 2027 election

Marine Le Pen surges to 25%19%

The Paris Court of Appeal reduced Marine Le Pen's sentence and suspended her electoral ban pending appeal, reopening her path to the 2027 presidential election and causing a significant rise in her market price.

Marine Le Pen announces candidacy and plans to appeal house arrest ruling

Marine Le Pen jumps to 31%6%

Marine Le Pen announced she will run in the 2027 presidential election and plans to appeal the ruling mandating her house arrest, stating she will not campaign while wearing an electronic tag, impacting market confidence.

Paris court clears Marine Le Pen to run for presidency with electronic tag

Marine Le Pen surges to 31%21%

The Paris Court of Appeal upheld Marine Le Pen's conviction for misuse of EU funds but reduced her ban on running for office, allowing her to run in the 2027 election while serving a prison sentence under electronic monitoring, boosting her market probability.

Paris Court of Appeal clears Marine Le Pen to run in 2027 election

Marine Le Pen surges to 30%19%

The Paris Court of Appeal shortened Marine Le Pen's ban on holding public office, allowing her to stand in the 2027 presidential election despite her conviction, which caused a significant market price increase for her and a drop for Jordan Bardella.

Jordan Bardella expresses support for Marine Le Pen's presidential candidacy

Jordan Bardella plunges to 3%23%

After Marine Le Pen's candidacy was confirmed, Jordan Bardella publicly expressed his support and commitment to work alongside her, which clarified his role and led to a sharp decline in his market price as he stepped back from running himself.

Bruno Retailleau presents AI priorities at Salon Machina, emphasizing technology in governance

On July 7, 2026, Bruno Retailleau, LR presidential candidate, unveiled his priorities on artificial intelligence at the Salon Machina, advocating for significant investment to enhance state efficiency, which helped maintain his market price at 3%.

Paris appeals court reduces Marine Le Pen's ban, allowing 2027 presidential run

Marine Le Pen surges to 29%23%

The Paris Court of Appeal upheld Marine Le Pen's conviction but shortened her ban on holding elected office, enabling her to run in the 2027 presidential election. This legal development caused a significant increase in her market price as it cleared uncertainty about her candidacy.

Marine Le Pen confirms 2027 presidential candidacy despite conviction

Marine Le Pen drops to 30%5%

Following the court ruling, Le Pen announced on French TV that she would run in the 2027 presidential election and appeal the decision to avoid campaigning under electronic monitoring, reinforcing her candidacy and market position.

Marine Le Pen announces 2027 presidential candidacy despite legal challenges

Marine Le Pen rises to 31%1%

Following the court ruling, Le Pen declared her candidacy for the 2027 election, signaling her intent to campaign without an electronic tag. This announcement significantly boosted her market price and solidified her position as a frontrunner.

Paris Court of Appeal shortens Marine Le Pen's ban, clearing way for 2027 run

Marine Le Pen surges to 35%29%

The court upheld Le Pen's conviction but reduced her ban on holding office, allowing her to run in the 2027 election while serving a prison sentence under electronic monitoring. This legal development significantly impacted her market price.

Paris Court of Appeal reduces Marine Le Pen's ban, clearing way for 2027 candidacy

Marine Le Pen surges to 31%22%

The court upheld Le Pen's conviction but shortened her ban on holding public office, allowing her to run in the 2027 election. She confirmed her candidacy the same day, causing a sharp rise in her market price and a steep drop for Jordan Bardella, her potential replacement.

Paris appeals court upholds Marine Le Pen's conviction but shortens election ban

Marine Le Pen surges to 30%20%

The court confirmed Le Pen's guilt in embezzlement but reduced her ban on holding office, allowing her to run in the 2027 election. This ruling lifted uncertainty about her candidacy and shifted far-right support dynamics.

Paris appeals court shortens Marine Le Pen’s ban, allowing 2027 presidential run

Marine Le Pen surges to 30%20%

The court upheld Le Pen’s embezzlement conviction but reduced her ban on holding office, enabling her to run in the 2027 election and causing a significant market price increase for her candidacy.

Édouard Philippe holds first major campaign meeting in Paris

Édouard Philippe jumps to 26%6%

On July 5, 2026, Édouard Philippe held his first large campaign meeting at the Adidas Arena in Paris, outlining his program focused on reducing public deficit and reforming education, which boosted his market price from 20% to 26%.

Édouard Philippe launches major campaign rally for 2027 presidential bid in Paris

Édouard Philippe rises to 28%4%

Former Prime Minister Édouard Philippe held a large campaign event in Paris to officially launch his 2027 presidential campaign, boosting his visibility and market price.

Paris appeals court to rule on Marine Le Pen's eligibility for 2027 election

Marine Le Pen rises to 9%2%

The Paris Court of Appeal is set to decide on Marine Le Pen's appeal against her embezzlement conviction, a ruling that will determine her eligibility to run in the 2027 presidential election, causing market uncertainty.

Jean-Luc Mélenchon asserts ability to defeat far-right candidates

Jean-Luc Mélenchon rises to 12%3%

On July 5, 2026, Jean-Luc Mélenchon publicly stated his confidence in beating the National Rally candidates and potentially eliminating them in the first round, maintaining his steady campaign presence and modest market gains.

Édouard Philippe launches presidential campaign with promise of collective effort and education reform

Édouard Philippe jumps to 26%6%

Édouard Philippe officially launched his presidential campaign on July 5, 2026, promising a collective effort from the French people and a massive overhaul of the education system, which contributed to his market price rising to 26%.

Édouard Philippe holds major campaign rally in Paris

Édouard Philippe rises to 27%3%

Édouard Philippe held a significant campaign rally at the Adidas Arena in Paris, receiving endorsements and consolidating his position as a leading center-right candidate, which supported his market price.

Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella appear together at far-right rally

Marine Le Pen surges to 33%24%

Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella appeared together at a rally, signaling party unity ahead of the election and impacting their respective market prices.

Jordan Bardella calls for change, warning against continuing as before

Jordan Bardella plunges to 3%23%

On July 4, 2026, Jordan Bardella, RN leader, publicly stated that the greatest danger for France in 2027 is to continue as before, signaling his campaign's focus on change, coinciding with his market price dropping to 3%.

David Lisnard holds first major campaign meeting for 2027 presidential election

David Lisnard dips to 3%1%

David Lisnard held his first large campaign event in Saint-Raphaël, marking a significant step in his presidential campaign and attempting to raise his profile despite low polling numbers.

