Strong bilateral security cooperation between the United States and Mexico, including recent military-to-military meetings, joint counter-cartel operations, drone technology sharing, and coordinated border patrols, anchors trader consensus against a U.S. invasion in 2026. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has repeatedly rejected any unilateral U.S. military presence on Mexican soil as a violation of sovereignty, while both governments prioritize diplomatic channels and intelligence exchanges over escalation. Deep economic interdependence, large numbers of U.S. citizens in Mexico, and the absence of formal invasion plans further reduce the likelihood of an offensive aimed at territorial control. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include a major diplomatic rupture or cartel-linked attacks prompting limited strikes, though these would need to meet the market's specific criteria for a full-scale offensive by year's end.