The Supreme Court’s June 2026 grant of certiorari in consolidated challenges to assault-weapons restrictions in Cook County, Illinois, and Connecticut has positioned the conservative majority to extend its post-Bruen expansion of Second Amendment protections to AR-15-style semiautomatic rifles. Recent filings reinforce trader expectations: the Trump Justice Department’s September amicus brief argues these firearms qualify as arms “in common use” for lawful purposes, while petitioners cite surveys estimating tens of millions in circulation. Lower courts upheld the bans, yet signals from Justices Kavanaugh and others, combined with the Court’s track record on gun cases, have produced strong market consensus that categorical prohibitions will fall when arguments occur this fall and a decision arrives by mid-2027. Remaining uncertainty centers on whether any narrower grounds could preserve limited restrictions.