François Hollande's approval rises among leftist voters despite low overall support

François Hollande dips to 2%1%

Polls in early July showed François Hollande gaining positive reviews among left-wing voters, reaching 46% approval in that group, though his overall market price declined to 2%. This indicates a niche resurgence but limited broader electoral impact.

Laurent Wauquiez offers political support to Édouard Philippe

Édouard Philippe rises to 21%2%

Laurent Wauquiez, leader of the Les Républicains deputies, publicly extended support to Édouard Philippe's presidential bid, signaling a consolidation of center-right forces behind Philippe. This endorsement was seen as a strategic addition to Philippe's campaign, likely contributing to increased market confidence in his candidacy.

French presidential election dates set for April 18 and May 2, 2027

The official dates for the 2027 French presidential election were announced, confirming the first round on April 18 and the runoff on May 2, setting the timeline for campaigns and influencing market expectations.

French government officially sets presidential election dates for April 18 and May 2, 2027

The official announcement of the election dates provided clarity on the election timeline, confirming the schedule for the first round and runoff, which influenced market expectations for all candidates.

Marine Le Pen appeal verdict expected, determining her eligibility for 2027 election

The Paris Court of Appeal was set to rule on July 7, 2026, on Marine Le Pen's appeal against her 2025 conviction and five-year ban from holding office. The verdict would decide if she could run in 2027, with a ban likely elevating Jordan Bardella as the RN candidate.

Investigation opens into Jordan Bardella over alleged EU fund misuse

Jordan Bardella plunges to 4%22%

Jordan Bardella, then front-runner for the National Rally, was investigated for alleged embezzlement of EU funds, damaging his candidacy prospects and leading to a sharp decline in his market price.

Marine Le Pen expresses no fear ahead of July 7 court ruling on eligibility

Marine Le Pen rises to 9%2%

Facing a critical court decision on her appeal against a five-year ban from public office, Marine Le Pen publicly stated she was not afraid, keeping uncertainty over her candidacy alive and affecting market prices.

France sets presidential election date for April 18, 2027

France officially announced the first round of the next presidential election will be held on April 18, 2027, with a runoff on May 2, providing a clear timeline for the campaign and market participants.

France sets presidential election dates for April 18 and May 2, 2027

The official announcement of the election dates provided clarity on the timeline, impacting candidate strategies and market prices, especially for leading contenders.

Gabriel Attal outlines vision for a liberal and uncompromising project

Gabriel Attal dips to 3%1%

Gabriel Attal publicly presented his vision for a liberal and uncompromising political project on June 30, 2026, positioning himself as a unifier beyond the right and center, which helped stabilize his market price around 3%.

Government spokesperson Maud Bregeon endorses Édouard Philippe for 2027 presidency

Édouard Philippe rises to 27%3%

Maud Bregeon publicly supported Édouard Philippe's candidacy, aiming to prevent a far-right victory. This endorsement bolstered Philippe's campaign and market confidence.

Government spokesman Maud Bregeon endorses Édouard Philippe for 2027 presidency

Édouard Philippe jumps to 27%7%

Maud Bregeon, government spokesperson, publicly supported Édouard Philippe's candidacy for the 2027 presidential election, providing a boost to his campaign and market price.

Court of Appeal to rule on Marine Le Pen's eligibility to run in 2027 election

The Paris Court of Appeal was expected to decide in summer 2026 whether Marine Le Pen could run in the 2027 presidential election, creating uncertainty around her candidacy and affecting related market prices.

François Hollande hints at possible 2027 presidential run

François Hollande dips to 3%1%

Former president François Hollande showed signs of preparing for a potential 2027 presidential campaign in late June 2026, generating some market interest though his price remained low due to uncertainty about his candidacy.

Poll shows Édouard Philippe maintains lead among centrists but faces pressure from Attal and Mélenchon

Édouard Philippe rises to 21%2%

A June 26 Ifop-Fiducial poll showed Édouard Philippe leading the centrist vote but with narrowing margins as Gabriel Attal and Jean-Luc Mélenchon gained ground. Philippe's market price fluctuated around 19-21%, reflecting uncertainty in his campaign strength.

Polls confirm Jordan Bardella's record popularity and far-right lead

Jordan Bardella rises to 27%1%

June polls showed Jordan Bardella's approval rating doubling over four years to 40%, solidifying his lead over Marine Le Pen and other candidates. This reinforced Bardella's market price near 27%, reflecting strong public support for his candidacy.

Édouard Philippe holds major nationwide discussion event

Édouard Philippe rises to 21%3%

Philippe organized a significant nationwide discussion event as part of his campaign strategy to mobilize grassroots support, contributing to a gradual increase in his market price.

Franck Leroy, President of Greater East Region, endorses Édouard Philippe

Édouard Philippe jumps to 26%6%

Franck Leroy publicly supported Édouard Philippe for the presidential election, boosting Philippe's credibility and market price as a leading center-right candidate.

Bruno Retailleau announces bid for 2027 presidential election

Bruno Retailleau rises to 3%1%

Bruno Retailleau publicly declared his candidacy for the 2027 presidential election, emphasizing a platform focused on order and prosperity. This announcement was reflected in a slight increase in his market price.

Bruno Retailleau holds grand meeting in Paris as presidential candidate

Bruno Retailleau held a major campaign event in Paris, signaling his active campaign for the 2027 presidential election and attempting to boost his visibility and support.

Jordan Bardella gains as Marine Le Pen's substitute candidate amid legal uncertainty

Jordan Bardella rises to 26%4%

With Marine Le Pen's legal troubles ongoing, Jordan Bardella's market probability stabilized and slightly increased as he was positioned as the National Rally's substitute candidate for 2027.

Bruno Retailleau holds first major campaign meeting in Paris

Bruno Retailleau organized his first large campaign meeting to energize his presidential bid, aiming to distinguish himself from Macronism and consolidate right-wing support.

Bruno Retailleau launches presidential campaign rally in Paris

Bruno Retailleau jumps to 10%7%

Retailleau held a major campaign event to promote his project and present himself as an alternative to Macron and the far right, aiming to consolidate his support within the right-wing electorate.

Jordan Bardella vows to win 2027 French presidential election and shift EU policy

Jordan Bardella dips to 25%2%

Bardella pledged to confront EU institutions and reduce German influence, reinforcing his far-right credentials and solidifying his position as a leading candidate.

Bruno Retailleau holds first campaign meeting in Paris to build momentum

Retailleau organized his first major campaign meeting at Parc floral de Paris to solidify his candidacy amid questions about his political line and absences of key party figures. The event aimed to create a dynamic for his presidential bid.

