Trader consensus prices a Supreme Court vacancy in 2026 at 57% Yes, reflecting heightened speculation around retirements by aging conservative justices Samuel Alito, 76, and Clarence Thomas, 78, amid President Trump's second term and Republican Senate control. Alito's recent treatment for dehydration after feeling ill at an early April event fueled rumors, while Trump stated this week he is "prepared" for one to three openings, citing Ruth Bader Ginsburg's untimely passing as a cautionary lesson. No official announcements have emerged, but historical patterns show justices often time exits for favorable confirmation windows before midterms, with the current 6-3 majority incentivizing strategic transitions to install younger allies before potential shifts. Upcoming term previews and health updates could sway odds further.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयानया
नया
31 दिस, 2026
नया
नया
31 दिस, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one seat on the United States Supreme Court becomes vacant between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Trader consensus prices a Supreme Court vacancy in 2026 at 57% Yes, reflecting heightened speculation around retirements by aging conservative justices Samuel Alito, 76, and Clarence Thomas, 78, amid President Trump's second term and Republican Senate control. Alito's recent treatment for dehydration after feeling ill at an early April event fueled rumors, while Trump stated this week he is "prepared" for one to three openings, citing Ruth Bader Ginsburg's untimely passing as a cautionary lesson. No official announcements have emerged, but historical patterns show justices often time exits for favorable confirmation windows before midterms, with the current 6-3 majority incentivizing strategic transitions to install younger allies before potential shifts. Upcoming term previews and health updates could sway odds further.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one seat on the United States Supreme Court becomes vacant between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
बाज़ार खुला: Dec 15, 2025, 7:18 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$3,651समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Dec 15, 2025, 7:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one seat on the United States Supreme Court becomes vacant between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Trader consensus prices a Supreme Court vacancy in 2026 at 57% Yes, reflecting heightened speculation around retirements by aging conservative justices Samuel Alito, 76, and Clarence Thomas, 78, amid President Trump's second term and Republican Senate control. Alito's recent treatment for dehydration after feeling ill at an early April event fueled rumors, while Trump stated this week he is "prepared" for one to three openings, citing Ruth Bader Ginsburg's untimely passing as a cautionary lesson. No official announcements have emerged, but historical patterns show justices often time exits for favorable confirmation windows before midterms, with the current 6-3 majority incentivizing strategic transitions to install younger allies before potential shifts. Upcoming term previews and health updates could sway odds further.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one seat on the United States Supreme Court becomes vacant between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
वॉल्यूम
$3,651समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Dec 15, 2025, 7:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a Supreme Court vacancy in 2026 at 57% Yes, reflecting heightened speculation around retirements by aging conservative justices Samuel Alito, 76, and Clarence Thomas, 78, amid President Trump's second term and Republican Senate control. Alito's recent treatment for dehydration after feeling ill at an early April event fueled rumors, while Trump stated this week he is "prepared" for one to three openings, citing Ruth Bader Ginsburg's untimely passing as a cautionary lesson. No official announcements have emerged, but historical patterns show justices often time exits for favorable confirmation windows before midterms, with the current 6-3 majority incentivizing strategic transitions to install younger allies before potential shifts. Upcoming term previews and health updates could sway odds further.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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