Despite the ongoing U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on Iranian military targets since late February 2026—including the killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei—and Iran's retaliatory attacks that killed three U.S. service members early in the conflict, trader consensus prices a full-scale U.S. ground invasion before 2027 at just 32.5%, reflected in the 67.5% "No" odds. The April 12 collapse of direct U.S.-Iran ceasefire talks in Islamabad prompted a U.S. naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz starting April 13, yet no ground troop deployments into Iran have materialized amid congressional war powers debates and diplomatic pushes for a second negotiation round. High invasion barriers, including logistical challenges, domestic opposition, and focus on air-naval pressure, sustain the low-probability assessment, though escalation risks persist ahead of any breakthroughs.