Dominique de Villepin's popularity declines amid presidential speculation

Dominique de Villepin drops to 3%5%

Dominique de Villepin's market price dropped significantly as his potential candidacy became less certain and his political influence waned during the analysis period.

Raphaël Glucksmann holds first major campaign rally

Raphaël Glucksmann held a significant campaign rally in Aubervilliers, reaffirming his determination to run and boosting his profile among left-leaning voters, though his market price remained low.

Gabriel Attal launches major campaign rally in Paris presenting future-focused platform

Gabriel Attal rises to 9%3%

On June 10, Gabriel Attal held a large rally in Paris to present his campaign platform emphasizing education, wages, borders, and AI innovation. This event aimed to recast his image as a candidate of renewal, stabilizing his market price around 6% to 9%.

Bruno Retailleau announces candidacy for 2027 French presidential election

Bruno Retailleau rises to 5%2%

Bruno Retailleau, leader of The Republicans party, announced his candidacy for the 2027 presidential election, leading to a rise in his market price.

Jean-Luc Mélenchon launches 2027 campaign rally in Saint-Denis

Jean-Luc Mélenchon rises to 13%2%

Mélenchon held a large rally in Saint-Denis to officially launch his presidential campaign, demonstrating his established political machine and solidifying his campaign presence. This event reinforced his candidacy and maintained his market support.

Paris riots boost Jordan Bardella's approval ratings

Jordan Bardella rises to 26%1%

Riots in Paris heightened public concern over disorder and immigration, significantly increasing Bardella's approval and market support as a leading far-right candidate.

Jordan Bardella's popularity surges after PSG-related unrest

Jordan Bardella rises to 27%3%

Following unrest linked to PSG's victory, Jordan Bardella's popularity reached a record high, with polls showing increased public support. This surge contributed to Bardella's market price rising from 24% to 27% in early June, reinforcing his position as the far-right frontrunner.

David Lisnard announces departure from The Republicans amid presidential primary dispute

David Lisnard dips to 2%4%

Following his strong municipal election win in March 2026, David Lisnard announced his departure from The Republicans in early June 2026 due to disagreements over the presidential candidate selection process, leading to a drop in his market price.

Gabriel Attal delivers first presidential campaign speech emphasizing hope and optimism

Gabriel Attal rises to 6%2%

Attal's campaign launch speech aimed to position him as a mature and hopeful centrist candidate, reinforcing his market presence despite competition.

Gabriel Attal formally launches 2027 presidential campaign with reform agenda

Gabriel Attal rises to 7%1%

Gabriel Attal announced his candidacy for the 2027 presidential election, emphasizing fiscal reforms including voluntary public sector job cuts and budget discipline, which affected his market price.

Gabriel Attal kicks off presidential campaign with major rally in Paris

Gabriel Attal rises to 9%3%

Gabriel Attal launched his presidential campaign on May 30, 2026, with a major rally in Paris, emphasizing reform and a break from the Macron era. This event helped stabilize his market price around 6-9%.

Édouard Philippe confirms candidacy for 2027 presidential election despite legal scrutiny

Édouard Philippe jumps to 27%6%

Édouard Philippe declared he would run for president regardless of any non-final judicial decisions, reinforcing his position as a leading center-right candidate and influencing market confidence in his chances.

Édouard Philippe vows to remain candidate even if indicted

Édouard Philippe rises to 16%2%

Philippe stated on France Inter that no non-final judicial decision would prevent his candidacy, addressing ongoing investigations and reassuring supporters, which stabilized his market position.

Poll projects Jordan Bardella to win French presidency amid far-right surge

Jordan Bardella drops to 27%7%

Polls showed Bardella leading the presidential race, boosting his market price as the far-right's likely candidate following Le Pen's legal troubles.

Poll shows Jean-Luc Mélenchon surging, neck and neck with Édouard Philippe

Jean-Luc Mélenchon rises to 12%3%

An Odoxa poll published on May 26 indicated Jean-Luc Mélenchon gaining 4 points to reach 16%, closely matching Édouard Philippe's 17%, signaling a tightening race for second place behind Jordan Bardella. This poll caused Mélenchon's market price to rise from 9% to 12%, while Philippe's price dipped from 21% to 16%.

Poll shows Jordan Bardella leading 2027 presidential race

Jordan Bardella drops to 27%7%

A poll by Odoxa in May 2026 showed far-right leader Jordan Bardella as the frontrunner for the 2027 French presidential election, boosting his market price. However, his position later declined following Le Pen's appeal ruling.

Édouard Philippe officially launches 2027 presidential campaign

Édouard Philippe jumps to 26%5%

Former Prime Minister Édouard Philippe announced his candidacy for the 2027 presidential election, positioning himself as a leading centrist candidate and causing a rise in his market price.

Gabriel Attal announces 2027 presidential bid

Former Prime Minister Gabriel Attal officially announced his candidacy for the 2027 presidential election, positioning himself as a centrist candidate to succeed Emmanuel Macron and challenge the far right.

Gabriel Attal officially enters 2027 French presidential race

Gabriel Attal rises to 6%2%

Gabriel Attal, former Prime Minister and Secretary General of Renaissance party, formally announced his candidacy for the 2027 presidential election, impacting his market price.

Gabriel Attal launches presidential campaign rally in Paris

Gabriel Attal rises to 6%2%

Gabriel Attal kicked off his presidential campaign with a major rally in Paris, emphasizing a break from the Macron era and reforming the political system, which boosted his visibility and market position.

Gabriel Attal officially launches presidential campaign

Gabriel Attal rises to 10%4%

Former Prime Minister Gabriel Attal announced his bid for the presidency, aiming to position himself as a centrist alternative and distancing from Macron. This entry increased his market support and intensified centrist competition.

Gabriel Attal officially announces 2027 presidential candidacy

Gabriel Attal drops to 4%12%

Former Prime Minister Gabriel Attal declared his candidacy, positioning himself as a centrist alternative to Philippe and Macron's legacy, intensifying competition in the centrist camp.

Édouard Philippe launches presidential campaign to challenge far right

Édouard Philippe jumps to 27%6%

Édouard Philippe officially launched his campaign in May 2026, positioning himself as the leading centrist candidate to counter the far-right National Rally. His campaign focused on uniting the center-right and addressing conservative issues, which helped maintain and slightly increase his market price around 21-27%.

