Trader consensus on Polymarket prices two countries at 55% implied probability, driven by confirmed Israeli airstrikes on Iran—including the Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant auxiliary and Mahshahr petrochemical zone on April 4, and South Pars facility on April 6—followed by intensified operations against Lebanon since April 7. A US-brokered ceasefire with Iran took effect April 7, yet Israel launched Operation Eternal Darkness with heavy strikes on Beirut and southern Lebanon on April 8, killing hundreds amid Hezbollah clashes, and continued attacks as recently as April 15 despite historic direct Israel-Lebanon talks on April 14. The 38.5% on three reflects uncertainty over potential responses to Houthi missile launches from Yemen or Syrian border threats, while ≥4 at 8.5% underscores diplomatic de-escalation signals limiting broader expansion before month-end.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाअप्रैल में इज़राइल कितने देशों के खिलाफ सैन्य कार्रवाई करेगा?
अप्रैल में इज़राइल कितने देशों के खिलाफ सैन्य कार्रवाई करेगा?
2 55%
3 38%
≥4 9%
$101,404 वॉल्यूम
$101,404 वॉल्यूम
30 अप्रैल, 2026
2
55%
3
38%
≥4
9%
2 55%
3 38%
≥4 9%
$101,404 वॉल्यूम
$101,404 वॉल्यूम
30 अप्रैल, 2026
2
$24,336 वॉल्यूम
55%
3
$30,032 वॉल्यूम
38%
≥4
$39,570 वॉल्यूम
9%
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices two countries at 55% implied probability, driven by confirmed Israeli airstrikes on Iran—including the Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant auxiliary and Mahshahr petrochemical zone on April 4, and South Pars facility on April 6—followed by intensified operations against Lebanon since April 7. A US-brokered ceasefire with Iran took effect April 7, yet Israel launched Operation Eternal Darkness with heavy strikes on Beirut and southern Lebanon on April 8, killing hundreds amid Hezbollah clashes, and continued attacks as recently as April 15 despite historic direct Israel-Lebanon talks on April 14. The 38.5% on three reflects uncertainty over potential responses to Houthi missile launches from Yemen or Syrian border threats, while ≥4 at 8.5% underscores diplomatic de-escalation signals limiting broader expansion before month-end.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
बाज़ार खुला: Mar 27, 2026, 6:46 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$101,404समाप्ति तिथि
30 अप्रैल, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Mar 27, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices two countries at 55% implied probability, driven by confirmed Israeli airstrikes on Iran—including the Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant auxiliary and Mahshahr petrochemical zone on April 4, and South Pars facility on April 6—followed by intensified operations against Lebanon since April 7. A US-brokered ceasefire with Iran took effect April 7, yet Israel launched Operation Eternal Darkness with heavy strikes on Beirut and southern Lebanon on April 8, killing hundreds amid Hezbollah clashes, and continued attacks as recently as April 15 despite historic direct Israel-Lebanon talks on April 14. The 38.5% on three reflects uncertainty over potential responses to Houthi missile launches from Yemen or Syrian border threats, while ≥4 at 8.5% underscores diplomatic de-escalation signals limiting broader expansion before month-end.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
वॉल्यूम
$101,404समाप्ति तिथि
30 अप्रैल, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Mar 27, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices two countries at 55% implied probability, driven by confirmed Israeli airstrikes on Iran—including the Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant auxiliary and Mahshahr petrochemical zone on April 4, and South Pars facility on April 6—followed by intensified operations against Lebanon since April 7. A US-brokered ceasefire with Iran took effect April 7, yet Israel launched Operation Eternal Darkness with heavy strikes on Beirut and southern Lebanon on April 8, killing hundreds amid Hezbollah clashes, and continued attacks as recently as April 15 despite historic direct Israel-Lebanon talks on April 14. The 38.5% on three reflects uncertainty over potential responses to Houthi missile launches from Yemen or Syrian border threats, while ≥4 at 8.5% underscores diplomatic de-escalation signals limiting broader expansion before month-end.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
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