**No Supreme Court vacancy is expected in 2026, with traders pricing that outcome at 74.5%.** The dominant driver is Justice Samuel Alito’s August 2026 confirmation that he will serve another term, which directly countered June retirement speculation triggered by an erroneous NPR report. At age 76, Alito’s decision aligns with the absence of public retirement signals from the other eight justices, including 78-year-old Clarence Thomas, who has hired clerks through the October 2027 term. No health disclosures or official announcements point to an opening before year-end, and the court remains at its full nine-member complement. Midterm Senate dynamics could affect future confirmation prospects, yet they have not prompted any justice to accelerate a departure in the current calendar year.