Recent U.S.-Colombia security cooperation and aligned policy priorities under President Abelardo de la Espriella have reinforced trader expectations against any 2026 invasion. The new administration has pursued joint counter-narcotics operations, accepted U.S. security assistance, and signed agreements on critical minerals and energy, shifting from prior frictions toward partnership against armed groups and trafficking networks. Diplomatic visits, including recent talks on potential bases and equipment with Colombian consent, underscore mutual interests rather than confrontation. Historical reliance on economic tools like tariffs over direct force further supports the 97.7% implied probability for No. Unforeseen escalations, such as a major border crisis with Venezuela, collapse of cooperation, or unilateral U.S. action without Bogotá’s approval, remain the primary low-probability paths that could still alter outcomes before year-end.