Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Mojtaba Khamenei at 67.3% implied probability to remain Iran's Supreme Leader by December 31, 2026, following his swift March 8 appointment by the Assembly of Experts after his father Ali Khamenei's death in U.S.-Israeli strikes on February 28. Backed by IRGC hardliners overriding reported paternal reservations about his qualifications, his selection signaled regime continuity amid war. Recent April reports of severe facial and leg injuries from the same strikes, leaving him recovering in Qom and limiting public appearances, have introduced uncertainty, preventing higher odds. Reza Pahlavi trails at 9.5% on speculation of regime collapse via ongoing Hormuz blockade and escalation, while insiders like Ghalibaf and Rouhani linger below 10% absent major shifts.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया2026 के अंत में ईरान के नेता?
2026 के अंत में ईरान के नेता?
मोज़तबा खामनेई 67.3%
रज़ा पहलवी 10%
मोहम्मद-बाघेर ग़ालिबाफ 6.7%
हसन रूहानी 4.4%
$6,511,585 वॉल्यूम
$6,511,585 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
मोज़तबा खामनेई
67%
रज़ा पहलवी
10%
मोहम्मद-बाघेर ग़ालिबाफ
7%
हसन रूहानी
4%
कोई राष्ट्राध्यक्ष नहीं
3%
हसन खोमेनी
2%
अब्बास अराक़ची
2%
अलिरेज़ा अराफ़ी
1%
अहमद वाहिदी
1%
मोहम्मद खातामी
1%
सईद जल्लीली
1%
मरीयम रजवी
1%
मसूद पजेश्कियान
<1%
मोहम्मद मिरबाकिरी
<1%
सादेग लारीजानी
<1%
नविद शोमाली
<1%
महमूद अहमदीनेजाद
<1%
अली असगर हेज़ाज़ी
<1%
हसन शरियतमदारी
<1%
मसूद रजवी
<1%
सैयद हुसैन मौसवीयन
<1%
रज़ा पीरज़ादेह
<1%
मुस्तफा हिजरी
<1%
अली मुतहरी
<1%
घोलाम-अली हद्दाद-अदेल
<1%
मुस्तफा पूर्मोहम्मदी
<1%
सादेग महसूली
<1%
मोसेन अराकी
<1%
नासिर होसेनी
<1%
अहमद हुसैनी खोरासानी
<1%
मोज़तबा खामनेई 67.3%
रज़ा पहलवी 10%
मोहम्मद-बाघेर ग़ालिबाफ 6.7%
हसन रूहानी 4.4%
$6,511,585 वॉल्यूम
$6,511,585 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
मोज़तबा खामनेई
$1,520,613 वॉल्यूम
67%
रज़ा पहलवी
$153,341 वॉल्यूम
10%
मोहम्मद-बाघेर ग़ालिबाफ
$168,517 वॉल्यूम
7%
हसन रूहानी
$280,159 वॉल्यूम
4%
कोई राष्ट्राध्यक्ष नहीं
$369,656 वॉल्यूम
3%
हसन खोमेनी
$731,748 वॉल्यूम
2%
अब्बास अराक़ची
$104,322 वॉल्यूम
2%
अलिरेज़ा अराफ़ी
$780,106 वॉल्यूम
1%
अहमद वाहिदी
$200,123 वॉल्यूम
1%
मोहम्मद खातामी
$246,438 वॉल्यूम
1%
सईद जल्लीली
$47,395 वॉल्यूम
1%
मरीयम रजवी
$256,925 वॉल्यूम
1%
मसूद पजेश्कियान
$244,586 वॉल्यूम
<1%
मोहम्मद मिरबाकिरी
$275,945 वॉल्यूम
<1%
सादेग लारीजानी
$175,968 वॉल्यूम
<1%
नविद शोमाली
$54,813 वॉल्यूम
<1%
महमूद अहमदीनेजाद
$51,221 वॉल्यूम
<1%
अली असगर हेज़ाज़ी
$76,401 वॉल्यूम
<1%
हसन शरियतमदारी
$150,198 वॉल्यूम
<1%
मसूद रजवी
$23,683 वॉल्यूम
<1%
सैयद हुसैन मौसवीयन
$34,176 वॉल्यूम
<1%
रज़ा पीरज़ादेह
$28,358 वॉल्यूम
<1%
मुस्तफा हिजरी
$21,009 वॉल्यूम
<1%
अली मुतहरी
$52,028 वॉल्यूम
<1%
घोलाम-अली हद्दाद-अदेल
$36,754 वॉल्यूम
<1%
मुस्तफा पूर्मोहम्मदी
$68,508 वॉल्यूम
<1%
सादेग महसूली
$48,612 वॉल्यूम
<1%
मोसेन अराकी
$31,694 वॉल्यूम
<1%
नासिर होसेनी
$15,944 वॉल्यूम
<1%
अहमद हुसैनी खोरासानी
$25,482 वॉल्यूम
<1%
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Mojtaba Khamenei at 67.3% implied probability to remain Iran's Supreme Leader by December 31, 2026, following his swift March 8 appointment by the Assembly of Experts after his father Ali Khamenei's death in U.S.-Israeli strikes on February 28. Backed by IRGC hardliners overriding reported paternal reservations about his qualifications, his selection signaled regime continuity amid war. Recent April reports of severe facial and leg injuries from the same strikes, leaving him recovering in Qom and limiting public appearances, have introduced uncertainty, preventing higher odds. Reza Pahlavi trails at 9.5% on speculation of regime collapse via ongoing Hormuz blockade and escalation, while insiders like Ghalibaf and Rouhani linger below 10% absent major shifts.
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
बाज़ार खुला: Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$6,511,585समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Mojtaba Khamenei at 67.3% implied probability to remain Iran's Supreme Leader by December 31, 2026, following his swift March 8 appointment by the Assembly of Experts after his father Ali Khamenei's death in U.S.-Israeli strikes on February 28. Backed by IRGC hardliners overriding reported paternal reservations about his qualifications, his selection signaled regime continuity amid war. Recent April reports of severe facial and leg injuries from the same strikes, leaving him recovering in Qom and limiting public appearances, have introduced uncertainty, preventing higher odds. Reza Pahlavi trails at 9.5% on speculation of regime collapse via ongoing Hormuz blockade and escalation, while insiders like Ghalibaf and Rouhani linger below 10% absent major shifts.
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
वॉल्यूम
$6,511,585समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Mojtaba Khamenei at 67.3% implied probability to remain Iran's Supreme Leader by December 31, 2026, following his swift March 8 appointment by the Assembly of Experts after his father Ali Khamenei's death in U.S.-Israeli strikes on February 28. Backed by IRGC hardliners overriding reported paternal reservations about his qualifications, his selection signaled regime continuity amid war. Recent April reports of severe facial and leg injuries from the same strikes, leaving him recovering in Qom and limiting public appearances, have introduced uncertainty, preventing higher odds. Reza Pahlavi trails at 9.5% on speculation of regime collapse via ongoing Hormuz blockade and escalation, while insiders like Ghalibaf and Rouhani linger below 10% absent major shifts.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
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