Traders assign a 95.8% implied probability against Donald Trump resigning by December 31, 2026, reflecting the absence of verifiable health concerns, legal pressures, or institutional signals that would compel an early exit during his second term. Public statements from administration officials emphasize completion of the full term, while midterm election dynamics and ongoing policy priorities such as foreign policy negotiations show no indication of voluntary departure. Historical patterns of presidential tenure further support this consensus, as sitting presidents rarely resign absent acute crises. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include a sudden medical event, sustained congressional investigations producing bipartisan pressure, or an unexpected post-election calculation by Trump himself.