Gabriel Attal officially declares 2027 presidential candidacy

Gabriel Attal drops to 8%8%

Former Prime Minister Gabriel Attal announced his candidacy for the 2027 presidential election, intensifying competition within the centrist camp and affecting market prices for centrist candidates.

Gabriel Attal announces presidential candidacy for 2027 election

Gabriel Attal rises to 6%3%

On May 22, 2026, former Prime Minister Gabriel Attal formally announced his candidacy for the 2027 presidential election, entering the crowded centrist field and sparking competition for the moderate vote. This announcement caused his market price to rise from 3% to 6%.

Gabriel Attal formally announces candidacy for 2027 French presidential election

Gabriel Attal drops to 3%13%

Former Prime Minister Gabriel Attal officially launched his presidential campaign, positioning himself as a centrist challenger to the far right and impacting his market price.

Gabriel Attal formally announces presidential candidacy

Gabriel Attal rises to 6%2%

Gabriel Attal officially launched his bid for the 2027 French presidential election, positioning himself as a centrist alternative and distancing from Macron, which caused a rise in his market price.

Gabriel Attal officially announces candidacy for 2027 presidential election

Gabriel Attal drops to 7%9%

Former Prime Minister Gabriel Attal declared his presidential bid, entering the crowded centrist field and causing a decline in his market price amid competition with Philippe and others.

Gabriel Attal officially declares candidacy for 2027 French presidential election

Gabriel Attal drops to 7%9%

Gabriel Attal, former Prime Minister and Renaissance party leader, announced his presidential bid in Mur-de-Barrez, marking a key moment for the centrist camp and intensifying competition with Édouard Philippe. This announcement caused a notable drop in his market price reflecting initial uncertainty.

Gabriel Attal officially launches 2027 presidential bid

Gabriel Attal formally announced his candidacy for the 2027 presidential election, increasing his visibility and market support as a centrist contender.

Gabriel Attal officially announces presidential candidacy

Gabriel Attal rises to 6%3%

Former Prime Minister Gabriel Attal formally launched his bid, aiming to position himself as a centrist alternative and distancing from Macron, which caused a rise in his market price.

Gabriel Attal formally launches presidential bid

Gabriel Attal jumps to 9%6%

Former Prime Minister Gabriel Attal officially announced his candidacy for the 2027 presidential election, entering the crowded centrist field and sparking competition for the moderate vote. This announcement caused a price increase in his market share.

Gabriel Attal formally launches presidential bid, challenging Macron's legacy

Gabriel Attal rises to 6%2%

Gabriel Attal officially launched his presidential campaign, distancing himself from Macron and positioning as a centrist reformer, which increased his market visibility and price.

French presidential contender Édouard Philippe targeted by embezzlement probe

Édouard Philippe dips to 17%4%

On May 20, 2026, French prosecutors announced a probe against Édouard Philippe over alleged embezzlement related to a digital hub contract in Le Havre, causing uncertainty and a dip in his market price.

Édouard Philippe targeted by embezzlement probe

Édouard Philippe dips to 14%3%

Philippe faced a judicial investigation over alleged embezzlement related to a contract in Le Havre, potentially impacting his campaign and market support due to legal uncertainties.

Judicial probe opened into Édouard Philippe over corruption allegations

Édouard Philippe dips to 16%4%

A French investigating judge was appointed to probe Édouard Philippe for alleged misappropriation of public funds and conflict of interest, casting a shadow over his presidential campaign prospects.

Judicial probe opened against Édouard Philippe over alleged corruption

Édouard Philippe drops to 14%13%

French prosecutors announced an investigation into Édouard Philippe for alleged embezzlement related to a digital hub contract, causing a significant drop in his market price due to legal uncertainty.

Bruno Retailleau elected president of The Republicans party

Bruno Retailleau plunges to 4%24%

Bruno Retailleau won the leadership of The Republicans with 74.31% of the vote, consolidating his position as the party's presidential candidate. This leadership victory was a key factor in his market price decline as he entered the race.

François Hollande hints at possible 2027 presidential candidacy

Former president Hollande suggested he might run again, raising speculation and modestly influencing his market price despite low chances of winning.

Édouard Philippe launches 2027 presidential campaign

Édouard Philippe jumps to 27%6%

Former Prime Minister Édouard Philippe officially launched his campaign for the 2027 presidential election, consolidating his position as a leading centrist candidate and main rival to the far right. This campaign launch helped increase his market probability.

François Hollande signals potential 2027 presidential run

Former president François Hollande indicated he is preparing for a possible candidacy in the 2027 presidential election, adding a notable figure to the left-wing field despite low polling numbers.

Édouard Philippe projects Horizons party towards 2027 presidential election

Édouard Philippe jumps to 21%7%

Édouard Philippe, former Prime Minister and leader of Horizons, positioned himself as a unifying candidate for the 2027 election, distancing from Macron. This bolstered his market price and solidified his candidacy.

Édouard Philippe launches campaign for 2027 French presidential election

Édouard Philippe jumps to 27%6%

Former Prime Minister Édouard Philippe officially launched his presidential campaign, positioning himself as the main centrist candidate to challenge the far-right, which boosted his market price.

Édouard Philippe launches presidential campaign to challenge far right

Édouard Philippe jumps to 26%5%

Former Prime Minister Édouard Philippe officially launched his campaign, positioning himself as the main centrist contender against the far-right candidates, influencing his market price upward.

Édouard Philippe holds major rally to boost 2027 presidential campaign

Édouard Philippe jumps to 24%6%

Édouard Philippe organized a large rally in Reims to galvanize support for his presidential bid, reflecting his growing momentum and steady polling position.

Judicial probe opened against Édouard Philippe over alleged corruption

Édouard Philippe drops to 14%7%

A judicial investigation was opened against Édouard Philippe concerning alleged misappropriation of public funds and conflict of interest, potentially damaging his presidential campaign prospects and causing a decline in market probability.

Jean-Luc Mélenchon announces 2027 presidential bid

Jean-Luc Mélenchon drops to 11%7%

Jean-Luc Mélenchon declared his candidacy for the 2027 election, but his market price declined from 18% to 11% over the period, reflecting challenges in left-wing voter consolidation.

Jean-Luc Mélenchon announces candidacy for 2027 presidential election

Jean-Luc Mélenchon rises to 12%2%

Mélenchon declared his intention to run, consolidating his position as the leading left-wing candidate and impacting his market price by confirming his participation in the race.

