Trader consensus reflects the Iranian regime's institutional resilience amid the 2026 Iran war, with U.S. and Israeli airstrikes suppressing missile capabilities but failing to spark internal collapse. Recent crackdowns—including a surge in executions tied to prior protests and arrests of dissenters—have quelled unrest, while leadership appears stable following reported transitions after Supreme Leader Khamenei's assassination earlier this year. No major defections, uprisings, or IRGC fractures have emerged in the past 30 days, despite economic pressures from sanctions and Strait of Hormuz tensions. Potential shifters include renewed escalations, mass protests, or diplomatic breakdowns before May 31 resolution, though such scenarios remain low-probability per skin-in-the-game pricing.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाक्या ईरानी शासन 31 मई तक गिर जाएगा?
क्या ईरानी शासन 31 मई तक गिर जाएगा?
हाँ
$1,390,438 वॉल्यूम
$1,390,438 वॉल्यूम
31 मई, 2026
हाँ
$1,390,438 वॉल्यूम
$1,390,438 वॉल्यूम
31 मई, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus reflects the Iranian regime's institutional resilience amid the 2026 Iran war, with U.S. and Israeli airstrikes suppressing missile capabilities but failing to spark internal collapse. Recent crackdowns—including a surge in executions tied to prior protests and arrests of dissenters—have quelled unrest, while leadership appears stable following reported transitions after Supreme Leader Khamenei's assassination earlier this year. No major defections, uprisings, or IRGC fractures have emerged in the past 30 days, despite economic pressures from sanctions and Strait of Hormuz tensions. Potential shifters include renewed escalations, mass protests, or diplomatic breakdowns before May 31 resolution, though such scenarios remain low-probability per skin-in-the-game pricing.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
बाज़ार खुला: Apr 1, 2026, 12:20 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$1,390,438समाप्ति तिथि
31 मई, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Apr 1, 2026, 12:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus reflects the Iranian regime's institutional resilience amid the 2026 Iran war, with U.S. and Israeli airstrikes suppressing missile capabilities but failing to spark internal collapse. Recent crackdowns—including a surge in executions tied to prior protests and arrests of dissenters—have quelled unrest, while leadership appears stable following reported transitions after Supreme Leader Khamenei's assassination earlier this year. No major defections, uprisings, or IRGC fractures have emerged in the past 30 days, despite economic pressures from sanctions and Strait of Hormuz tensions. Potential shifters include renewed escalations, mass protests, or diplomatic breakdowns before May 31 resolution, though such scenarios remain low-probability per skin-in-the-game pricing.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
वॉल्यूम
$1,390,438समाप्ति तिथि
31 मई, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Apr 1, 2026, 12:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects the Iranian regime's institutional resilience amid the 2026 Iran war, with U.S. and Israeli airstrikes suppressing missile capabilities but failing to spark internal collapse. Recent crackdowns—including a surge in executions tied to prior protests and arrests of dissenters—have quelled unrest, while leadership appears stable following reported transitions after Supreme Leader Khamenei's assassination earlier this year. No major defections, uprisings, or IRGC fractures have emerged in the past 30 days, despite economic pressures from sanctions and Strait of Hormuz tensions. Potential shifters include renewed escalations, mass protests, or diplomatic breakdowns before May 31 resolution, though such scenarios remain low-probability per skin-in-the-game pricing.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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