Trader consensus on Polymarket favors under 40mm total precipitation in Seoul for April at 36.5% implied probability, reflecting Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) observations of exceptionally dry conditions through mid-month, with accumulated rainfall near zero—far below the historical April baseline of 65-80mm. Persistent high-pressure systems and unseasonably warm temperatures, exceeding 25°C in recent days, have suppressed convective activity and moisture influx from the Yellow Sea, limiting rain events despite occasional forecasts for light showers. Ensemble forecast models from KMA indicate low precipitation potential for the remaining two weeks, though a shift to frontal systems could elevate totals toward the 65-70mm outcome (14.5%); watch daily KMA updates for evolving steering patterns.