Jean-Luc Mélenchon officially confirms 2027 presidential run

Jean-Luc Mélenchon rises to 13%1%

Mélenchon publicly confirmed his candidacy on French TV, emphasizing his readiness and positioning himself against the far-right. This solidified his campaign and influenced market perceptions of his chances.

Jean-Luc Mélenchon announces fourth presidential run for 2027

Jean-Luc Mélenchon drops to 13%5%

Jean-Luc Mélenchon declared his candidacy for the 2027 presidential election, aiming to consolidate the radical left vote despite internal divisions. This announcement was followed by a slight decline in his market price from 18% to around 13%, reflecting mixed voter sentiment.

Jean-Luc Mélenchon officially announces 2027 presidential candidacy

Jean-Luc Mélenchon rises to 12%2%

Mélenchon declared his run for the 2027 election on May 3, 2026, emphasizing his left-wing platform and positioning himself as a major candidate. This announcement confirmed his participation and influenced his market odds, which showed a modest increase afterward.

Jean-Luc Mélenchon announces 2027 presidential candidacy

Jean-Luc Mélenchon drops to 13%5%

Mélenchon declared his intention to run for president, aiming to leverage his early announcement to consolidate left-wing support, which influenced his market position despite challenges from other left candidates.

Bruno Retailleau outlines presidential project focusing on order and prosperity

Bruno Retailleau presented his presidential project emphasizing order, prosperity, and French pride, aiming to rally the right-wing electorate and solidify his campaign platform.

Paris appeals court sets July 7 verdict date for Marine Le Pen's appeal trial

Marine Le Pen dips to 6%2%

The court announced the verdict date for Le Pen's appeal trial, heightening uncertainty about her presidential bid and boosting Bardella's prospects as her potential replacement, impacting their market prices.

François Hollande hints at preparing for 2027 presidential run

François Hollande drops to 3%10%

Former President François Hollande indicated he was preparing for a possible candidacy in the 2027 presidential election, which modestly increased his market probability despite significant challenges within his party and electorate.

François Hollande openly prepares for 2027 presidential election

François Hollande drops to 3%10%

Former President François Hollande publicly indicated he is preparing for a possible candidacy in the 2027 election, emphasizing his experience and desire to unite the left and center electorate.

Bruno Retailleau makes controversial remarks about Spain

Bruno Retailleau dips to 3%1%

Retailleau's statement about ostracizing Spain from the EU sparked controversy, affecting his public image and possibly contributing to fluctuations in his market price.

National Rally prepares for 2027 campaign amid uncertainty over Le Pen candidacy

Pending a July court decision on Marine Le Pen's eligibility, the National Rally prepared for the 2027 presidential campaign with Jordan Bardella as a potential candidate, affecting their market prices.

Bruno Retailleau officially endorsed as Les Républicains presidential candidate

Bruno Retailleau plunges to 3%25%

Bruno Retailleau won the official backing of the Les Républicains party after an internal survey favored launching his campaign immediately over holding a primary. This endorsement was expected to boost his campaign and consolidate right-wing support.

Bruno Retailleau elected president of The Republicans party

Bruno Retailleau plunges to 3%25%

Retailleau won the leadership of The Republicans with 74.31% of the vote in May 2025, consolidating his position as the party's presidential candidate, which influenced his market price.

Bruno Retailleau chosen as official candidate of Les Républicains

Bruno Retailleau jumps to 10%5%

Les Républicains party members overwhelmingly endorsed Retailleau as their presidential candidate, solidifying his position and causing a temporary market price increase.

Bruno Retailleau endorsed as Les Républicains candidate for 2027 presidential election

Bruno Retailleau rises to 7%4%

Retailleau won the official backing of his party, solidifying his position as the conservative candidate and causing a market price surge despite later declines.

The Republicans endorse Bruno Retailleau as presidential candidate

The Republicans party members voted overwhelmingly to back Bruno Retailleau as their official candidate, consolidating his position and impacting his market price.

Bruno Retailleau officially nominated as Les Républicains candidate for 2027 election

Bruno Retailleau plunges to 3%25%

Bruno Retailleau secured the official backing of Les Républicains party members, becoming their presidential candidate, which initially boosted his market price before it declined amid competition.

Bruno Retailleau designated as Les Républicains presidential candidate

Bruno Retailleau plunges to 3%25%

Bruno Retailleau was officially designated as the candidate of Les Républicains for the 2027 presidential election by party members, consolidating his position as the right-wing contender within the party.

Bruno Retailleau nominated as The Republicans' candidate for 2027 presidency

Bruno Retailleau surges to 28%25%

Retailleau secured the nomination of The Republicans party with strong internal support, marking him as the official conservative candidate and impacting his market price positively.

Bruno Retailleau selected as The Republicans' presidential candidate

Bruno Retailleau plunges to 3%25%

Bruno Retailleau was officially chosen by The Republicans party members as their candidate for the 2027 presidential election in an internal vote. Despite this endorsement, his market price remained low around 3%, indicating limited broader support.

Bruno Retailleau endorsed as The Republicans' presidential candidate

Bruno Retailleau plunges to 3%25%

On April 19, 2026, The Republicans party members voted to endorse Bruno Retailleau directly as their presidential candidate, leading to his market price decline as he entered the race and consolidating his position.

Bruno Retailleau selected as official Les Républicains candidate for 2027 presidency

Bruno Retailleau surges to 28%23%

Les Républicains party members overwhelmingly endorsed Bruno Retailleau as their presidential candidate with 73.8% of the vote, solidifying his position and causing a market price surge.

Bruno Retailleau officially designated Les Républicains candidate for 2027 presidency

Bruno Retailleau surges to 28%25%

Les Républicains party members overwhelmingly endorsed Retailleau as their presidential candidate, solidifying his position and causing a market price surge.

François Hollande signals preparation for 2027 presidential run

François Hollande drops to 3%10%

Former President François Hollande publicly stated he is preparing for a possible 2027 presidential candidacy, gaining attention as a potential left-wing contender and influencing his market price downward due to uncertainty.

François Hollande signals preparation for 2027 presidential bid

Former president François Hollande indicated he was preparing for a possible candidacy, aiming to represent the left-wing reformist camp. This announcement raised his profile and market interest.

François Hollande signals preparation for 2027 presidential run

François Hollande rises to 4%1%

Former President François Hollande publicly indicated he was preparing for a possible 2027 presidential candidacy, which modestly increased his market presence despite challenges within the left and low polling numbers.

