Trump's second term, which began with his January 2025 inauguration, shows no procedural, health-related, or political developments that would prompt resignation by the end of 2026. Traders assign a 96.2% probability to "No" based on the historical rarity of presidential resignations, Trump's demonstrated resilience through prior controversies, and his active engagement in governance, including recent foreign policy actions and public appearances. With roughly five months remaining in the window, structural barriers such as Senate confirmation dynamics for a successor and lack of bipartisan pressure reinforce this consensus. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include a sudden medical event, major legal development, or unforeseen personal decision, though none have materialized in verifiable reporting.