Trader consensus reflects a 92.5% implied probability against a U.S. invasion of Mexico in 2026, anchored by sustained bilateral security cooperation despite early-year escalatory rhetoric. President Trump's January threats of land strikes against cartels and March calls for a Latin American military coalition have not materialized into action, as Mexican President Sheinbaum ruled out U.S. intervention following direct talks, ramped up domestic anti-cartel operations—yielding murder rate drops of 14-32%—and extradited over 90 leaders stateside, including after El Mencho's February death. Yesterday's Treasury sanctions on cartel casinos and Sheinbaum's pushback on migrant detention issues highlight diplomatic and economic pressures over military ones, with sovereignty concerns, congressional hurdles, and backlash risks preserving high barriers to invasion barring major provocations like cartel attacks on U.S. soil.