David Lisnard announces departure from Les Républicains and presidential candidacy

David Lisnard plunges to 2%15%

David Lisnard left Les Républicains and announced his candidacy for the 2027 presidential election, aiming to represent a new right-wing movement. This announcement led to a decline in his market price as he entered a crowded field.

Dominique de Villepin declares intent to be 'candidate of unity' for 2027

Dominique de Villepin rises to 7%2%

Dominique de Villepin publicly expressed his desire to be a unifying candidate for the 2027 presidential election on April 10, 2026, which briefly raised his market price from 5% to 7%.

Édouard Philippe launches 2027 presidential campaign

Édouard Philippe jumps to 26%5%

Former Prime Minister Édouard Philippe officially launched his campaign for the 2027 presidential election, positioning himself as the main centrist candidate to counter the far-right National Rally. This campaign launch boosted his market price and solidified his candidacy.

Édouard Philippe officially launches 2027 presidential campaign

Édouard Philippe jumps to 27%8%

Philippe formally announced his candidacy, positioning himself as the main centrist contender against the far right, which led to a significant increase in his market price and solidified his campaign.

Jean-Luc Mélenchon announces fourth presidential campaign

Jean-Luc Mélenchon officially declared his candidacy for the 2027 presidential election, confirming his participation and influencing his market price.

Former French PM Édouard Philippe officially launches 2027 presidential campaign

Édouard Philippe jumps to 21%5%

Philippe formally announced his candidacy, positioning himself as the main centrist contender against the far right, which increased his market probability significantly.

Bruno Retailleau announces surveillance of LFI-led cities

Bruno Retailleau rises to 6%1%

Retailleau launched an observatory to monitor cities governed by La France Insoumise, positioning himself against Jean-Luc Mélenchon and signaling his presidential ambitions, impacting his market support.

Bruno Retailleau officially endorsed as Les Républicains candidate for 2027 presidential election

Bruno Retailleau plunges to 3%25%

Bruno Retailleau secured the official backing of Les Républicains to run in the 2027 presidential election, marking his entry as a key center-right contender and influencing his market price.

David Lisnard announces departure from Les Républicains and presidential candidacy

David Lisnard drops to 4%13%

David Lisnard officially left Les Républicains and declared his candidacy for the 2027 presidential election, marking a significant move in the right-wing field and influencing his market price.

Bruno Retailleau launches observatory to monitor La France Insoumise-led cities

Bruno Retailleau jumps to 10%5%

Bruno Retailleau announced the creation of an observatory to document and denounce actions by cities led by La France Insoumise, positioning himself strongly against Jean-Luc Mélenchon and energizing his base.

David Lisnard announces departure from Les Républicains and presidential candidacy

David Lisnard drops to 4%13%

David Lisnard left Les Républicains and announced his candidacy for the 2027 presidential election, aiming to represent a new right-wing movement, which led to a decline in his market price due to fragmentation.

David Lisnard announces presidential candidacy and leaves Les Républicains

David Lisnard drops to 4%13%

David Lisnard officially announced his candidacy for the 2027 presidential election and his departure from Les Républicains, aiming to run under his own movement Nouvelle Énergie, impacting his market price.

David Lisnard officially announces 2027 presidential candidacy after leaving Les Républicains

David Lisnard dips to 3%1%

David Lisnard announced his candidacy for the 2027 presidential election on March 31, 2026, after quitting Les Républicains, which influenced his market price downward due to low national recognition.

Marine Le Pen convicted of embezzlement with five-year ban from office

Marine Le Pen drops to 10%6%

Marine Le Pen was convicted for embezzlement and sentenced to a five-year ban from holding public office, casting doubt on her eligibility for the 2027 presidential election and impacting her market price.

David Lisnard leaves The Republicans and announces presidential candidacy

David Lisnard dips to 3%1%

David Lisnard officially quit The Republicans party and declared his candidacy for the 2027 presidential election, citing disagreements over the candidate selection process, which impacted his market price downward.

Poll shows Édouard Philippe can beat Jordan Bardella in second round

Édouard Philippe jumps to 25%5%

A poll indicated Philippe as the only candidate capable of defeating Bardella in a runoff, strengthening his position as the centrist favorite and boosting his market price.

David Lisnard re-elected mayor of Cannes with 81.1% vote, boosting presidential bid

David Lisnard drops to 5%12%

Lisnard's landslide municipal victory reinforced his reputation as a strong right-wing candidate, though his national support remained low, reflected in a modest market price.

David Lisnard announces presidential candidacy and departure from Les Républicains

David Lisnard plunges to 2%15%

David Lisnard formally declared his candidacy for the 2027 presidential election and left Les Républicains, marking a strategic shift and influencing his market price downward.

David Lisnard officially leaves Les Républicains party

David Lisnard dips to 2%2%

David Lisnard announced his departure from the Les Républicains party due to disagreements over candidate selection methods, signaling his independent presidential ambitions and causing a drop in his market share.

David Lisnard announces departure from Les Républicains and candidacy for 2027 presidential election

David Lisnard drops to 3%14%

David Lisnard left The Republicans party due to disagreements over candidate selection and declared his independent candidacy, which led to a decline in his market price reflecting lower national recognition.

David Lisnard leaves Les Républicains and announces presidential candidacy

David Lisnard drops to 3%14%

Lisnard’s departure from the party and declaration of candidacy introduced a new right-wing contender, fragmenting the conservative vote and impacting his market price downward.

Marine Le Pen barred from running for French president due to embezzlement conviction

Jordan Bardella drops to 27%7%

Marine Le Pen was sentenced to a five-year ban from running for political office following a conviction for embezzlement of European Parliament funds, effectively disqualifying her from the 2027 presidential election and elevating Jordan Bardella as the likely far-right candidate.

David Lisnard quits Les Républicains and declares presidential candidacy

David Lisnard dips to 2%3%

David Lisnard officially left Les Républicains and announced his candidacy for the 2027 presidential election, causing a drop in his market price due to party split.

David Lisnard announces 2027 presidential candidacy after leaving Les Républicains

David Lisnard plunges to 2%15%

David Lisnard officially declared his candidacy after departing from Les Républicains, aiming to represent a new right-wing movement. His announcement affected his market price due to lower national recognition.

Poll shows Édouard Philippe leading against far-right rivals

Édouard Philippe jumps to 20%6%

A poll by Elabe showed Édouard Philippe leading in head-to-head matchups against Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella, boosting market confidence in his candidacy and increasing his price.

