Recent U.S.-Israel military operations against Iran, including airstrikes on nuclear and military sites that began in February 2026, have relied on air and missile power rather than ground forces, reflecting explicit avoidance of large-scale invasion due to munitions shortages, risks of overextension, and lessons from prior interventions. Ceasefire agreements and a June 2026 memorandum of understanding on the Strait of Hormuz have contained escalation to limited exchanges and naval blockades, with ongoing diplomatic talks and pauses in strikes as of mid-August 2026. Traders price an 83.5% chance of no U.S. invasion before 2027 around these constraints and the absence of announced ground commitments, though renewed shipping attacks or leadership shifts could alter the dynamic before year-end.