David Lisnard announces departure from The Republicans over candidate selection

David Lisnard dips to 3%2%

David Lisnard announced his departure from The Republicans party due to disagreements over the presidential candidate selection process, reflecting internal party tensions and impacting his market price.

Édouard Philippe wins re-election as mayor of Le Havre, boosting presidential bid

Édouard Philippe rises to 21%2%

Édouard Philippe’s re-election as mayor of Le Havre in March 2026 reinforced his status as a leading presidential candidate, stabilizing and boosting his market price as a credible centrist contender.

Édouard Philippe reelected as mayor of Le Havre, strengthening presidential bid

Édouard Philippe rises to 24%4%

Philippe's reelection as mayor of Le Havre reinforced his political standing and campaign momentum for the 2027 presidential election, positively impacting his market price.

Edouard Philippe reelected mayor of Le Havre, boosting presidential bid

Édouard Philippe jumps to 21%7%

Philippe's reelection as mayor of Le Havre strengthened his credentials and positioned him as a leading candidate to challenge the far right in the 2027 presidential election, positively impacting his market standing.

Édouard Philippe re-elected mayor of Le Havre, boosting presidential bid

Édouard Philippe jumps to 21%5%

Philippe's re-election as mayor reinforced his political credibility and campaign momentum, stabilizing and increasing his market probability as a leading centrist candidate for the presidency.

David Lisnard announces presidential candidacy and leaves Les Républicains

David Lisnard drops to 4%13%

David Lisnard officially announced his candidacy for the 2027 presidential election and left the Les Républicains party, criticizing its candidate selection process, which led to a decline in his market price.

Édouard Philippe wins first round of Le Havre municipal elections

Édouard Philippe jumps to 23%9%

Édouard Philippe secured a strong lead in the first round of municipal elections in Le Havre, reinforcing his local political base and presidential ambitions.

David Lisnard re-elected mayor of Cannes with strong majority

David Lisnard drops to 5%12%

David Lisnard's re-election as mayor with over 81% of the vote bolstered his political profile ahead of his presidential bid, contributing to his market price increase.

David Lisnard announces departure from Les Républicains and presidential candidacy

David Lisnard drops to 3%14%

Lisnard left Les Républicains and declared his candidacy for the 2027 presidential election, aiming to represent a new right-wing movement, which led to a decline in his market price due to fragmentation.

Édouard Philippe re-elected mayor of Le Havre, boosting presidential bid

Philippe's re-election as mayor reinforced his credentials as a credible centrist candidate, stabilizing and boosting his market price ahead of the presidential election.

Far-right’s presidential candidate to be decided after Marine Le Pen’s appeal ruling

Jordan Bardella plunges to 3%23%

The Paris court of appeal was scheduled to deliver its ruling on Marine Le Pen’s corruption case on July 7, 2026, which would determine if Jordan Bardella would replace her as the National Rally’s presidential candidate, impacting Bardella’s market position.

Bruno Retailleau announces 2027 presidential candidacy

Bruno Retailleau rises to 33%3%

Bruno Retailleau publicly announced his intention to run for the 2027 presidential election, reinforcing his market position as the Republican candidate.

Dominique de Villepin gains renewed popularity amid international commentary

Dominique de Villepin rises to 4%1%

Dominique de Villepin regained favor with the French public, topping a poll of favorite political figures in May 2025 and maintaining steady popularity into 2026, though without official candidacy announcement. This sustained his market presence despite low price.

Bruno Retailleau announces candidacy for 2027 presidential election

Bruno Retailleau rises to 7%4%

Retailleau declared his intention to run and later secured the official backing of Les Républicains, positioning himself as the conservative candidate and impacting his market price.

Bruno Retailleau announces presidential run

Bruno Retailleau plunges to 3%25%

Bruno Retailleau declared his candidacy for the 2027 presidential election and later secured his party's backing, positioning himself as the main conservative candidate and impacting his market standing.

Bruno Retailleau announces 2027 presidential run

Bruno Retailleau plunges to 3%25%

Bruno Retailleau, leader of the conservative Republicans party, declared his candidacy, positioning himself as a right-wing contender with a tough stance on immigration and security, influencing his market price.

François Hollande hints at possible 2027 presidential run

François Hollande jumps to 8%5%

Former President François Hollande suggested he might run in the 2027 presidential election, increasing his media presence and slightly improving his market position.

Edouard Philippe reelected mayor of Le Havre, strengthening presidential bid

Édouard Philippe rises to 21%3%

Edouard Philippe's reelection as mayor of Le Havre reinforced his position as a leading center-right candidate for the presidency, stabilizing and slightly increasing his market price.

Édouard Philippe prepares seriously for 2027 presidential run

Édouard Philippe jumps to 22%6%

Philippe publicly stated he was preparing for the 2027 election in a serious but relaxed manner, indicating his commitment and increasing his visibility and support in the market.

French prosecutors seek to uphold ban on Marine Le Pen's presidential candidacy

Marine Le Pen drops to 9%7%

Prosecutors requested the appeals court to maintain the ban on Marine Le Pen running for president due to embezzlement charges, creating uncertainty around her candidacy and negatively impacting her market price.

Édouard Philippe announces presidential campaign launch

Édouard Philippe dips to 19%2%

Édouard Philippe officially launched his campaign for the 2027 presidential election, positioning himself as the leading centrist candidate to counter the far-right National Rally, which was reflected in a market price around 19%.

Marine Le Pen's appeal trial begins, presidential bid at risk

Marine Le Pen dips to 9%1%

Marine Le Pen's appeal trial started in January 2026 to contest her conviction and ban from running in 2027. The trial's outcome is critical for her candidacy and the far-right's electoral prospects.

Jordan Bardella criticizes Trump’s Greenland policy, signaling political distancing

Jordan Bardella jumps to 31%5%

Jordan Bardella publicly denounced U.S. President Donald Trump’s approach to Greenland, calling it 'commercial blackmail' and warning against subjugation. This move indicated Bardella’s effort to assert an independent nationalist stance, which helped maintain his market support amid Le Pen’s legal troubles.

Marine Le Pen's appeal trial begins, threatening 2027 candidacy

Marine Le Pen drops to 9%7%

Marine Le Pen's appeal trial started in January 2026, determining whether she would be eligible to run in the 2027 presidential election after her 2025 conviction barred her from public office. This legal uncertainty contributed to her market price decline from 16% to 9%, with her party's leadership shifting support to Jordan Bardella.

Marine Le Pen begins appeal trial against embezzlement conviction

Marine Le Pen started her appeal trial aiming to overturn the conviction that barred her from running for office, creating legal uncertainty around her candidacy and affecting market sentiment.

Édouard Philippe officially launches 2027 presidential campaign

Édouard Philippe rises to 21%2%

Former Prime Minister Édouard Philippe officially launched his campaign for the 2027 presidential election, positioning himself as the main centrist candidate to challenge the far-right, which boosted his market price.

Jordan Bardella breaks with Marine Le Pen on key policy issue

Jordan Bardella, expected to be the National Rally's candidate if Marine Le Pen is banned, publicly diverged from Le Pen's line on a crucial policy, impacting perceptions of his candidacy and market price.

Jordan Bardella faces legal challenges amid assistant parliamentary funds scandal

Jordan Bardella plunges to 4%30%

Jordan Bardella was implicated in a parliamentary assistants scandal with a trial held in early 2026, leading to a decline in his market price from 34% to 4% by July 2026, reflecting diminished electoral prospects.

Gabriel Attal appointed Prime Minister of France

Gabriel Attal jumps to 16%11%

Gabriel Attal was named Prime Minister in January 2026, becoming the youngest to hold the position. This elevated his national profile and led to a brief increase in his market price.

Marine Le Pen’s appeal trial opens in Paris, threatening her 2027 presidential bid

Marine Le Pen drops to 7%9%

Marine Le Pen appeared in court to appeal her conviction for misusing EU funds, with a potential ban from holding office that could prevent her from running in 2027. This legal uncertainty caused her market price to drop sharply, while Jordan Bardella's price rose as he was seen as the likely successor.

Édouard Philippe positions himself as natural successor to Macron

Édouard Philippe, former prime minister and leader in Macron's party Renaissance, worked to establish himself as the natural choice successor to Emmanuel Macron, influencing his market standing.

Edouard Philippe distances himself from Macron, hints at early presidential bid

Edouard Philippe publicly distanced himself from Emmanuel Macron and suggested readiness for an early presidential election, increasing his market support.

Jordan Bardella distances himself from Trump over Greenland tariff dispute

Jordan Bardella drops to 26%5%

Jordan Bardella criticized U.S. President Trump's Greenland tariff threats, signaling a shift in his stance and possibly affecting his support among nationalist voters, reflected in minor price fluctuations.

Dominique de Villepin investigated over gifts received as foreign minister

Dominique de Villepin plunges to 8%33%

Dominique de Villepin was investigated for charges related to gifts received during his tenure as foreign minister, causing a sharp decline in his market price and damaging his presidential prospects.

Dominique de Villepin accelerates preparations for 2027 presidential run

Dominique de Villepin plunges to 10%31%

In mid-December 2025, Dominique de Villepin signed a lease for campaign headquarters in Paris and intensified his campaign organization, signaling serious intent despite low polling. His market price dropped sharply from 41% to 10% reflecting uncertainty about his viability.

Investigation opened into Dominique de Villepin over gifts received as foreign minister

Dominique de Villepin drops to 3%5%

A preliminary investigation was launched against Dominique de Villepin concerning alleged gifts received during his tenure as foreign minister, negatively impacting his presidential prospects and market price.

Poll shows far-right leader Jordan Bardella leading 2027 presidential race

Jordan Bardella drops to 27%7%

A November 2025 Odoxa poll predicted Jordan Bardella as the frontrunner for the 2027 French presidential election, boosting his market price and establishing him as the dominant far-right figure amid Marine Le Pen's legal troubles.

Poll shows Jordan Bardella leading 2027 presidential race

A poll by Odoxa released in November 2025 showed far-right leader Jordan Bardella as the frontrunner for the 2027 French presidential election, boosting his market price and establishing him as a dominant figure despite the crowded field.

Poll shows Jordan Bardella as frontrunner for 2027 presidential election

Jordan Bardella drops to 28%6%

A poll by Odoxa indicated Jordan Bardella as the leading candidate for the 2027 election, reflecting his rise after Le Pen's ban. This boosted Bardella's market price as he became the favored far-right candidate.

Dominique de Villepin launches new political party 'Humanist France'

Dominique de Villepin plunges to 3%38%

Former Prime Minister Dominique de Villepin announced the creation of a new political party, Humanist France, aiming to unite French citizens across political lines. This announcement caused a sharp drop in his market price from 41% to 3%, reflecting skepticism about his electoral prospects despite his popularity.

Jean-Luc Mélenchon announces 2027 presidential candidacy

Mélenchon, leader of La France Insoumise, declared his intention to run in the 2027 election, marking his fourth bid. This announcement confirmed his role as a major left-wing candidate, impacting his market probability positively.

No clear dominant candidate emerges in fractured former majority coalition

A report highlighted the lack of a 'natural' candidate dominating the fractured former majority coalition ahead of the 2027 election, reflecting political uncertainty and contributing to market volatility among candidates like Édouard Philippe and others.

Gabriel Attal proposes major pension reform ahead of 2027 election

Gabriel Attal publicly proposed a deep reform of the French pension system, signaling his early positioning for the 2027 presidential race and boosting his profile among voters concerned with social policy.

Dominique de Villepin officially joins the 2027 presidential race

Dominique de Villepin plunges to 8%33%

Dominique de Villepin formally announced his candidacy for the 2027 presidential election, which initially caused a surge in his market price before it declined due to subsequent events and investigations.

Marine Le Pen's appeal trial begins in Paris over EU funds misuse

Marine Le Pen drops to 11%5%

Marine Le Pen's appeal trial opened, raising questions about her eligibility for the 2027 presidential race. The trial's outcome could bar her from running, causing market uncertainty and impacting her and Jordan Bardella's prices.

Marine Le Pen convicted and banned from 2027 presidential run

Marine Le Pen drops to 10%6%

Marine Le Pen was convicted of embezzlement and banned from holding public office for five years, effectively barring her from the 2027 presidential election. This legal setback shifted far-right support towards Jordan Bardella, impacting their market probabilities.

Poll shows Jordan Bardella leading 2027 presidential race

Jordan Bardella drops to 27%7%

A November 2025 poll by Odoxa showed far-right leader Jordan Bardella as the frontrunner for the 2027 French presidential election, boosting his market price and establishing him as a dominant figure despite the crowded field.

Édouard Philippe announces presidential ambitions at party meeting in Reims

Édouard Philippe rises to 23%2%

Édouard Philippe reaffirmed his intention to run for president in April 2027 during a party gathering in Reims, signaling the start of his campaign phase and boosting his market position as a leading centrist candidate.